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AI 2040: Plan A

ai-2040.com

191–200 of 567 posts

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#191

This criticism, like most criticisms of AI, addresses the wrong part of the problem. The problem is harm to other parties. Typically customers and employees of corporations. A solution is strict legal liability. Corporations must be strictly liable for harms. That liability should be higher when AI is involved. Such liability may not be waived by contract, forced into arbitration, or devolved upon a third party servi…

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Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#192
post #150

I note that they use the Sam Altman quote. "AI will most likely lead to the end of the world, but in the meantime there will be great companies.” Is there any serious journalistic source suggesting that this was anything other than an offhand joke? This article links to a youtube clip of the comment with context removed, but hair raising comments. Taking the most uncharitable view of any person, you could imagine som…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6lDZpvHAoo&t=527s

The question (7:35) is "Where would you like to see people investing more time?" And Sam seems to be saying AI safety, I guess? This is 2015, and he refers to founding OpenAI. Based on his actions since then, yeah, seems like it's not a joke to him. This is Altman we're talking about.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#193
“Engagement with China is impossible because it is a Stalinist one party state under a fiercely ideological Marxist Leninist dictatorship that preaches Chinese racial supremacy over other nations. It will always pose a threat to world peace until the regime eventually falls.” - Drew Pavlou

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#194

This criticism, like most criticisms of AI, addresses the wrong part of the problem. The problem is harm to other parties. Typically customers and employees of corporations. A solution is strict legal liability. Corporations must be strictly liable for harms. That liability should be higher when AI is involved. Such liability may not be waived by contract, forced into arbitration, or devolved upon a third party servi…

No, nobody can be held liable for the extinction of humanity, for there is nobody left to pay up. If your objection is that you think AIs won't cause human extinction, you should say that instead, as that would be where you disagree with the authors.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#195

Why are they obsessed with China?! Actually most of the US are. I guess if you’ve been a colonizer, your biggest fear is to be colonized.

Perhaps it’s because they are #2 strongest entity? Or maybe they are number 1, no one can say for sure.

Your comment also implies that those who haven’t participated in colonization might not fear being colonized. Seems… off.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember being blown away by o1-o3 family of models finally stringing together coherent agentic tool calls to write and execute scripts semi-reliably for workloads in the several minutes before they would start hallucinating/flailing. GPT 5 was a bit ahead of that, but barely Now we take for granted that the latest models can juggle between multiple browser tabs, applications, databases, simulators, docker etc to w…

without taking down prod even 1% of the time Literally every major company that has embraced AI coding has suffered devastating downtime this year as a direct result of AI induced failures.

Wasn't writing about major companies. That's obviously next, if we follow the trend lines.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#197

I found the AI 2027 paper to be overly optimistic, but not wholly fantastical. This paper feels wildly speculative, and relies on premises I am not confident even pass surface reasoning. Even under optimistic conditions, we are not going to see robots "capable of 95% of all cognitive and physical tasks" by 2035. Nor do I think a 74% unemployment rate is even remotely possible. Economic collapse would implode AI devel…

The "and physical" is the part I'm particularly skeptical of. Sure, drones are scary, but nobody's really solved getting a robot to deliver a package to your front porch in a civilian setting, and it seems unlikely to be solved quickly.

Nobody’s even solved a self-driving vehicles yet, not in in the sort of “they took over everything and put every uber and truck driver out of business” kind of way.

Maybe they will soon but it’s massively far behind the kind of timeframe AI 2027 would have implied.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#200

I'm sure some people will have issue with my phrasing but, honest question: Are there examples of where we have collective decided not to pursue knowledge? Successfully? I guess nuclear weapons might be the best example though research doesn't seem have to actually "stopped" as much as gone underground and we still have country trying to climb that ladder. But I don't know how relevant that is to LLMs/AI. It almost f…

Human embryo genetic modification has been effectively taboo if not banned until just recently since WWII and the aftermath of the Holocaust. I think some people in the US are proposing doing it now but I don't think anyone has tried it yet without repercussions.
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