Berkshire's $397B Bet Against an Overheated Market

Post by inigyou » Mon, Jul 13, 2026, 11:18 AM UTC

abc123abc123 wrote: post #38

inigyou wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate that having children is apparently the only purpose anyone has in life because I don't have children or a purpose in life and I'm pretty sure I would be even more depressed if I had children.

Note that I am not arguing that children is the purpose in life for everyone. For some it is, for others it is not. I believe that the majority of child bearers are "on program" driven by their biological imperatives. I believe that among the voluntary non-children people (of which I am one) there's plenty of values, goals, hopes and aspirations. In fact, for me, life is so rich that that is why I do not want childre…

Post by pfortuny » Mon, Jul 13, 2026, 11:22 AM UTC

sph wrote: post #40

cmiles8 wrote: post #17

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Good advice. Ironically most long term folks that just buy low cost index funds and take a nap outperform most of the market stressing out daily on their next move. That’s the cruel reality of investing. When you factor in the opportunity cost of all that stress and managing an active portfolio the percentage of successful active portfolio managers likely falls down to single digits. Invest early, invest consistently…

Though I keep wondering if the ‘invest consistently whether the market goes up or down’ defeats the point of a stock market in the first place. People effectively keep throwing money at mediocre or failing endeavours, which magnifies any structural problem, and everything seems to keep going up whether it’s good news or bad news, until the bottom falls out. My reading might be wrong, but since 2020 there is no bad ne…

Post by le-mark » Mon, Jul 13, 2026, 11:23 AM UTC

abc123abc123 wrote: post #35

le-mark wrote: post #27

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The fact the AI emperor wears no clothes seems clear to me at least. The dot-com bubble looked obvious in 1997; it popped in 2000. Anyone shorting in '97-'98 was carried out on a stretcher before being vindicated. In fact 2000-2002 fell in three brutal legs over two years, and anyone who leveraged up after the first 25% leg was destroyed by the next two. My strat is to accumulate cash to buy the drop. The danger with…

This is the way. Did the same thing for 3 years before corona. Drop came, went all in, fast forward a year or two, we did not die, and the stocks were about 150%-200% higher. I'm doing the same thing now. Slowly starting to sell off the shares I have, putting the profit in bonds/interest accounts, when the bubble pops, I'll go all-in (phasing it in over a few quarters most likely) and then profit after 1-2 years.

Post by WJW » Mon, Jul 13, 2026, 11:24 AM UTC

cmiles8 wrote: post #17

sph wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How I view the market: Short term: high volatility and uncertainty, feels more like gambling at a casino Medium term: the world is too unstable, best to hold cash Long term: dollar cost averaging and time in the market always win so depending how long your horizon is, it’s a good time as any to invest Longer term: we all die

Good advice. Ironically most long term folks that just buy low cost index funds and take a nap outperform most of the market stressing out daily on their next move. That’s the cruel reality of investing. When you factor in the opportunity cost of all that stress and managing an active portfolio the percentage of successful active portfolio managers likely falls down to single digits. Invest early, invest consistently…

Post by iso1631 » Mon, Jul 13, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

BLKNSLVR wrote: post #34

bonesss wrote: post #7

It’s such an odd time investment wise… We have a blooming oil war that could take chunks of the global economy with it, booming and teetering credit levels threatening collapse, the “AI” companies have a lot of tinkerbell magic and impossible returns needed to justify their stocks, major cash rich tech giants are suddenly hands-out pockets-out for big money, and … well: Elon is the worlds richest man/CEO who also sha…

The thing I worry about is: what happens when an actual set of adults get back into the White House? That could well be the trigger for the crash of all crashes because they might actually bring some reality pins with them, which are the antithesis of the growing, in size and number, fantasy balloons of hot-air the current cough leadership cough is facilitating.