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The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

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Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#101

Post by QuercusMax »

ApolloFortyNine wrote: post #67
malfist wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years The Russia/Ukraine war has a goal, to make Ukraine either part of Russia or a client state. What's the goal of the US/Iran war? So far it seems like the goal is to mostly return to the status quo prior to the war. I can't imagine that could continue 5 years because there's just not an objective. Of course, I could easily be mistaken.

Well at this point the goal is for Iran to stop randomly blowing up innocent cargo ships. Or firing missiles at airports and cities in retaliation. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-war-live-us-says-iranian-...

If that's the goal then the US and Israel are doing their best to stop it from happening. Iran is responding to provocations. Stop provoking them, no more blown up ships.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#102

Post by malcolmgreaves »

anjel wrote: post #39
mcphage wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's the goal of the US/Iran war? What's the goal?! The US/Iran war has a ton of goals! Every day a new goal, each as improbable as the last.

As with Ukraine, it's a David and Goliath kind of conflict and in both conflicts, the temptation for Goliath to escalate by leveraging scale is predictable, tempting and frought.

Iran is not David in this case. They’ve shown that their drone warfare is just a little bit under what the US military can provide. Remember that they destroyed a quarter of a trillion dollars radar installation. And the US has spent billions on munitions. The US can’t actually keep going in this war.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#103

Post by tbrake »

malfist wrote: post #11
bad_haircut72 wrote: post #6

When Russia invaded Ukraine, nobody (even the Ukranians) imagined that 5 years later they would have their own missiles hammering Russia 2500kms in the rear. Americans need to start accepting that a) the Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years and b) Iran will probably in a better place than they are now, strategically speaking.

> Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years The Russia/Ukraine war has a goal, to make Ukraine either part of Russia or a client state. What's the goal of the US/Iran war? So far it seems like the goal is to mostly return to the status quo prior to the war. I can't imagine that could continue 5 years because there's just not an objective. Of course, I could easily be mistaken.

> What's the goal of the US/Iran war?

kneecaping china by cutting off a huge source of its oil imports. Russia will not be able to make up the difference.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#104

Post by lenerdenator »

The entire body of assumptions that the post-Cold War US military was built on is flawed. China didn't democratize, Russia's oligarchs didn't stop using NATO as their boogeyman, and the world isn't willing to turn dictatorships and ultraconservative theocracies into pariah states.

All of that was assumed to be true. The US would do small police actions here and there with highly-specialized forces. The rules-based system would more-or-less do the rest.

In the meantime we gutted not only the logistics but the manufacturing base needed to feed that system so that we could "cut costs"... which didn't really happen anyways.

We should be throwing people in prison over this.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#105

Post by lenerdenator »

malfist wrote: post #11
bad_haircut72 wrote: post #6

When Russia invaded Ukraine, nobody (even the Ukranians) imagined that 5 years later they would have their own missiles hammering Russia 2500kms in the rear. Americans need to start accepting that a) the Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years and b) Iran will probably in a better place than they are now, strategically speaking.

> Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years The Russia/Ukraine war has a goal, to make Ukraine either part of Russia or a client state. What's the goal of the US/Iran war? So far it seems like the goal is to mostly return to the status quo prior to the war. I can't imagine that could continue 5 years because there's just not an objective. Of course, I could easily be mistaken.

> What's the goal of the US/Iran war?

It varies. Which is the problem.

I can think of a few:

1) Severely kneecap the Iranians' nuclear ambitions. This one might actually be working to an extent.

2) Severely kneecap the Iranians' military ambitions in the Middle East as a whole, particularly with respect to Israel. This remains unknown. Their neighbors seem content to give them a pass for launching missiles into their infrastructure, possibly on the grounds of shared religion. Maybe they'll get tired of it.

3) Cause regime change in Iran. Not happening now. Might not happen in the foreseeable future.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#106

Post by malcolmgreaves »

abtinf wrote: post #62
wartywhoa23 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, really? I'd like to see your top 10.

Things that are worse than war, a wildly incomplete list, in no particular order: Pogroms; slavery; totalitarian dictatorship; theocracy; intentional mass starvation; mass organ harvesting; mass forced relocation; anarchy; failing to respond to unprovoked violence; restricting freedom instead of defeating the adversary.

What do you think happens in war? Clean fighting from side to side?

You really think the massive amounts of death and destruction aren’t top ten? What do you think happens to the local population when an invading force arrives? You should go and read about the rape of Nanking. And just read about what happened in wars before the modern era.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#107

Post by lopsotronic »

silvestrov wrote: post #15
kayo_20211030 wrote: post #2

A very insightful, and correct, piece. I'll quote in full the following, which I think gets to the heart of the matter. If you have no push, you can't apply pressure to the point. > The notion that amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logistics is frequently discussed in military academies and war colleges, yet it is rarely reflected in the Army’s budget requests or modernization priorities. The outdated conc…

One of the most interesting innovations in the Ukraine war is their internal market place for drones, letting each drone group decide which drones they want to procure and use in battle. It is not a top-down decision, production and supply as other armies use for their weapons logistics.

You also have to ponder how it looks when you remove the Chinese supply chain for all those commodity parts. Which will almost certainly be the case if we decide to punch that dance card.

Having a boundless cornucopia of servos and radios will affect the shape of your logistics/maintenance/fabrication complex.

That's not just a "Ukraine Problem" either.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#108

Post by Someone »

xp84 wrote: post #33
mcphage wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran will probably in a better place than they are now, strategically speaking How could that be? Are they getting an influx of $300 billion dollars or something?

It’s an odd declaration and maybe based on Rus/Ukraine. But Ukraine is doing better now than in the first week of the “Special Military Operation” due to having a lot of rich allies who have (in fits and starts) given them a lot of money and gear, and due to a Russia which has stretched its military and economy to the breaking point. By contrast, Iran’s only allies are its terrorist affiliates in Lebanon, Gaza, and t…

> Anyway, the US and Israel can keep degrading Iran’s military and “government” by dropping bombs (or better, drones) on them every week for a decade and it won’t really be a big deal for the former.

Can they? https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitio... says

“In the 39 days of the air and missile campaign before the ceasefire, U.S. forces heavily used the seven munitions in Table 1. For four of them, the United States may have expended more than half of the prewar inventory”

According to that article, they expended ballpark a third of their inventory of expensive weapons systems such as Patriots or Tomahawk missiles, each with a production lead time of at least 3 years.

If so, they would run out of those expensive weapons in three more months.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#109

Post by Varelion »

malfist wrote: post #11
bad_haircut72 wrote: post #6

When Russia invaded Ukraine, nobody (even the Ukranians) imagined that 5 years later they would have their own missiles hammering Russia 2500kms in the rear. Americans need to start accepting that a) the Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years and b) Iran will probably in a better place than they are now, strategically speaking.

> Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years The Russia/Ukraine war has a goal, to make Ukraine either part of Russia or a client state. What's the goal of the US/Iran war? So far it seems like the goal is to mostly return to the status quo prior to the war. I can't imagine that could continue 5 years because there's just not an objective. Of course, I could easily be mistaken.

> What's the goal of the US/Iran war?

Distract from the Epstein files. If you think anything else you:

    1 - Haven't been paying attention since 2008.

    2 - Are giving the administration way too much undeserved credit.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#110

Post by lenerdenator »

QuercusMax wrote: post #101
ApolloFortyNine wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well at this point the goal is for Iran to stop randomly blowing up innocent cargo ships. Or firing missiles at airports and cities in retaliation. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-war-live-us-says-iranian-...

If that's the goal then the US and Israel are doing their best to stop it from happening. Iran is responding to provocations. Stop provoking them, no more blown up ships.

Iran has shown a willingness to do these things through proxies regardless of anyone else before.

Furthermore, if they want to deal with the US or Israel, then they should target American or Israeli assets. Not third party ships manned by citizens of neutral nations who just want to get to port and remit cash to their families back home.

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