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What's slowing down the AI buildout

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Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#61
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They probably are aware of nuclear waste and of the modalities of dealing with it, and still believe that not investing into nuclear is shooting yourself in the foot. FYI, a typical 1GW nuclear plant produces 30 tons, or 10m3, of high-level waste. Germany uses ~500TWh of electricity per year. So Germany could replace all their electricity generation with 60 nuclear plants and would need to find space for 1800 tons or…

Solar doesn’t produce that much waste either and that was the point. Just because you don’t see the nuclear waste doesn’t mean it isn’t sitting there somewhere. The person was acting as if clean energy is dirty via its waste. For the record I’m all for nuclear - it’s insane we’ve regressed so much and not invested into more. But it’s also insane we’re not taking more advantage of green energy where we can.

Most of the solar panels are pretty non-dangerous waste (cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar panels are dangerous waste, but are currently only small part of installed solar panels).

Silicon tetrachloride used for silicon production is toxic and has to handled carefully.

The main point is that, if Europe wants to invest more in solar power, it should also do the manufacturing in Europe and waste disposal in Europe.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#62
post #17
post #5

The primary bottleneck to this growth is the availability of electricity. The bottleneck for building some AI datacentres and switching them on is electricity, sure, but that's not what drives growth. There also needs to be demand for the additional capacity; people need to be waiting for capacity to catch up so they can do the useful work that grows [society|GDP|something] that they aren't doing right now. There's a…

In the Innovation Adoption Curve, we are absolutely beyond the Early Adopters phase and possibly the Early Majority. The growth rates necessarily have to start trending down because there’s no one left to sell to.

I'm not sure if the classic adoption curve applies. Has there ever been a product that vendors were shoving down customer's throats as relentlessly as AI?

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#63
post #37

Project Kilby is probably the most intelligent approach to this problem so far. https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2026/q2/chevron-signs-20-ye... The idea is to bring the data centers, power generators and energy supply together in the ~same physical space so the only thing you have to transmit is data. Moving energy is way more expensive than moving information.

> Moving energy is way more expensive than moving information

But this project is still moving energy- it's just moving natural gas instead of electricity!

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#64
post #10

TFA isn’t about consumer usage, it is about training the next generation models. An interesting thought I heard recently is that a SOTA model has about the same parameters as the number of synapses in a Golden Retriever’s brain that are not dedicated to biological processes like breathing. Most of that should be wrapped in double quotes, don’t take it literally! But that number is about 100x lower than the same synap…

just wait. the current gold rush has left any consideration of efficiency or price-performance at the side of the road. the entire enterprise is structured as a 'whoever can spend the most money wins the game for all time'. if we can get past that and invest more in theory and systems at a natural pace it'll just keep getting more affordable over time.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#66
I think at the very least, once the dust settles, a lot of these datacenters could become really really cool haunted houses, giant escape rooms, etc.

The real "AI" success story will be the person that makes an IRL backrooms theme park in the husk of a datacenter.

Or: laser tag park, the vests you wear are in part old tpu/gpu components.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#69
post #41
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who is opposing renewable energy? The current US admin: Trump’s Multi-Pronged Attack on Renewable Energy https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?par... but they are slowly being beaten back: Trump admin abandons fight against wind energy as clean energy output surges - https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/06/trump-admin-abandons... The Trumpian adventures in Iran have wrong footed his fossil fuel b…

He hates wind turbines because he simply doesn't like how they look, and couldn't stop them next to one of his golf courses. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15l3knp4xyo

If there was an oil refinery that looked exactly the same as a turbine from the outside, I would bet that he would love how those would look. The root cause is something else. Hmmm...

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#70
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unit economics for renewables coupled with storage are excellent. I agree we should reform nuclear regulation to allow new nuclear plants to pencil out. I disagree that we should discount the value of renewables.

Solar and wind take up a bunch of space and generate a bunch of waste after the panels are decommissioned, plus the wind generators are ruining every single landscape we have. With 5 nuclear stations per country you could cleanup so much of Europe.

  > plus the wind generators are ruining every single landscape we have.
This feels, uh, wildly overstated.
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