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The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

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Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#471

Post by pj_mukh »

silvestrov wrote: post #15
kayo_20211030 wrote: post #2

A very insightful, and correct, piece. I'll quote in full the following, which I think gets to the heart of the matter. If you have no push, you can't apply pressure to the point. > The notion that amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logistics is frequently discussed in military academies and war colleges, yet it is rarely reflected in the Army’s budget requests or modernization priorities. The outdated conc…

One of the most interesting innovations in the Ukraine war is their internal market place for drones, letting each drone group decide which drones they want to procure and use in battle. It is not a top-down decision, production and supply as other armies use for their weapons logistics.

Woah cool! Any write up’s on this?

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#472

Post by 63stack »

usiran1286628 wrote: post #442
27183 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Initially it's unclear what the goal was. But now the goal must be opening the strait of Hormuz ASAP. There's going to be serious economic fallout if that doesn't happen[0]. It remains to be seen how realistic that goal actually is. Iran has big advantages in their favor. [0] https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/08/business/iran-oil-trump-strai...

Trump has clearly stated many times the goal is to prevent Iran from obtaining nukes. Many times. Repeatedly, again and again, and all negotiations are directed towards that first and foremost.

Trump clearly stating anything is a stretch, that man cannot talk coherently even for a minute.

He has also stated that the war has been won many times. Why would you take anything coming out of his mouth seriously?

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#473

Post by ExoticPearTree »

silvestrov wrote: post #15
kayo_20211030 wrote: post #2

A very insightful, and correct, piece. I'll quote in full the following, which I think gets to the heart of the matter. If you have no push, you can't apply pressure to the point. > The notion that amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logistics is frequently discussed in military academies and war colleges, yet it is rarely reflected in the Army’s budget requests or modernization priorities. The outdated conc…

One of the most interesting innovations in the Ukraine war is their internal market place for drones, letting each drone group decide which drones they want to procure and use in battle. It is not a top-down decision, production and supply as other armies use for their weapons logistics.

As a "sitting on my couch" war expert, I think future combat should be country level semi-organized guerrilla combat style. When every structure, forest etc. tries to kill you, it might changed the adversary's opinion on how much they want your land.

On the other hand, if they just want to kill you for the sake of killing you, that's another story and the enemy will probably resort to "carpet bombing".

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#474

Post by brabel »

esseph wrote: post #348
brabel wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the most optimistic Russian does not think Russia will ever get beyond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya which is not much more than Russia currently occupies. You really think they will eventually march over Ukraine on to Warsaw?? That’s as likely as the exiled Chinese government in Taiwan taking over China.

There have been rumblings of a Russian attack on Poland for awhile. https://youtu.be/NVnbtbtgu2Y?is=2lMFmF2kQ0SXqIw0 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-pla... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provoca... Polish news: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043294/ --- The head of Poland's Foreign Ministry noted that he cannot comment on intelligence data but stressed th…

Poland is delivering 90% of NATO’s support to Ukraine. France is one of the staunchest enemies of Russia. In this situation I just don’t understand what people expect Russia to do?? Sit and accept while those countries work hard to kill its soldiers and destroy its economy? I am surprised Russia hasn’t bombed transport depots in Poland that are known to be used for weapons delivery to Ukraine yet, but that seems very likely to happen in the next few months. However that is not the same as Russia invading Poland! Those reports are talking about attacks, no one in their right mind is expecting an invasion, which is what my comment was referring to.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#475

Post by helsinkiandrew »

silvestrov wrote: post #15
kayo_20211030 wrote: post #2

A very insightful, and correct, piece. I'll quote in full the following, which I think gets to the heart of the matter. If you have no push, you can't apply pressure to the point. > The notion that amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logistics is frequently discussed in military academies and war colleges, yet it is rarely reflected in the Army’s budget requests or modernization priorities. The outdated conc…

One of the most interesting innovations in the Ukraine war is their internal market place for drones, letting each drone group decide which drones they want to procure and use in battle. It is not a top-down decision, production and supply as other armies use for their weapons logistics.

Units can also collect e-points to purchase more equipment:

> The allocation changes regularly, but as of June 2025, Business Insider reported that destroying a tank was worth eight points. A multiple launch rocket system counted for 10. Killing a regular Russian soldier earned 12 points. Wounding a drone pilot was valued at 15 and eliminating him netted 25. In the final step, the payoff, units use the points they’ve earned to purchase equipment—drones, drone jamming devices, ammunition, and other goods—on Brave1 Market, an online shopping platform not unlike Amazon.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tamarjacoby/2025/09/19/kyivs-e-...

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#476

Post by ExoticPearTree »

Animats wrote: post #146
lopsotronic wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You also have to ponder how it looks when you remove the Chinese supply chain for all those commodity parts. Which will almost certainly be the case if we decide to punch that dance card. Having a boundless cornucopia of servos and radios will affect the shape of your logistics/maintenance/fabrication complex. That's not just a "Ukraine Problem" either.

Ukraine and Taiwan quietly cooperate in weapons development and production, especially drones.[1] They both have big, aggressive neighbors. Ukraine knows how to fight them, and Taiwan can make electronics in quantity. Ukraine is starting to get cooperation from Japan, too, but that's in an earlier stage.[2] With Taiwan, it's serious. The paper doesn't mention Ukraine at all, yet it's all about the kind of war that Uk…

In Taiwan's case, the question is how does China see the reunification.

It could be a naval blockade until Taiwan runs out of food/fuel/medicines and they surrender. Or it could be "we will take the island no matter what" and if somebody survives OK, if not, also OK.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#477

Post by brabel »

XorNot wrote: post #302
brabel wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the most optimistic Russian does not think Russia will ever get beyond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya which is not much more than Russia currently occupies. You really think they will eventually march over Ukraine on to Warsaw?? That’s as likely as the exiled Chinese government in Taiwan taking over China.

Ukraine is keeping Russia where it is at a tremendous expenditure of people and treasure. Their success in the conflict is not guaranteed.

Their success is already impossible: you cannot lose half of your population and suffer millions of casualties and still consider that a success in the end, even if Ukraine was to retake most of the territory it has lost, which seems less and less likely as the years pass.

Wars of this kind never have winners. Russia also lost too many soldiers to celebrate anything.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#478

Post by budsniffer952 »

marcus_holmes wrote: post #396
ericmay wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of differences. One of the chief differences was that during World War II the United States continental homeland was pretty much untouchable, which allowed the United States and the allies access to a secure and resource rich supply chain that helped lead to victory over the Axis powers. In an engagement with China it is likely that both sides would be able to strike each other's defense industrial ba…

> So far nobody has built a tank, plane, or ship that can run on batteries and while drone technology has continued to advance in many critical ways they don't bring the big bombs quite yet. Ukraine is proving that the "big bombs" are useless - fpv drones can and do take out tanks, planes and ships. They don't survive long enough to deliver the "big bombs". Russia is currently reduced to sending in unmechanised light…

You realize Russia has drones too, right? And also artillery shell manufacturing capacity 2x the west? And they continue to bombard Ukraine?

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#479

Post by ExoticPearTree »

Animats wrote: post #288
lo_zamoyski wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if we're talking Ukraine, we have to talk Poland as it has been facilitating 90% of all Western military equipment, humanitarian aid, and crucial trade deliveries into the country. Poland is, of course, geopolitically positioned in a way that requires at least regional power status to survive if not thrive. A power vacuum in Poland is bad news for the security of Europe and Poland's immediate neighbors and region…

Poland and the Baltics know they're next on Putin's list. So they're glad to help Ukraine. Better than fighting the Russians on home territory. Taiwan and Japan, though, aren't in Russia's line of fire. The cooperation with Ukraine is because Ukraine figured out how to stop Russia. Taiwan has a real threat, and if they can build defenses that mean China faces a years-long war, there probably won't be one.

> Taiwan has a real threat, and if they can build defenses that mean China faces a years-long war, there probably won't be one.

China could just bomb Taiwan into submission if it chooses to. I don't think it is a problem for China to build 20-30k ballistic missile and launch them at Taiwan. Or send a million drones over there just to be sure nothing survives them.

Taiwan is, unfortunately, in a very precarious situation should China decide enough is enough and reunification must happen no matter what.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#480

Post by Brybry »

ericmay wrote: post #351
giantg2 wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US manufacturing capacity was a huge factor in winning WW2. I wonder who holds that advantage now...

There are a lot of differences. One of the chief differences was that during World War II the United States continental homeland was pretty much untouchable, which allowed the United States and the allies access to a secure and resource rich supply chain that helped lead to victory over the Axis powers. In an engagement with China it is likely that both sides would be able to strike each other's defense industrial ba…

China does have nuclear-powered submarines and they are currently building a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier (type 004). [1]

[1] https://features.csis.org/hiddenreach/china-fourth-carrier/

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