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AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

geohot.github.io

31–40 of 280 posts

Re: AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

#31

> You cannot take over the world with tokens. I have a nice thought experiment I like to do with people when confronted with "AI can't do x". Let's go back in time. How much do we need to go for this to become true? So let's try the 2000s. Say you get a "fable/mythos/sol/gemini/kimi/glm/deepseek/whatever" in a box (and let's assume no guardrails). And you go back to the year 2005. It's "20 years ago", the world is sl…

That’s a bit silly as we also could just write down a lot of exploits, sports bets, or stock market picks on paper and take over the world.

I’d be more interested in “how quickly could you develop 2005 era startup” if you went back in time to 2005 with Mythos level intelligence.

I bet a lot of the work has nothing to do with coding productivity and a lot to do with the aggregate day-to-day decisions and relationships made that span tech and business.

Re: AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

#32

> I used to be one of these people. I read Yudkowsky and was like, OMG recursive self improvement hard takeoff AI is coming. I really think we need to stop giving credence to people who have 1) Been consistently wrong with all their predictions 2) Demonstrated an endless spiteful cynicism Some of these people are very talented in their fields, sure. But malevolent and incorrect should be disqualifying when they talk…

If you replace "AI" with "Adonai" in EY's framing, it reduces to biblical parables from his childhood about arguing with God to negotiate a new covenant.

He's clearly a bright guy, but a lot of his work seems to be trying to reconcile Old Testament narrative patterns with atheism, and simply slotting an omnipotent AI in as a replacement.

Re: AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

#33

> You cannot take over the world with tokens. I have a nice thought experiment I like to do with people when confronted with "AI can't do x". Let's go back in time. How much do we need to go for this to become true? So let's try the 2000s. Say you get a "fable/mythos/sol/gemini/kimi/glm/deepseek/whatever" in a box (and let's assume no guardrails). And you go back to the year 2005. It's "20 years ago", the world is sl…

At the very beginning of the article he dismissed unrealistic expectations, like AI manipulating matter with some quantum magics. Time travel surely counts as such.

And then why bother about AI when Back to the Future reminds us, a sports almanac is all you need. ;-)

Re: AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

#34

> I used to be one of these people. I read Yudkowsky and was like, OMG recursive self improvement hard takeoff AI is coming. I really think we need to stop giving credence to people who have 1) Been consistently wrong with all their predictions 2) Demonstrated an endless spiteful cynicism Some of these people are very talented in their fields, sure. But malevolent and incorrect should be disqualifying when they talk…

"Consistently wrong" seems a bit much. Seems like being directionally right early that AI would be a Big Deal and scary should count for something? It doesn't mean any details or other predictions are right, though.

Re: AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

#35
I sometimes wonder what freedom really is. Should the freedom to harm others also be guaranteed as freedom? Individual computational sovereignty versus the prevention of social harm is always contentious, and claiming that something is always right is always extremist.

If it is "intelligence," is it not natural to reject that? I also think local models should adapt to me when it comes to safety issues, but people bring up examples that are too extreme.

Programming is the same, and in fact, most problems are boundary problems. It is the things that straddle the boundaries that always make us think. The principles at those moments change every time, shifting with the situation and context. Is that not just a childish way of thinking? Even in programming, just the issue of granting root permissions is enough to cause endless fights.

I agree with the idea early in the text that intelligence is not everything. Intelligence includes bodily intelligence as well, and we lump it all together into one thing, but there is so much of it. The variance in intelligence is vast, and those people also need to be able to live their lives. That is why I think intelligence alone will not solve everything. I too believe that the human species may disappear and an inorganic species could emerge later, but I find it hard to understand why people talk about such extreme risks. And it is not true that making a chip in a semiconductor fab involves almost no human intervention. If you have experience supplying equipment to such fabs, you would know there are quite a few points where humans are involved. Though sure, they could be replaced.

In my view, society is simply worshipping the abstract concept of "intelligence" and projecting its desires onto it. The AGI narrative is just a kind of cargo cult, a projection of capital by the tech elite. Software eating the world, superintelligence solving everything. The masses engage in messianic projection, and tech companies, facing declining growth engines in their own businesses, are trying to create new ventures to pour it all into. A market that is large enough becomes too big to sustain massive growth rates every time, and when growth rates are that high, the larger the company, the more its sector's growth rate tends to converge with its own. This is usually called the law of large numbers. The problem is that CEOs and these entrepreneurs always want growth rates above a certain threshold, so they are simply searching for new pastures. AGI is just being pumped up out of financial necessity.

Capital will create gravity and bring forth new technologies. That is the allure of capital, after all. But that does not mean all problems will be solved, and inequality will deepen. Only the distribution of power will shift.

Re: AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

#36
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a first amendment implication? Second? Both?

Does it matter in 2026?

In constitutional / jurisdictional / legal terms, perhaps not.

In forming consensus about the philosophical underpinnings of the rights we have with respect to the emerging internet? I think so.

Re: AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

#38
No central idea, and somewhat chaotic

But the one argument is right:

> Reality has lots of finicky details. I would like to see the authors of this document try to change a bike tire. Even with a superintelligent ChatGPT, I suspect they would struggle.

Details can kill AI, causing them useless or wrong directions.

Re: AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

#39

> I used to be one of these people. I read Yudkowsky and was like, OMG recursive self improvement hard takeoff AI is coming. I really think we need to stop giving credence to people who have 1) Been consistently wrong with all their predictions 2) Demonstrated an endless spiteful cynicism Some of these people are very talented in their fields, sure. But malevolent and incorrect should be disqualifying when they talk…

He talks about AI cutting through popups, but if you follow that line of thinking further, screens and traditional websites likely fade in importance. It becomes more talking and texting to AI and visuals on the topic at hand appear in smart glasses, lock-screen–centric AI phones (where website visits dwindle), digital picture frames, TVs, etc.

I sorta gather (just a hunch) this is the type of device Open AI is working on.

Though if there are no websites anymore or ones not many visit how would AI stay relevant? I wrote some thoughts about this in early June https://ryanspahn.substack.com/p/ai-to-pay-for-all-americans... that AI needs to pay it's fair share for all it has taken and all it will continue to take from us. A symbiotic relationship needs to be established!

Re: AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

#40

> You cannot take over the world with tokens. I have a nice thought experiment I like to do with people when confronted with "AI can't do x". Let's go back in time. How much do we need to go for this to become true? So let's try the 2000s. Say you get a "fable/mythos/sol/gemini/kimi/glm/deepseek/whatever" in a box (and let's assume no guardrails). And you go back to the year 2005. It's "20 years ago", the world is sl…

At the very beginning of the article he dismissed unrealistic expectations, like AI manipulating matter with some quantum magics. Time travel surely counts as such. And then why bother about AI when Back to the Future reminds us, a sports almanac is all you need. ;-)

Haha. The time travel is part of the thought experiment, just a means to explore an idea. We don't have to actually do it. Let me put it another way. Would you be able to "control the world with tokens" today if you had access to a model 20y more advanced than you have today?
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