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The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

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Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#461

Post by stymaar »

TSiege wrote: post #232
pphysch wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It absolutely does, it can simply choose to not bomb Iran after Iran enforces regulations on its (shared with Oman) waterway. Bombing Iran for a month because Iran fired on 4 ships that were violating its SoH rules is wildly disproportionate and optional.

This is not necessarily true. Yes the strait of hormuz is technically in their territorial waters, but it has been recognized as an international water way until recently. Every country with a port on the other side of the strait is going to lose access. This might not be a tolerable situation to those allies of ours and they also have the ability to force the war to drag on. Maybe we walk and pull out from our bases…

> This is not necessarily true. Yes the strait of hormuz is technically in their territorial waters, but it has been recognized as an international water way until recently.

Yes, until the US bombed Iran and then signed a terrible MoU that didn't reject Iranians claim of control of the said waterway…

As former French Ambassador Gerard Araud puts it, the US diplomacy has been deeply incompetent during the negotiations and they gave way too much to Iran in the MoU. As a result, at this point the US cannot realy claim Iran is infringing international laws anymore (not that international laws matter to the current US admin anyway)

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#462

Post by Cthulhu_ »

bix6 wrote: post #151
elictronic wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is a 2024 article pointing out China doing exactly this and Ukraine making many of the blocked items at home. You might be 2 years to late with this comment. https://kyivindependent.com/as-china-weaponizes-the-drone-su... China controls much of the integration and many of the low level components for super low cost electronics and motors. They aren't the ones controlling all the fabs for the circuits and integra…

Thanks for linking this is interesting. It sounds like they are still unable to produce many of the base components though? > most manufacturers of everything within Ukraine remain dependent on imported machining tools — traditionally Chinese, but increasingly Indian and, for those who can afford it, European. But for the cheapest components, simple base-line products like transistors, circuit boards, wiring, or sola…

It's not so much a matter of can, but willingness and (worse) economic viability. But recent worldwide instability - from leadership changes to supply disruptions to war - has given that a push.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#464

Post by wartywhoa23 »

zemvpferreira wrote: post #457
wartywhoa23 wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the goto excuse, or mantra if you will, deeply programmed into people by those who need cannon fodder to protect heaps of loot robbed from said fodder. "We". "War is in our genes". Start with "me". Do I need war? Do I want war? Do I have something that differentiates me from a simian? To bear a reasoning mind, and have a heart that is capable of love, and still to appeal to the animal foundation is a total be…

I don't want or need war, but I won't deny to having felt tribal impulses before. I won't deny culture and groups are different from individuals. Idealism is fine until it starts interfering with reality.

> Idealism is fine until it starts interfering with reality.

Idealism has been carving into reality nonetheless.

Our current standards of living are straight out of platonic Eidos, compared to those of our cave-dwelling predecessors.

Computers are also a perfect example of materialized ideals. Airplanes, Internet, space exploration, you name it.

Why should that stop at war for any reason other than someone having a deep vested interest in it?

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#465

Post by Cthulhu_ »

asdff wrote: post #194
dgacmu wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's inability to have a decisive victory against Ukraine is at odds with the idea that it has sufficient stockpiles and launch capability to reduce kiev to rubble any time it wishes. If it had that capability, it would have the capability to destroy Ukraine's defense manufacturing sector - or simply its entire manufacturing sector - which it clearly does not. It's also at odds with the evidence that Russia is la…

I guess the question becomes then why did putin start the war without sufficient buildup of missile reserves to flatten Kyiv in the first few days? And why not contract with israeli defense companies for precision missile technology? It doesn't seem like their relations are really that severed even with the whole Iran issue. One would also think China might also appreciate a client willing to battle test their precis…

Flattening a city doesn't win a war. They started the war with the intent of driving tanks into the city and overthrow the government in three days, but (as the article mentions) that didn't work out.

But flattening cities is a WW2 strategy, and it didn't actually do much to win the war in the end, only cause unnecessary civilian suffering.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#466

Post by m000 »

bad_haircut72 wrote: post #58
malfist wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years The Russia/Ukraine war has a goal, to make Ukraine either part of Russia or a client state. What's the goal of the US/Iran war? So far it seems like the goal is to mostly return to the status quo prior to the war. I can't imagine that could continue 5 years because there's just not an objective. Of course, I could easily be mistaken.

Once you've lost something (I think sooner or later, Iran will succeed in sinking a big US ship) then even if you cant win, you also cant leave else its an admission of defeat - so it drags on and on and on.

I think they can already sink any US ship that comes in range if they want to. And the US knows it too. But for different reasons, it's in neither's interest to go there.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#467

Post by Cthulhu_ »

siriusastrebe wrote: post #166
asdff wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is kind of interesting seeing the ukraine war tiptoe from actually striking the tail in earnest. We see some attacks on moscow refineries in recent days, yes, but why not full scale targeting of total industrial collapse of the russian state? Similarly, why doesn't Kyiv look like Gaza? I guess ukraine doesn't want to be slapped equally hard. We see this in the iran war too. Small scale, targeted attacks to some ch…

Moscow could only accomplish this with nukes, and only early in the war. By this point Ukraine has dug underground for most of its crucial war-sustaining industry. Ukraine, well they don't have nukes but as I understand it, much of the USSR's nuclear arsenal was built in Ukraine. I suspect Ukraine could respond tit for tat.

Plus deploying nukes would be a guaranteed escalation - after WW2 nobody has ever used nukes in war because of this.

But it would and always has been the last resort. If Russia feels like they have no choice left, they might do it.

But also, at the start of the war they used it as a deterrent, promising to use them if e.g. Ukraine were to strike across the border. That ended up being a false threat in the end, but you can see how Ukraine only slowly and carefully started becoming more and more bold with going across the border. All bets are off now though, with long range drones being used to target the very vulnerable refineries and oil industry. If they take out the power industry as well, and given time, it'll collapse Russia's military logistics network and isolate the front lines from supplies.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#468

Post by mschuster91 »

caycep wrote: post #376
Animats wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poland and the Baltics know they're next on Putin's list. So they're glad to help Ukraine. Better than fighting the Russians on home territory. Taiwan and Japan, though, aren't in Russia's line of fire. The cooperation with Ukraine is because Ukraine figured out how to stop Russia. Taiwan has a real threat, and if they can build defenses that mean China faces a years-long war, there probably won't be one.

I think they already have that, they want to make sure it stays that way alternatively, there's a Dennis Ross piece out pointing out that China's procurement patterns over the years suggests they are not seriously thinking of invading Taiwan, they just want everyone to think that way...

> they just want everyone to think that way

That's the thing with religious or ideologically driven dictators. They're nutjobs, not beholden to reality in their decisionmaking but to whatever their ideology prescribes - and thus are prone to making decisions that seem to (or end up being) utterly stupid / irrational.

With Yugoslavia, it was Tito's idea to force all the various countries into one common ethnicity. With Russia, it is Putin's dream of restoring "Greater Russia". With China, it's the dream of re-unification with Taiwan on one side, and reversing what is seen as a land grab by back-then Czarist Russia in Outer Manchuria. With Trump it is the desperate desire to be beloved (and the desire of his Project 2025 handlers to turn the US into an ethno-christo-nationalist state). With Ben Gvir and Smotrich in Israel, it is the desire to wipe out anything Palestinian.

And the result of these madmen was and is an untold amount of needless suffering. There is no reason at all to not believe what China is openly saying [1] and to prepare accordingly. Better be prepared than be sorry.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/31/xi-jinping-vow...

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#469

Post by m000 »

bad_haircut72 wrote: post #406
dctoedt wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think sooner or later, Iran will succeed in sinking a big US ship Sinking or even just seriously damaging a U.S. aircraft carrier — approx. 5K people in crew + airwing, billions of dollars in ship and aircraft — might trigger a Pearl-Harbor or 9/11 fury among the American public. No U.S. president could get away with even a "proportionate" response, let alone doing nothing. Think of the Tonkin Gulf incident in 19…

Yeah exactly, thats how you win wars, you force the enemy to do things they dont really want to do.

Win the war, lose the empire.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#470

Post by streetfighter64 »

ashdksnndck wrote: post #291
wnevets wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's the goal of the US/Iran war? To make certain people money by shorting the oil market. There is a reason why these "peace" deals are always announced on Fridays.

I never got the logic of this conspiracy theory. If you’re trying to make money insider trading off some events, wouldn’t you want markets to be open when the events occur? You’d like to be able to enter and exit your position immediately before and after any news breaks. Markets being closed when a deal is announced makes it less efficient to trade on that news.

You're calling it a "conspiracy theory" despite loads of evidence of insider trading, both traditional and crypto, by Trump and his cronies? Do you think the Trump-Epstein connections are just a "conspiracy theory" as well?
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