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The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

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Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#381

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

zemvpferreira wrote: post #356
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that, when PRC cuts off the parts, there are backstops for alternate sourcing most of them even if it means reopening mines to get the materials and subsidizing production.

I don't mean to belittle the American war machine but as someone involved in overseas manufacturing for a while, I just don't see how it's possible to source 90% of items now made in China without a solid decade or two of investment. There are no factories, no supply chains, no skilled workers. It seems like fantasy.

The US defense industry keeps track of these things. Civilian production will suffer but the military will keep itself supplied.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#382

Post by croes »

bad_haircut72 wrote: post #58
malfist wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years The Russia/Ukraine war has a goal, to make Ukraine either part of Russia or a client state. What's the goal of the US/Iran war? So far it seems like the goal is to mostly return to the status quo prior to the war. I can't imagine that could continue 5 years because there's just not an objective. Of course, I could easily be mistaken.

Once you've lost something (I think sooner or later, Iran will succeed in sinking a big US ship) then even if you cant win, you also cant leave else its an admission of defeat - so it drags on and on and on.

The have the Strait of Hormuz, a much bigger asset than sinking a US ship

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#383

Post by eszed »

m_dupont wrote: post #256
yborg wrote: post #92

I wonder when the use of 'culminate', v. "reach a climax or point of highest development" for "cease to be effective" became the standard in military-related writing when trying to sound smart. The original usage in the specific context of an army's advance or offensive coming to an end made some sense but it's now used as basically a wordy synonym for "stops" in any context.

I'm also loving their phrase "on a nonlinear battlefield" ... not sure what a linear battlefield would be

Static (relatively, at least) battle lines? Think of WWI: you knew where the danger was, and where it wasn't.

Not that I know anything in particular about this piece of military jargon, but that's my contextually-informed supposition.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#384

Post by croes »

paxys wrote: post #345
bad_haircut72 wrote: post #6

When Russia invaded Ukraine, nobody (even the Ukranians) imagined that 5 years later they would have their own missiles hammering Russia 2500kms in the rear. Americans need to start accepting that a) the Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years and b) Iran will probably in a better place than they are now, strategically speaking.

Big difference between the two - America has elections.

Iran and Russia have elections too

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#385

Post by phyzome »

briandw wrote: post #115

These systems are antifragile. Just like what was exposed by the supply chain shock during covid. You optimize like crazy to squeeze every bit of efficiency (I know it's the military, so this is relative) out of a system when times are good / easy. Then the game changes a little and the entire thing comes apart. The US military has been operating in an uncontested space for far too long and there is major weakness in…

By antifragile, do you mean fragile?

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#386

Post by gerdesj »

My old man used to say: "an army marches on its stomach".

Most people hereabouts will be wittering on about how best to kill people/do stuff with drones and forget that logistics is rather more complicated than killing things.

Fundamentally: people need food, water and shelter. Vehicles need fuel, mechanics and stuff. Killing people and destroying stuff needs ammunition or at least something sharp (and that will need something to keep it sharp).

Then you need to coordinate all this stuff, along with comms and a lot more details that I've not mentioned.

Then you need to persuade your troops to do their medieval best on the opposition and hope it works.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#387

Post by post-it »

9dev wrote: post #241
post-it wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure anything is a distraction from the Epstein files. I don't think the administration cares about the Epstein files. What would be the fallout if they were all released? We already know that a lot of wealthy people were raping children. It's not like the US is going to prosecute.

So why exactly is the department of justice in contempt of congress and a judge right now, refusing to release them? Why are the names of perpetrators in the files censored, while those of victims remained clear? Why has not a single person been prosecuted since the files were released?

Because Trump likes being antagonistic. And the notion that plundering America is just a distraction from the files is itself a convenient distraction from the plundering of America.

> Why has not a single person been prosecuted since the files were released?

Because the perpetrators run the government.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#388

Post by eszed »

siriusastrebe wrote: post #214
AlexCoventry wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to Zelensky, there will be drones capable of traversing tens of thousands of kilometers within a couple of years. The US mainland is definitely at risk of drone attack in the near-medium term, IMO. > One, two, three years — drones will strike ten, twenty thousand kilometers. With reactive engines, they will be very cheap -- Zelensky https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/2042105223989035429

I did some digging, reaction engines are jet engines that can transition into a rocket propelled mode. It could enable a single stage to orbit plane. Within the atmosphere the jet engine will burn atmospheric oxygen which would theoretically reduce the amount of fuel needed to reach a certain delta-V. Once outside of the atmosphere the engine switches to a rocket propelled mode, usually by injecting stored oxygen int…

I have a friend whose dad finished his engineering career at SABRE (he retired some years before it shut down). According to him, the original concept wasn't far-fetched, but that they didn't crack some manufacturing / materials issues. He thought they should have continued to work on those, instead of redesigning to avoid them. He had retired by the time we spoke about it, and I don't know the particular model / design to which he was referring. If that's accurate, then possibly materials technology / manufacturing techniques have matured to the point that the "simpler" design he preferred could be feasible. That's all second-hand speculation, so take it with a dose of salt, but a short timeline might be reasonable.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#389

Post by xvedejas »

LPisGood wrote: post #148
cucumber3732842 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tooth to tail is crappy PC/corporate-approved rename. The concept used to have a bunch of arrow and spear related names and a bunch of informal phallic counterparts all of which are better suited to the fundamental workflow of mechanized offensive operations.

For curiosity’s sake, what were these things referred to historically and informally?

Reading between the lines, it sounds like it was probably one of "tip"/"point"/"head" and "shaft", or similar

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#390

Post by briandw »

phyzome wrote: post #385
briandw wrote: post #115

These systems are antifragile. Just like what was exposed by the supply chain shock during covid. You optimize like crazy to squeeze every bit of efficiency (I know it's the military, so this is relative) out of a system when times are good / easy. Then the game changes a little and the entire thing comes apart. The US military has been operating in an uncontested space for far too long and there is major weakness in…

By antifragile, do you mean fragile?

I mean that when you have a system like this and you don’t stress it, it becomes more likely to fail catastrophically. It’s like the Dodo bird. It evolved in the absence of predators, so was easily made extinct. Had the island had dogs the entire time, the Dodo would have evolved to survive.
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