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AI 2040: Plan A

ai-2040.com

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Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#231

Post by reasonableklout »

aarondong wrote: post #213
aarondong wrote: post #212

I would not like to be dismissive, but to me this article feels like an exercise in creative writing rather than a report to be taken seriously. The entire experience feels like a choose your own adventure game, seems like their stylistic intent. I am not sure if alternative reality fiction is the best way to approach real and serious AI risks. I am also not sure, with the amount of emdashes and the style of prose, t…

To me, this feels like a last ditch effort to revive the AGI narrative to reject the coming and current commoditisation of these models, contrary to all current evidence. https://artificialanalysis.ai/

How is commoditisation of models incompatible with AGI?

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#232

Post by skybrian »

somebodythere wrote: post #163
kypro wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I took you back to 2020 and said in a little over 5 years there will basically be no human coders writing code anymore you'd almost certainly not believe me. And similar things can be said about many technologies in recent history – cars replacing the horse, first flight to man on the moon, even the creation of early internet to its mass adoption. You're talking generally a decade or 2 for society to completely ch…

The thing about exponentials is if you admit 60%, it's pretty easy to admit 95%.

Depends on what kind of curve it is. 60% reliable is useless in most safety-related fields and getting to near-perfect reliability is tough.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#233

Post by aarondong »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #230
aarondong wrote: post #212

I would not like to be dismissive, but to me this article feels like an exercise in creative writing rather than a report to be taken seriously. The entire experience feels like a choose your own adventure game, seems like their stylistic intent. I am not sure if alternative reality fiction is the best way to approach real and serious AI risks. I am also not sure, with the amount of emdashes and the style of prose, t…

> Because AI represents the distillation of the very best human knowledge and expertise. You say it like it's a fact, but in reality everyone sees the phenomenon of AI slop. P.S. Information search and retrieval if the best and most direct way to use LLMs.

An even more cynical take than me!

I agree with your last statement.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#234

Post by aarondong »

reasonableklout wrote: post #231
aarondong wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me, this feels like a last ditch effort to revive the AGI narrative to reject the coming and current commoditisation of these models, contrary to all current evidence. https://artificialanalysis.ai/

How is commoditisation of models incompatible with AGI?

The "AGI narrative" is distinct from the existence of AGI.

Most of the discussion around AGI is highly speculative. I am not saying AGI could not exist, and it is a term that has historically been loosely defined. Decades of coming science and research will tell.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#235

Post by kordlessagain »

There's a good story about this, in Star Wars. The clones vs. the droids, basically. Droids being somewhat sovereign, not one large intelligence like the clones.

The only choice here is to go to sea and get away from the crowds and the bots. Bots don't like salt water much, so I'll see you out there.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#236

Post by CaptWorld »

tehjoker wrote: post #58
rayiner wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a possibility, but not the only one. The two most realistic ones are: we race ahead and maintain our status, or we slow down and open ourselves up to colonization.

Worth noting that it is the Europeans and Americans that have been colonial. Asian peoples have, with the prominent exception of the Mongols and Japanese Empire, pretty much not done that. In particular, China shut down its exploration program. This is a settler-colonial mindset that reflects all the bad things we did onto everyone else. Notably, it's a current US ally that is most guilty of this.

This comment is a parody right?

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#237

Post by CaptWorld »

jbxntuehineoh wrote: post #172
mikestorrent wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this one. Look at our governance; look at our coordination-at-scale; look at our collective problem solving. It's abysmal, beyond hope. If we have global scale problems, we are not capable of solving them effectively. We are literally not intelligent enough to handle the problems we are creating. Between rivers of garbage and CO2 levels and war, we have proven ourselves to be woefully unintelligent at the scale…

lol, how the fuck is ASI going to solve any of those problems? we already know _how_ to solve them; the problem is that we don't want to, collectively speaking, because certain powerful, wealthy people would loose out if we did. ASI wouldn't change anything. unless you think... all of human society is going to restructure itself around unquestioning worship of the Machine God and would therefore present no resistance…

What is the solution?

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#238

Post by dyauspitr »

joshstrange wrote: post #6

I'm sure some people will have issue with my phrasing but, honest question: Are there examples of where we have collective decided not to pursue knowledge? Successfully? I guess nuclear weapons might be the best example though research doesn't seem have to actually "stopped" as much as gone underground and we still have country trying to climb that ladder. But I don't know how relevant that is to LLMs/AI. It almost f…

> Are there examples of where we have collective decided not to pursue knowledge? Successfully?

Isn’t that like all of the Middle Ages where we replaced knowledge with an alternate religious reality.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#239

Post by Animats »

walrus01 wrote: post #171
jbxntuehineoh wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

please bro just one more decade bro i promise AGI is right around the corner no the hockeystick graph isn't made up bullshit we just need to wait a few more years bro please please bro

big number goes up and becomes larger number, chart goes up and to the right, this must be a solid measure of progress in society.

A hockey stick graph on a log scale is a bit much.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#240

Post by ane »

reasonableklout wrote: post #231
aarondong wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me, this feels like a last ditch effort to revive the AGI narrative to reject the coming and current commoditisation of these models, contrary to all current evidence. https://artificialanalysis.ai/

How is commoditisation of models incompatible with AGI?

If we can solve 99% of the world's problems with current non-AGI models then nobody besides a select few will care about AGI
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