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AI 2040: Plan A

ai-2040.com

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Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#221

Post by Aurornis »

scotty79 wrote: post #104
Animats wrote: post #81

This is from the "AI 2027"[1] people. [1] https://ai-2027.com/

This seems way more accurate. Up until early 2026. Though it has bizzare fixation on geopolitics and China which it severely understimated. It's pretty obvious that China is going to outinnovate and outcompute US companies quite soon. Even if just because they care about higher education, providing enough electricity and letting smart people do smart things instead of randomly muzzling them with bans and export contr…

> This seems way more accurate. Up until early 2026.

Which is funny, because they launched the AI 2027 site in 2025 and it caused a lot of people to believe the end was near.

They claimed to have built a complicated model, but several people showed that it didn't matter how much you changed the inputs, it was designed to converge on the answer they wanted.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#222

Post by vivzkestrel »

- whenever i read this, why does it always read like some first world country guy born in a bathtub who has never been outside his bubble, never seen what the rest of the 90% world looks and works like actually sat and wrote a work of fiction

- have you seen the actual problems in other countries outside america?

- have you been to any country outside USA and the countries in europe?

- have you taken a trip to any developing country and stayed there for a month?

- have you seen what sort of daily struggles, political systems, bureaucracy and work exists in developing countries?

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#223

Post by Aurornis »

swatcoder wrote: post #83
WarmWash wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 22 golf courses within a 30 minute drive from me, and people here a losing their minds over datacenter water usage...

People have a dozen reasons to refuse data centers being built in their communities and zero reasons to encourage it. They're little more than post-industrial mines that take limited resources (power, land, water, quiet) from a community, sell them for profit as compute, and siphon those profits away onto the books of far-flung megacorps with no community reward. Meanwhile, golf courses are a traditional green space…

> People have a dozen reasons to refuse data centers being built in their communities and zero reasons to encourage it.

This is, ironically, the NIMBYism that so many people hate.

People generally don't want anything built in their surroundings unless it directly benefits them and has no downsides, however low the impact.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#224

Post by aarondong »

joshstrange wrote: post #6

I'm sure some people will have issue with my phrasing but, honest question: Are there examples of where we have collective decided not to pursue knowledge? Successfully? I guess nuclear weapons might be the best example though research doesn't seem have to actually "stopped" as much as gone underground and we still have country trying to climb that ladder. But I don't know how relevant that is to LLMs/AI. It almost f…

I like your optimism and I think you will be vindicated. AI is democratic and AI talent is globally distributed. It will just take a while to get online. AI labs do not have a monopoly on human talent, and open source AI only empowers independent science and meritocracy.

On a funny note, I think their prompt was:

"Hey Fable. Please attribute every piece of scientific and economic progress to AI until 2040. And predict every major geopolitical event. Make no mistakes."

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#225

Post by dash2 »

vivzkestrel wrote: post #222

- whenever i read this, why does it always read like some first world country guy born in a bathtub who has never been outside his bubble, never seen what the rest of the 90% world looks and works like actually sat and wrote a work of fiction - have you seen the actual problems in other countries outside america? - have you been to any country outside USA and the countries in europe? - have you taken a trip to any de…

I think you need to explain why the problems of developing countries are related to the issues of the article.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#226

Post by dash2 »

HaloZero wrote: post #200
joshstrange wrote: post #6

I'm sure some people will have issue with my phrasing but, honest question: Are there examples of where we have collective decided not to pursue knowledge? Successfully? I guess nuclear weapons might be the best example though research doesn't seem have to actually "stopped" as much as gone underground and we still have country trying to climb that ladder. But I don't know how relevant that is to LLMs/AI. It almost f…

Human embryo genetic modification has been effectively taboo if not banned until just recently since WWII and the aftermath of the Holocaust. I think some people in the US are proposing doing it now but I don't think anyone has tried it yet without repercussions.

Actually: https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/11/19/...

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#227

Post by yosame »

ekelsen wrote: post #107
swatcoder wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have a dozen reasons to refuse data centers being built in their communities and zero reasons to encourage it. They're little more than post-industrial mines that take limited resources (power, land, water, quiet) from a community, sell them for profit as compute, and siphon those profits away onto the books of far-flung megacorps with no community reward. Meanwhile, golf courses are a traditional green space…

How is this different from farming? It takes the limited resources of land and water from a community and sells the result for profit as food or fuel. The vast majority of profit is made downstream and outside the community. Golf courses being a traditional green place where people gather seems a bit far fetched to me when most of them are elite private clubs.

People are more lenient on farming because humans need agriculture to survive. Obviously not all agriculture is necessary for survival, but it's something that in some way provides real tangible benefits for everyone.

On the other hand, if AI data centres all disappeared today, humanity would continue on completely fine.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#228

Post by Griffinsauce »

rayiner wrote: post #39
reducesuffering wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we’d be allowing a gap to open up that would make the difference between colonial europe and colonized Asia/Africa look trivial. An easy choice to make if the alternative is everyone dying instead.

The alternative isn’t “everyone dying.” It’s us holding all the cards.

Define "us"

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#229

Post by skybrian »

kypro wrote: post #140
a_vanderbilt wrote: post #24

I found the AI 2027 paper to be overly optimistic, but not wholly fantastical. This paper feels wildly speculative, and relies on premises I am not confident even pass surface reasoning. Even under optimistic conditions, we are not going to see robots "capable of 95% of all cognitive and physical tasks" by 2035. Nor do I think a 74% unemployment rate is even remotely possible. Economic collapse would implode AI devel…

If I took you back to 2020 and said in a little over 5 years there will basically be no human coders writing code anymore you'd almost certainly not believe me. And similar things can be said about many technologies in recent history – cars replacing the horse, first flight to man on the moon, even the creation of early internet to its mass adoption. You're talking generally a decade or 2 for society to completely ch…

You say "just" 15 years, but Waymo is still only available in a few cities. That seems more like a slow, cautious rollout to me, not a fast takeoff. Society has had a lot of time to get used to (and tired of) the idea and come up with regulations.

My guess is that the deployment of other types of robots will often be a similarly slow grind.

That's unlike the Internet, smart phones, and coding agents, which got user adoption at a much quicker pace.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#230

Post by otabdeveloper4 »

aarondong wrote: post #212

I would not like to be dismissive, but to me this article feels like an exercise in creative writing rather than a report to be taken seriously. The entire experience feels like a choose your own adventure game, seems like their stylistic intent. I am not sure if alternative reality fiction is the best way to approach real and serious AI risks. I am also not sure, with the amount of emdashes and the style of prose, t…

> Because AI represents the distillation of the very best human knowledge and expertise.

You say it like it's a fact, but in reality everyone sees the phenomenon of AI slop.

P.S. Information search and retrieval if the best and most direct way to use LLMs.

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