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The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

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Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#241

Post by 9dev »

post-it wrote: post #116
Varelion wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's the goal of the US/Iran war? Distract from the Epstein files. If you think anything else you: 1 - Haven't been paying attention since 2008. 2 - Are giving the administration way too much undeserved credit.

I'm not sure anything is a distraction from the Epstein files. I don't think the administration cares about the Epstein files. What would be the fallout if they were all released? We already know that a lot of wealthy people were raping children. It's not like the US is going to prosecute.

So why exactly is the department of justice in contempt of congress and a judge right now, refusing to release them?

Why are the names of perpetrators in the files censored, while those of victims remained clear?

Why has not a single person been prosecuted since the files were released?

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#242

Post by lostlogin »

asdff wrote: post #188
KittenInABox wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that Russia's "full throttle" isn't actually as strong as they had posed...

It has to be stronger than Israel just from scale, and that seems plenty strong enough to level a modern city in a few days or weeks.

> that seems plenty strong enough to level a modern city in a few days or weeks

How would they do this?

The don’t control the sky or the ground. It’s down to ballistic missiles and drones. Many of these can be shot down.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#243

Post by skywhopper »

asdff wrote: post #169
siriusastrebe wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moscow could only accomplish this with nukes, and only early in the war. By this point Ukraine has dug underground for most of its crucial war-sustaining industry. Ukraine, well they don't have nukes but as I understand it, much of the USSR's nuclear arsenal was built in Ukraine. I suspect Ukraine could respond tit for tat.

Why can they not use firebombing and other conventional munitions? If they can deliver a nuke surely they can deliver a conventional warhead. That is enough to level an urban area as we see in Gaza.

Because Russia doesn’t actually have the resources to do this at the scale required. Russia is also not trying to obliterate Ukraine. They want to take over a real economy, not a wasteland.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#244

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

malfist wrote: post #11
bad_haircut72 wrote: post #6

When Russia invaded Ukraine, nobody (even the Ukranians) imagined that 5 years later they would have their own missiles hammering Russia 2500kms in the rear. Americans need to start accepting that a) the Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years and b) Iran will probably in a better place than they are now, strategically speaking.

> Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years The Russia/Ukraine war has a goal, to make Ukraine either part of Russia or a client state. What's the goal of the US/Iran war? So far it seems like the goal is to mostly return to the status quo prior to the war. I can't imagine that could continue 5 years because there's just not an objective. Of course, I could easily be mistaken.

> The Russia/Ukraine war has a goal, to make Ukraine either part of Russia or a client state.

No, it has a goal to keep Putin in power.

The Iran war happened to move people's interest from a certain set of files about a certain group people onto something else.

It succeeded by that standard, but now has created the mess that you can't just start a war with a country to distract your voters and not suffer any consequences from it.

Iran was not thrilled to be bombed to play a part in this distraction.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#245

Post by mrguyorama »

asdff wrote: post #169
siriusastrebe wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moscow could only accomplish this with nukes, and only early in the war. By this point Ukraine has dug underground for most of its crucial war-sustaining industry. Ukraine, well they don't have nukes but as I understand it, much of the USSR's nuclear arsenal was built in Ukraine. I suspect Ukraine could respond tit for tat.

Why can they not use firebombing and other conventional munitions? If they can deliver a nuke surely they can deliver a conventional warhead. That is enough to level an urban area as we see in Gaza.

Russia cannot fly a plane into Ukrainian airspace. They barely even fly over Russia's side of the line right now.

They toss bomb from miles back.

Flying conventional bombers over enemy cities requires the ability to replace most of your bombers per year, or air supremacy, neither of which Russia has even a hope of doing.

WW2 was industrialized the likes of which nobody has ever seen again.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#246

Post by margalabargala »

AlexCoventry wrote: post #174
LinuxAmbulance wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I found it interesting that not even this article thinks about it that the US mainland ever can be attacked It can be, but it would be very, very difficult for anything short of lobbing ICBMs around. You'd have to have a fleet of ships that would be detected as soon as they set sail, and then protect that fleet for the entire voyage, which would also be extremely difficult for any adversary. Getting boots on US soi…

According to Zelensky, there will be drones capable of traversing tens of thousands of kilometers within a couple of years. The US mainland is definitely at risk of drone attack in the near-medium term, IMO. > One, two, three years — drones will strike ten, twenty thousand kilometers. With reactive engines, they will be very cheap -- Zelensky https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/2042105223989035429

North Korea and Iran both have orbital launch vehicles. If you can put something in orbit, that's most of the way to putting something in Times Square or DC.

This hasn't happened yet. And much easier, more deniable attacks like car bombings of these places also hasn't happened to any real degree.

The mass shootings in the US are mostly performed by Americans, usually right-wing Americans, and the percentage performed by foreigners is close to zero. Looking forward to some right wing American replying linking to individual examples of foreigners doing mass shootings as though that disproves the point.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#247

Post by lostlogin »

greedo wrote: post #212
asdff wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has to be stronger than Israel just from scale, and that seems plenty strong enough to level a modern city in a few days or weeks.

Scale doesn't really matter with an air force. The IAF is much, much stronger and more competent than the Russian Air Force. Plus, the Israelis are bombing defenseless cities (in Lebanon), and getting a lot of help from the US (in Iran).

> the Israelis are bombing defenseless cities (in Lebanon), and getting a lot of help from the US (in Iran).

No need for the brackets.

The Israelis also bombed defenceless Gaza and had a lot of help from the US with that.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#248

Post by noosphr »

Robotbeat wrote: post #225
shimman wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No serious really argued that; what they argued is that a Mars colony is impractical, interplanetary travel as a fantasy, and data centers in space as delusional.

Having followed SpaceX since the beginning, this is not true at all. People doubted every single step. Industry experts did.

People doubt the timelines, not the claims. The timelines are pure fantasy and have been since the start.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#249

Post by marking-time »

lostlogin wrote: post #211
asdff wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can they not use firebombing and other conventional munitions? If they can deliver a nuke surely they can deliver a conventional warhead. That is enough to level an urban area as we see in Gaza.

Israel levelled Gaza after capturing the area, with artillery and with air strikes. Russia hasn’t captured Kiev, their artillery can’t reach that far and they don’t have air superiority - Russia hardly has an airforce anymore.

Also worth remembering that Gaza is effectively an island when it comes to logistics. This made it easy for Israel to cut off food/medicine/fuel. Essentially medieval siege warfare transferred to the present day.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#250

Post by lostlogin »

a34729t wrote: post #182

China has missed their window of opportunity, sadly. For the next big war, the US will simply not even need to air or sea to deliver weapons or supplies (see SpaceX's StarFall, of which 60x4 should fit into Starship). Per my calculations, the JDAM version of this will be cheaper than flying planes (and pilots) to drop bombs or cruise missiles. For small(er) wars, cheap drones break everything as they can destroy your…

The next war is going to need the US to do something pretty spectacular if it’s going to reclaim the ground it’s lost in the Iran war.

The situation there is an utter joke, and shows no sign of wrapping up any time soon.

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