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I love LLMs, I hate hype

geohot.github.io

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Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#121

Post by andy99 »

SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

The funny thing about Fable, is we all but know it will be obsolete in a month or two. Between their embargo shenanigans (which IMO they could have avoided just by not pretending it was dangerous) and continuing to give access, whatever marginal advantage it had was essentially wasted.

It would have been an interesting experiment to charge more for it right away and see what the market would bear, rather than tease it for long enough for it to be presumably superseded any time now by whatever is next.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#122

Post by lacedeconstruct »

dolebirchwood wrote: post #118
lacedeconstruct wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't make sense, I enjoy making bread at home but it costs 10x and tastes like dog shit I dont want to spend my time perfecting the craft of making bread for my daily needs (maybe once in a while its a soothing activity), I want someone smarter than me to spend his entire life coming up and perfecting a solution and exerting more time and effort than I can afford and I am very happy to support him so I can st…

> This doesn't make sense Makes perfect sense to anyone good at using these models. What doesn't make sense is that analogy. Typing prompts isn't even close to as difficult to baking bread.

>Makes perfect sense to anyone good at using these models.

It doesn't really, because whenever I ask them what did they actually create, its always a shitty dashboard or a finance tracker or something derivative and worse than what is out there

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#123

Post by [deleted] »

fragmede wrote: post #84
pphysch wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Geohot is one of the (attempted) merchants, but maybe that is not going so well and he is changing his tune.

Not sure why you had to add the (attempted) qualifier. He started a company and is selling a box. That makes him a merchant. How successful that venture is, is a different question, but he absolutely is a merchant in this arena.

[deleted]

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#126

Post by InvertedRhodium »

dakolli wrote: post #104
fragmede wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe? I ran across an old pre-LLM project of mine recently, and past me was an asshole and didn't leave a readme for future me. Meanwhile post-LLM projects at least have a readme that the LLM generated for me or my agent to read and pick up context on. Being able to ask an agent what is this repo, what's going on here? Hey just make it do this, instead of toilsomely digging in and doing it tmmyself, seems to say tha…

The fact that you're even saying this it is probably an admission that you do think it's making you dumber. Most people I know, who are honest with themselves, have admitted to me that they feel like it's making them dumber or "zombifying" them. This is also well studied already, https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.08872 LLMs are poison for the brain, I'm almost certain of it, at least when used in the way most people are usi…

Socrates thought the same of reading and writing, that it would weaken the memory and isolate people from one another.

1966 saw the peak of calculator protests, where math teachers claimed similar things of calculators.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#127

Post by arjie »

ekidd wrote: post #71
dom96 wrote: post #39

I love LLMs too, but I am concerned about their cost. They are all still very subsidised. Is there any guarantee that I'll be able to run a Opus 4.8-level model on my personal computer before the big AI labs decide to hike up the prices?

You can maybe run a local Sonnet-4.5-ish-level model ( sort of) for less than the price of a new car, even at current massively inflated prices for fast RAM. This is probably not what you were looking for. But it's there. You could share one server between multiple developers. Maybe make a little AI co-op or something, with a pair of RTX Pro 6000 cards? Also, DeepSeek V4 Pro is cheap via any commodity API, and DeepSe…

I’ve got a pair of those cards and DS V4F is incredibly good. I’m happy I did what I did because I like this stuff but if you just want stuff then you are absolutely better off not spending $20k on two of these cards and using the API. This guy is absolutely correct.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#128

Post by datadrivenangel »

QuantumGood wrote: post #95
SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

Just to clarify your implication: Fable subscription usage was just (re)extended to July 19

And now their comment is good next week! The rug pull getting extended doesn't mean it won't come.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#130

Post by pianopatrick »

blauditore wrote: post #43
hamandcheese wrote: post #10

> where’s all this new magical software that the productivity improvements should imply? It's running, privately, in my homelab. I think we are entering what I call the "have it your way" era. If an open source project doesn't do exactly what you want it to do, fork it, or create a new version. It's too easy. This makes me a bit concerned about the future of open source. Upstreaming used to be worth it, since maintai…

You will likely end up in maintenance hell soon. This will likely not be much easier with AI because coding is not the hard/annoying part, it's the fact that you need to dust off every little project every time a tiny fix is needed, and that's a lot of toil in the long run.

Seems to me this would get easier or harder depending on how you write the code. Like if you write the code in something standard and unchanging like POSIX shell scripts or C99 or ES5 javascript, at least the ecosystem won't change out from under you. If you use rust or python or a bunch of node.js dependencies then you might have to edit the project just to keep up with ecosystem changes.
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