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Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom
161–170 of 197 posts
Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
But how do you even measure the ROI of tokens? I don’t think it’s possible, tokens aren’t fungible. You can spend millions on tokens that don’t contribute one bit to the company revenue, then spend $10 that will actually result in useful things
Tokens are like bandwidth. The more I see the more I get echos of the dotcom bubble.
Tokens are more like oil. There's a million different uses for them. The problem is finding enough them, in good quality, and getting them cheap enough that you don't spend more than they're worth. But they're definitely valuable and useful.
But really it's all more like the railroad panic of the 19th century. Investing too much, too soon, in something that does have promise, but not if you can't pay for it.
Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can someone even outline the AI bull case? I can’t fathom one at all. https://isaiprofitable.com/ The only profitable company is the one running the scam.
Do you use it or is this speculation? The AI tooling I used 12-24 months ago if frozen in time, monetized correctly is probably 100x the capability of what software could do before (And software was already eating the world long before AI). The bull case is that we just invented the 21st century equivalent of the printing press or electricity. And that website is the 19th century equivalent of someone criticizing ele…
> If anything it's a miracle that the US economy is so efficient that we can just skip all the small talk and bullshit and build out the infrastructure to support AI immediately.
This is a good take. But then it makes you think - China can build a data center cheaper. Their non-chip cost is likely much smaller. So if there is a down-cycle in chip and memory prices and/or the technology-progress slows, whoever can build horizontal capacity has the advantage.
We have been pushing to the frontier very fast. But there will be a lot of efficiencies found. The agentic use-case has some room to run even if models stay static ie inference needs continue to grow. This puts pressure on the edge that US has of pushing frontier at higher costs. This is likely the AI bear scenario.
Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom
#164You alarmists are getting all bent out of shape over nothing. Just think of this like the financial equivalent of a ring buffer or a doubly linked list, just good old data structures but with money instead of data. Nothing can go wrong with this, these things were designed by top people. Top people.
/s because Poe's law is increasingly inescapable
Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
The actual money is coming from big tech profits, debt, and rapidly growing AI revenue (Anthropic growing from $9b ARR to $60b+ ARR in a few months). A very small percentage is coming from Nvidia. And before someone tells me AI demand is fake and circular, my company is spending thousands on Anthropic a month, up from $0 in 2025. And no, we're not getting scammed by Anthropic or tokenmaxxing for no reason. We are get…
> my company is spending thousands on Anthropic a month The problem is that this is simply not enough. They need you to spend tens of thousands , probably closer to hundreds of thousands , before the numbers start making sense. > At minimum, my company is not part of this circular thing. You're in the blast radius. And if you don't have a plan for "what if Anthropic hikes the API rates by 10x or worse", you're in the…
Anthropic just made a profit. So it does seem to be enough.
Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom
#166Earlier quoted context omitted.
Someone had a model combining shorting with investigative journalism, a while back. They'd short, then release evidence showing that the company was way overvalued, then make their money when the stock price dropped.
i think you are talking about hindenburg research center
I was, but Wikipedia tells me it was preceded by Muddy Waters Research, and followed by Hunterbrook, both of which (unlike Hindenburg) are still active.
Interestingly, the Hunterbrook Wikipedia article says that Hunterbrook is unique, and the Muddy Waters Research Wikipedia article lists loads of other organisations. Perhaps someone should investigate…?
Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
... then it is a big deal.
Okay, but why? What's the actual thing that will happen?
They made huge investment commitments based on planned revenue. They'll go bankrupt (and tear much of the economy down, given how tied up everyone is in them) if they can't keep raising money to pay for these commitments or turn huge profits.
Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
What value?
I’m at a very fast growing startup with real revenue and Fable has let us avoid hiring probably 6-10 full time software engineers with full salary and benefits. We’re spending nowhere close to that. I’m the hiring manager and I’m closing the reqs. So.. great news for Anthropic, I’ll go ahead and let the elephant in the room go unaddressed
6-10 engineers for a startup seems suspect. Is this some sort of web app where there would be lots of training data? I’m not a web developer so I don’t know what else to call it besides web app or SaaS or whatever it’s called in that world.
Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tokens are like bandwidth. The more I see the more I get echos of the dotcom bubble.
Tokens are more like oil. There's a million different uses for them. The problem is finding enough them, in good quality, and getting them cheap enough that you don't spend more than they're worth. But they're definitely valuable and useful. But really it's all more like the railroad panic of the 19th century. Investing too much, too soon, in something that does have promise, but not if you can't pay for it.
It’s not like oil, because it’s not fungible
Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom
#170Earlier quoted context omitted.
> my company is spending thousands on Anthropic a month The problem is that this is simply not enough. They need you to spend tens of thousands , probably closer to hundreds of thousands , before the numbers start making sense. > At minimum, my company is not part of this circular thing. You're in the blast radius. And if you don't have a plan for "what if Anthropic hikes the API rates by 10x or worse", you're in the…
Anthropic just made a profit. So it does seem to be enough.
Anthropic and OAI are both looking for 1T valuations. Anthropic is projected* to make $500mil operating profit off 10bil annualized revenue. They need to grow these numbers 10-50x more for the valuation they're seeking to make sense.
Tough pill to swallow given they lack a moat and their compute is being subsidized by the companies they lease it from, all of which are INVESTED in Anthropic and have a desire for their growth story to look good because when they IPO it gives those same investors a better shot at making their money back.
That's the circular aspect of this whole scheme. Nobody makes their money back if the LLM company valuations get more realistic.