I feel like we will end up with a future that equally disappoints everyone and is somehow not covered in any plan here.
AI 2040: Plan A
151–160 of 567 posts
Re: AI 2040: Plan A
#152Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you’ve done any software development at all, certainly.
Is that true or does it only feel true because they nerf the old models just before every major release?
5.6 to 5.0 is a big enough of a jump to say yes. if it was 5.4 to 5.6 it would be a bit easier to say it only feels true because of that, but 5.6 is definitely better than 5.0. I don't have anything empirical to point at though, which is your point, but August 2025 for 5.0 vs July 2026 is almost a year later, and it's not just vibes that it's better, despite not having an objective metric to point at. It would be more scientifical to have numbers and shit to point at and there are some benchmarks out there, but you have to dig into them and really understand them in order to believe in exactly what they're testing, and I'm betting you haven't.
Re: AI 2040: Plan A
#153Earlier quoted context omitted.
While technology has empowered governments, it’s also empowered the individual, and more importantly shifted the material dynamics to better align the incentives of governments with the people. Democracy followed material change, it didn’t precede it. Democracy came about because it was optimal for a power seeking government, not out of the kindness of their heart. A resource extraction based economy sees people as s…
This is a just so story. The main issue today is the lack of democracy in the country and the use of technology to surveil and govern a restive population as the government has less and less legitimacy. The narrative you are telling is the heroic tale of computing and the internet c. 1990-2010. Yasha Levine wrote about how this narrative was preceded by a forgotten one where MIT students protested because the compute…
I don't think parent commenter means tech in the modern sense. Seems like they're describing a transition to democracy which started centuries ago, not decades.
Re: AI 2040: Plan A
#154NYT reported today that Russia and China are funding anti-datacenter and anti-ai hysteria on western social media. Always easier to boost something already existing on social media than manufacture it themselves, then wildly blow it out of proportion to make it seem urgent and important.
Which then gives more ammunition to folks like Kevin O'Leary et al to pretend any objections to data centers or AI are Chinese plots, or "hysteria" as you put it.
While I can admit some of the anti-data center arguments are overblown, many are more than valid in my opinion. Data centers are fundamentally extractive technologies. They are enormous, windowless boxes that take resources from one location to make someone else in a far off location enormously rich and powerful, with extremely few benefits to the local community.
Plus, as another commenter mentioned, it's not exactly like the Chinese and Russians have been fanning the flames that AI is going to take all of our jobs - it's the leaders of the frontier AI companies in the US saying that. Remind me again why I think putting up a giant data center in my state, that was proposed to use more electricity than my state already currently uses, is a good thing for the average joe where I live??
Honestly, I feel like many commenters here are in their own bubble and don't understand how much AI and tech generally is widely viewed as a net negative for society by huge swaths of the the population, and I don't really think it's an unwarranted perception.
Re: AI 2040: Plan A
#155I note that they use the Sam Altman quote. "AI will most likely lead to the end of the world, but in the meantime there will be great companies.” Is there any serious journalistic source suggesting that this was anything other than an offhand joke? This article links to a youtube clip of the comment with context removed, but hair raising comments. Taking the most uncharitable view of any person, you could imagine som…
I think he means the end of the world as we know it. Which is probably true, but the timeline could be 20 years, 2000 years, or more.
Re: AI 2040: Plan A
#156Firstly, let me say that "AI 2040: Plan A" is a nicely done presentation. If feels like reading an interactive graphic novel with a narrator to boot. Can't wait for the book, series or movie :)
Plan A seems like a good start and am glad an effort is actually being made to address any potential dangers. The only weak link I see is that there is no way for inaccessible, third-world countries, non-aligned states, and malicious wealthy rogue agents to be regulated. All I hear is a way for regulating companies that, themselves, legally have to answer or are bound to their host nations. Basically, I don't see a way to hold non-aligned states accountable.
I see a lot of focus on the well-being and protection of AI, which is important to country economies but, the folks that have been affected by layoffs, not necessarily due to AI, plus the workforce that are now feeling the negative consequences of the AI burn are justified in being worried. Anyone that feels the need to criticize them, clearly is not being affected by AI in the same way. Job loss will lead to economic and population destabilization, far worse than anything that has transpired in modern times. Hopefully, those being squeezed now won't be ignored.
Re: AI 2040: Plan A
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nobody wants their electric rates to go up, the local water utility to have to raise rates to build a bigger plant, all in exchange for also losing good white collar jobs. That’s currently what AI data centre builders are selling.
Not exactly. There are some data centers being built in places that don't have the power and water to support them, and obviously it's rational for the locals to oppose them. But I live in a place where we have plenty of water and relatively cheap power (lots of renewables). There's not much risk to data center construction, but people are opposing it here, too. Because for most people, it's not actually about that.
An obvious question is if the cheap power is going to stay cheap after a large power-user comes in who has a proven track record of trying to make everything cheap for themselves with no regard for anyone else.
Or another question to ask is - how does this data centre benefit the people who live there? If it doesn't, there's no reason they should want one to be built. Rubbish tips are necessary. I still don't want one built next to my house and would fight such a thing tooth and nail.
Re: AI 2040: Plan A
#158I'm sure some people will have issue with my phrasing but, honest question: Are there examples of where we have collective decided not to pursue knowledge? Successfully? I guess nuclear weapons might be the best example though research doesn't seem have to actually "stopped" as much as gone underground and we still have country trying to climb that ladder. But I don't know how relevant that is to LLMs/AI. It almost f…
we should never make ASI, what I am saying is strongly sane. ASI = not good. AGI, ~human brainpower, can be made safe enough. > Are there examples of where we have collective decided not to pursue knowledge? Successfully? human GMO, some bioweopns, I'm sure theres a long list of awful stuff no one wants to exist.
If AGI means that AI+robotics can robustly substitute for human labor, and robots are cheaper and faster to build than humans, then (a) anyone ruthless enough can zerg rush and defeat any nations that don't discard humans, (b) no one without a massive robot army will be needed in any way by their rulers. If this isn't a recipe for a horrific outcome, what is?
Re: AI 2040: Plan A
#159Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most golf courses around me are open and anyone can go play for a cheap greens fee. The clubhouse has normal low end restaurant prices for a hot dog or a burger.
If the clubhouse is your idea of the valuable public good we can provide without 18 holes of grass.
As far as "valuable", the golf course is private property that the owners presumably bought and can do with as they see fit. If you want to develop it into something else, make an offer to them?
The golf courses are a business like any other (although we do have some publicly-owned golf courses around here too). The cost to play 9 holes on a weekday is $10 at one of them. I'm not really sure what you're asking for here.
Re: AI 2040: Plan A
#160Earlier quoted context omitted.
People can care about more than one thing Personally I would happily close down all golf courses and put them to better use as literally anything else. Even just making them public parks would be great
I attended an auction of a golf course a few years ago. It went for a few thousand an acre. You could have shown up and bid on it. The winner ended up just choosing to keep the current employees and keep operating it. Nobody, I mean nobody, wanted the land for development. It was in an era with basically no zoning either.
No, in fact, most of us could not have just shown up and bid on it with any expectation of a meaningful outcome.