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Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

pluralistic.net

11–20 of 77 posts

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#11
post #7

> This is a political act of resistance. Margaret Thatcher's motto, after all, was "There is no alternative," by which she meant, "Stop trying to think of alternatives." The bully's trick is to present your defeat as a fait accompli: "Resistance is futile." More broadly, that trick is the most effective and important today: No matter the issue, people - including on HN - will tell you how powerless they are and how p…

I don't find empty platitudes like "you can just do things" all that inspiring. I prefer seeing a specific example of something you could do and an explanation about why it might help.

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#15
post #8

AI for his own pundit profession is not allowed but "open source hackers do amazing things with AI"? He evidently has no clue about open source (people just plagiarize with AI and don't do amazing things). If he wants to build resistance as stated in the last paragraphs maybe he should be a bit more careful.

Plenty of people are doing novel hard work with AI in open source: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48867961

So novel the person you link to says he's mimicking an existing CAD software

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#17
CTF + F "bubble" - 15 results. This guy was manically predicting the bubble in 2025

> AI is a bubble.

> AI is a bubble. Bubbles burst. We're in for a near-total collapse of the AI investment mania

> AI is a bubble, and when bubbles burst, they sometimes leave behind a productive residue

> When the AI bubble bursts, there will be stellar bargains on GPUs

> The bad news is all the damage the bubble is doing now and all the further damage that will come from its collapse.

> After the bubble bursts, there will be the mass incineration of everyday people's retirement savings and the knock-on effects as the whole market craters

> Every day the bubble persists, the harms of today and tomorrow increase. We need to burst that bubble as soon as possible.

Holy. Shit. This guy is insane. He's been pulling the same schtick since 2014 calling many other companies a bubble. Why why is this guy taken seriously.

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#18

I'm not sure his argument holds that foundational models will no longer function after the bubble pops. There's plenty of open weight models that are competitive which are more likely to exist in a world with abundant cheap GPUs.

That is what he said.

>When the AI bubble bursts, there will be stellar bargains on GPUs…

>these standalone models can do amazing things

>The things these open source standalone models can do will only expand, and they will become a given for our computing applications.

I think of the “big” foundation models as the “fossil fuel” of AI. Once the bubble pops and we can’t afford to train any more of them, we’ll be distilling and remixing the ones we managed to make during this weird period where they were feasible.

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#19

CTF + F "bubble" - 15 results. This guy was manically predicting the bubble in 2025 > AI is a bubble. > AI is a bubble. Bubbles burst. We're in for a near-total collapse of the AI investment mania > AI is a bubble, and when bubbles burst, they sometimes leave behind a productive residue > When the AI bubble bursts, there will be stellar bargains on GPUs > The bad news is all the damage the bubble is doing now and all…

People say this about everyone who calls something a bubble, right up until it pops.

Re: Reverse centaurs are the answer to the AI paradox (2025)

#20

CTF + F "bubble" - 15 results. This guy was manically predicting the bubble in 2025 > AI is a bubble. > AI is a bubble. Bubbles burst. We're in for a near-total collapse of the AI investment mania > AI is a bubble, and when bubbles burst, they sometimes leave behind a productive residue > When the AI bubble bursts, there will be stellar bargains on GPUs > The bad news is all the damage the bubble is doing now and all…

I don’t agree with Doctorow on this point, but there’s nothing inherently unreasonable about predicting an economic phenomenon is a bubble and having to wait several years to be proven correct. Michael Burry first purchased credit default swaps on mortgage backed securities in May of 2005.
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