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The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

mwi.westpoint.edu

341–350 of 701 posts

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Running a blockade is a risky proposition; it's not something that happens by accident. A lot of these "neutral" countries either host US military bases, US companies, or are otherwise aligned generally with the US.

Are they sailing under the flags of nations who are combatants in this war, yes or no?

What difference does that make? A blockade is a blockade, and oil is fungible, so it doesn't matter whose flag it is. Run a blockade, get blown up. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Remember, the US blew up an UNARMED Iranian ship after what was basically a parade at sea in the Indian Ocean. The US started this, and keeps it going.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#342

China has missed their window of opportunity, sadly. For the next big war, the US will simply not even need to air or sea to deliver weapons or supplies (see SpaceX's StarFall, of which 60x4 should fit into Starship). Per my calculations, the JDAM version of this will be cheaper than flying planes (and pilots) to drop bombs or cruise missiles. For small(er) wars, cheap drones break everything as they can destroy your…

The next war is going to need the US to do something pretty spectacular if it’s going to reclaim the ground it’s lost in the Iran war. The situation there is an utter joke, and shows no sign of wrapping up any time soon.

That’s because there’s no political will for ground forces by the US because it’s a dumb war. If there was political will, then the area around the Hormuz strait would’ve been seized, as well as the nuclear sites secured. Carpet bombing, too, not just surgical strikes.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#343
post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the most optimistic Russian does not think Russia will ever get beyond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya which is not much more than Russia currently occupies. You really think they will eventually march over Ukraine on to Warsaw?? That’s as likely as the exiled Chinese government in Taiwan taking over China.

When the war started, it certainly looked like it. Russian soldiers were in Kyiv at one point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022) It was the failure of Russian logistics and the triumph of Ukrainian logistics that beat them back.

Credit certainly that Russian logistics failed, but was it Ukrainian logistics that beat them back or was it Ukrainian logistics and heroism alongside American and British support, intelligence, and 24/7 airlifts of critical weapons and equipment that beat them back?

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#344
post #157

When Russia invaded Ukraine, nobody (even the Ukranians) imagined that 5 years later they would have their own missiles hammering Russia 2500kms in the rear. Americans need to start accepting that a) the Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years and b) Iran will probably in a better place than they are now, strategically speaking.

People assumed Russia would press with their full might and that has just yet to ever happen. Why don't they carpet bomb all of the ukraine? Why not fire off a littany of missiles? Why not conscript the bulk of their manpower reserves and actually invade in earnest? Everyone assumed the war would be over in two weeks, because it really could have ended in two weeks if russia went full throttle early on. But there mus…

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Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#345

When Russia invaded Ukraine, nobody (even the Ukranians) imagined that 5 years later they would have their own missiles hammering Russia 2500kms in the rear. Americans need to start accepting that a) the Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years and b) Iran will probably in a better place than they are now, strategically speaking.

Big difference between the two - America has elections.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having followed SpaceX since the beginning, this is not true at all. People doubted every single step. Industry experts did.

People doubt the timelines, not the claims. The timelines are pure fantasy and have been since the start.

Nah, it was everything. Everyone expects aerospace timelines to slip. That wasn’t the issue. I had an aerospace greybeard (guidance and navigation expert… nice guy, btw) from a civilian space agency that you would recognize tell me that booster landing on a droneship was “impossible.”

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#347
post #113
post #72

I was puzzled by this: "...the Army must reinvest in up-armoring its logistical fleet. While adding armor reduces payload capacity and increases fuel consumption, violating the peacetime gospel of efficiency, it is a mandatory trade-off for survival." Where are the armored vehicles now in Ukraine? I don't hear much about them, and I thought that was because drones can find the weaknesses in armor. Instead the emphasi…

> Where are the armored vehicles now in Ukraine? A more appropriate question might be, where are the armored vehicles now in Russia? And as it turns out, they have indeed started adding armor to transport craft, including trains: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_armoured_train_Yenisei And despite Ukrainian strikes earlier, the Russian bridge over the Kerch strait remains standing and in use for some (not all) lo…

"A more appropriate question might be, where are the armored vehicles now in Russia?"

Well, that's what I meant, where are the Russian armored vehicles in Ukraine. Because I consider the areas that Russia occupies to be temporarily occupied Ukraine.

Although you (I) could ask where the armored vehicles are that the US and other countries gave to Ukraine. For awhile, Bradley Fighting Vehicles (lightly armored) and M1A1 Abrams were making a lot of news (I think the former were doing surprisingly well, and the latter not as good as expected). But lately I have heard very little about either, or about other armored vehicles that were given to Ukraine.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#348
post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poland and the Baltics know they're next on Putin's list. So they're glad to help Ukraine. Better than fighting the Russians on home territory. Taiwan and Japan, though, aren't in Russia's line of fire. The cooperation with Ukraine is because Ukraine figured out how to stop Russia. Taiwan has a real threat, and if they can build defenses that mean China faces a years-long war, there probably won't be one.

Even the most optimistic Russian does not think Russia will ever get beyond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya which is not much more than Russia currently occupies. You really think they will eventually march over Ukraine on to Warsaw?? That’s as likely as the exiled Chinese government in Taiwan taking over China.

There have been rumblings of a Russian attack on Poland for awhile.

https://youtu.be/NVnbtbtgu2Y?is=2lMFmF2kQ0SXqIw0

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-pla...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provoca...

Polish news: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043294/

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The head of Poland's Foreign Ministry noted that he cannot comment on intelligence data but stressed that Russia has long been waging a hybrid war against Poland and France.

He said this involves cyberattacks on state systems, attempts to gather information on critical infrastructure using shadow fleet vessels, arson, sabotage on railways and drone attacks.

Sikorski also recalled that before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia allegedly prepared false flag provocations to create a pretext for starting the war. At the time, American intelligence warnings helped thwart those plans.

"Today you must believe us – not just me, but other countries too – that we have credible information that the Russians are planning something again. The purpose of these warnings is to discourage them from carrying out these provocations," he said.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, for his part, confirmed that Paris is also recording increased Russian hybrid activity.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#349
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the folks disagreeing with you maybe haven't spent much time in war. Almost certainly some in harsh skirmishes, but I reckon a few Nam, Korea and WWII vets would at least entertain your position on the subject. Pretty much every meta variation of terror has surfaced or has the potential to surface in war. Parts of Ukraine, I think, easily represent hell on Earth, for both sides. Edit: I will go a bit further.…

Sorry for the personal question, but are you a military vet? Because from the way you seem to respect soldiers yet abhor war, it sure does seem that you are.

Only family, friends, and family and friends of the world yet unmet. No. I am not a vet. I've endured episodes of parochial dispute resulting in brutal combat, but always had a home to retire to at the end of the day. Having a functional imagination, general fealty to reality and a wide ear for the reports of others, I can easily surmise the amplified and sustained version of my own exposure. I also love what I love, and know the curse of losing it indefinitely. War pretty much promises an abundance of that. Many vets fester their whole lives in guilt, wishing it was they, not the other (a friend, an innocent) that was lost. I could spiral downward, but shouldn't.

Humans are a tough bunch. We rationalize some fairly insane shit. I've met folks subjected to things that would break me, and they just carry on. I think my perspective on the matter is starkly different from most vets. Where they shrug it off and move along, I sulk and brood. I think I am impervious to being a vet. I'd improbably make it so far. When I enlisted for the Navy, as young uneducated man, weeks passed, and I called several times each week. "we don't know yet" they'd say. And I'd call again. And on the final call, I asked, "when can I start?" they replied "You can't, but I'll put you on the phone now with the Marines..". I put down the phone. I've wondered at times if that was a mistake, and I think for what I might have contributed to good folks it might have been, but with my exceedingly compromised (by design?) view of geopolitics, I don't regret my choice.

What I can say with sincerity: Military is a sacred power, the bulwark comprising of enlisted soldiers. What each of them seek, or whatever the impetus for enlistment, those that wield them would be wise to hesitate when endeavoring to exploit them.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#350
I know nothing about the topic BUT I can remember John Kirby and Jake Sullivan regularly talking logistics, Poland, and other things mentioned here. I don't think I've heard those things from this administration's reps. Not sure if not hearing is good or bad. I sure learned a bunch from Kirby and Sullivan, though.
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