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Don't you mean extinct?

fabiensanglard.net

61–70 of 145 posts

Re: Don't you mean extinct?

#61
> It is more ok to refuse to take dependencies now. It used to be the go-to solution to avoid writing anything moderately complex. As recently as this morning, I asked an LLM to write a Levenshtein distance function instead of adding a dependency to my project.

The trap here is that LLMs love to YOLO out reinvented wheels and that leads to a lot of verbosity and untested complexity. Levenshtein distance is one thing, but I've seen an LLM try to hand roll an ORM which obviously will lead to buggier code and a context window bloated with irrelevant noise. Better, as always, to let the ORM maintainer leverage LLMs for the more local issue.

Re: Don't you mean extinct?

#62

I mostly like this article but > Those who refuse to use an LLM will fall behind because they won't be able to produce as much Seems like a silly and needlessly aggressive take. Fall behind what? Able to produce "as much" what? I've never been evaluated on volume in my life. Nor have co workers who were severely "behind" ever feared for their jobs.

> Fall behind what? Able to produce "as much" what? Customer meaningful features that move the needle on the business. I think this is strictly true. And not because LLMs can write code faster. I think it's true even if you're still writing most of your code by hand and using the LLM as an assistant. My anecdotal but decades-long observation is that most of the time=cost of a project comes not from writing code, but…

I think people are making a bad assumption that features = profit, and that we're going to be trapped in a red-queen race to move in place while shipping features at an astonishing rate. I don't think this is going to happen.

Before subscription services, you needed to add features because you had to justify to people why they should buy an upgrade. So yeah, it made sense to make as many features as possible to try to cast a wide net.

I think with software as a service, making features is not really the most important thing. Realistically, people buy software for what it does right now, not its future potential. Further, changing things out from underneath users tends to annoy them (pretty much EVERY time a service introduces a redesign, even if it's a good one, people initially hate it -- you're asking them to relearn a thing that was working perfectly fine).

Anyway, I think new software is going to win the same way it's always won, based on its utility, not based on shipping features at some sort of frantic rate.

Re: Don't you mean extinct?

#63
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I dislike this kind of take so much. It keeps being repeated as a truthism and a way of putting down people that don't do what the speaker wants. It's fine to disagree, but there's no need to get such a threatening tone. A lot of tech jobs seem to be only about sheer output volume, with quality (maintenability, availability, security, generally understanding what the thing is doing) not mattering much. In that c…

My experience with regard to quality is quite the opposite. With LLM at my disposal, I had the time- and effort-budget to expand test suites considerably, I was even able to attack a somewhat thorny question of reproducible builds on MSVC, which is not exactly friendly towards determinism. These tasks would take me personally so much time that I would have to set them aside, at the cost of output quality.

Likewise - it's not just about generating production code faster; it's now feasible to create all kinds of experiments, test fixtures, visualizers, analyzers, and support software you never would have had time for before, which you can use to improve your process and create a better product.

I recently had to evaluate some data one of my coworkers had produced, to decide whether some process was going to be feasible. It would have taken probably a couple of weeks for me to dig through it all by hand, so he whipped up a quick little interactive web app that let me explore the data with all the connections and context visible, and I reviewed it much more quickly. A single-use application for a single user - what a luxury! - and it took less time to create than the time I saved by using it.

I will check in Monday morning on the result of an A/B test I set running over the weekend, comparing a reimplementation of a certain tool with its original. The test spins up AWS boxes, pulls code repos, compiles them, runs analysis, recovers from errors and maintains a retry queue, etc., etc., and ultimately collates the results and generates a report. I didn't write a line of this! I wouldn't have written anything nearly so sophisticated, and the results I'd have gotten would have been far less useful. But here we are: I tell the computer "make it so", and I get a really valuable test which runs itself while I enjoy my life, and we'll be able to switch to the new tool with confidence.

Re: Don't you mean extinct?

#64

This analogy has layers that OP probably doesn't recognize. The film industry loves cgi because none of the digital vfx houses are unionized and they can treat the artists like crap. It severely devalued a ton of skilled labor around miniature and set design. Now, after 20 years of hard swing into cgi, people are starting to recognize just how much better movies from the practical era looked, and there is a push back…

While many of the things tou say are true, movies like PHM and other "predominantly practical" movies have so many effects that they put Marvel to shame.

I highly recommend the 4-part essay series "'No CGI' is just invisible CGI" https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgdTaHO8FLEve_XFiRBEcOSkR...

Re: Don't you mean extinct?

#65
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly right, but a lot of people have motivated reasoning about it. I can’t really blame them, the kind of shifts that AI is looking like it will bring are unprecedented, and usually when people claim big, world changing things will happen, they don’t, so most people are primed not to believe it. However as you say, we already have the evidence about this one, and it would require some unknown wall to exist…

I think for some people, it's partly that they think that, unlike physical work, work that involves thinking is somehow special, and humans are the only beings capable of it. In the 40s, the argument was that computers will never think because they are made of matter, Turing rebutted this by saying that brains are made of matter and introduced The Turing Test, which was then replied to by Searle with his famous 'Chin…

Yes, also the whole motivated reasoning part, where people are quite reasonably terrified of losing their jobs and having no income and so deny the possibility.

I think we tend to downplay the potential positives though. We may come to a point where we look back at the concept of work and see it as some kind of indentured servitude; the idea that you have to spent the majority of your waking hours serving someone else just to be able to have food and shelter is naturally repugnant.

Sure, many of us are fortunate enough to have jobs we enjoy, but everyone I’m sure has memories of jobs they hated and perhaps couldn’t leave because they needed the money. I hope we end up in a world where this is seen as a relic of a barbaric past.

Re: Don't you mean extinct?

#66
post #44

With the improvements that AI has made in just the last year, it should be obvious to anyone that code written by an AI will at some point stop being "AI slop" and be better than the majority of coders are able to put out. Reduced to its basics, all code is just characters put into a sequence. Similar to chess or Go, both of which, it was claimed at one point or another, would be impossible for a computer to beat a h…

LLMs are statistical prediction machines, they're always going to produce the most "average" code because they reproduce what they're trained on. Average code is bad, and it's going to get a lot worse as people's skills degrade and the training set degrades.

If the code isn't readable to humans, there's no particular reason to think it's going to be magically readable by LLMs either.

Re: Don't you mean extinct?

#67
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My output sometimes rivals that of entire teams' I've been part of, mostly because I get to just code to my heart's content. The fact is that often I code less than most of my peers. Because I prefer spending some time to design suitable data structures/algorithms for the problem at hand. I don't aim for perfection, just that it align with the business domain (and/or the interface) so that future works are proporti…

> I prefer spending some time to design suitable data structures/algorithms for the problem at hand. I'm doing this at LLM speed now. I feel like I'm doing the work of two whole teams and designing rock-solid software. Rust, strong types, enums, fantastic interfaces, brevity.

> Rust, strong types, enums, fantastic interfaces, brevity.

That's not what suitable data structures/algorithms mean. What you stated are mere helpers and still pertains to the realms of coding, not design.

Coding isn't and never was the issue. It is a tool and not the intent. Think about what would stand universally true whether you use Go, C, JavaScript, Assembly,... The organization of data (information), and the process of transforming it (computation).

Those do not depends on code. We already have basic ones like the list, the map, the stack, the queue, the binary tree, the graphs,... But for any business domain, you can create more specific ones. And like the basic one, they do not depends on code. The code depends on them.

So writing code faster does not make the design better.

Re: Don't you mean extinct?

#68

I mostly like this article but > Those who refuse to use an LLM will fall behind because they won't be able to produce as much Seems like a silly and needlessly aggressive take. Fall behind what? Able to produce "as much" what? I've never been evaluated on volume in my life. Nor have co workers who were severely "behind" ever feared for their jobs.

> Fall behind what? Able to produce "as much" what? Customer meaningful features that move the needle on the business. I think this is strictly true. And not because LLMs can write code faster. I think it's true even if you're still writing most of your code by hand and using the LLM as an assistant. My anecdotal but decades-long observation is that most of the time=cost of a project comes not from writing code, but…

> Weird bugs, surprising behaviors, spec ambiguities, library defects, mysterious test failures, etc. Stuff that requires intense debugging and building out a mental map of code that might not even be yours

And those issues often appears because no one had the "time" to properly design a solution before rushing to code. Saving one hour of planning by spending weeks on debugging.

Re: Don't you mean extinct?

#69

This analogy has layers that OP probably doesn't recognize. The film industry loves cgi because none of the digital vfx houses are unionized and they can treat the artists like crap. It severely devalued a ton of skilled labor around miniature and set design. Now, after 20 years of hard swing into cgi, people are starting to recognize just how much better movies from the practical era looked, and there is a push back…

> Project Hail Mary was predominantly practical effects

Don't drink the Kool Aid. The studios love to make this sort of claim — recent examples include F1: The Movie, Top Gun: Maverick, and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, and you'll see interviews where the main actors say it was all real — but it's just marketing.

Project Hail Mary leans heavily on CG. For example, while they did hire a puppeteer (he ended up voicing the alien!) to control a neat physical puppet on set, almost all of it was replaced with CG in post production, and only used for reference. Corridor Crew has a great breakdown [1]. They frequently provide a good counterpoint against fraudulent "no CG" claims.

[1] https://youtu.be/l9zqIo8KtjI?is=e7-3Wz_mnMdl2Yp8

Re: Don't you mean extinct?

#70

I mostly like this article but > Those who refuse to use an LLM will fall behind because they won't be able to produce as much Seems like a silly and needlessly aggressive take. Fall behind what? Able to produce "as much" what? I've never been evaluated on volume in my life. Nor have co workers who were severely "behind" ever feared for their jobs.

* Those who refuse to use a calculator over a slide-rule will fall behind because they won't be able to produce as much

* Those who refuse to use a spreadsheet over calculator and paper will fall behind because they won't be able to produce as much

* Those who refuse to use a truck over horse drawn wagon will fall behind because they won't be able to carry as much

Seems pretty common sense to me, rathern than aggressive.

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