What's slowing down the AI buildout • Hacker News Board

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#21

Post by pitched » Thu, Jul 09, 2026, 6:09 AM UTC

walrus01 wrote: post #15

cobbzilla wrote: post #12

Cheap ubiquitous distributed power systems will change the world in many weird ways. Watch small modular nuclear offer home installation for ~$reasonable and getting cheaper every year. Fast forward 20 years from the advent of essentially infinite energy results in WWIII and a new “Great Detente” but only after all the assholes have wreaked all the havoc they can. There are dark days ahead but ultimately a brighter f…

I'd like to see a well reasoned plan to install small modular nuclear power at peoples houses that prevents the mentally ill, criminally reckless or terrorist minded people from cracking them open and obtaining access to the isotopes.

There isn’t much need to extract isotopes if you have an actual working reactor, is there? Just use that as-is to cause whatever damage.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#22

Post by defrost » Thu, Jul 09, 2026, 6:09 AM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #9

jqpabc123 wrote: post #2

‘the abundance of [AI] will be limited by the abundance of energy’. And the reason current US policy opposes clean, renewable energy is --- purely political.

Who is opposing renewable energy? Texas is projected to top California as the state with the largest amount of solar before the end of the Trump administration.

> Who is opposing renewable energy?

The current US admin:

Trump’s Multi-Pronged Attack on Renewable Energy https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?par...

but they are slowly being beaten back:

Trump admin abandons fight against wind energy as clean energy output surges - https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/06/trump-admin-abandons...

The Trumpian adventures in Iran have wrong footed his fossil fuel buddies and slowed his Don Quixote roll against giant scary windmills for now.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#23

Post by pitched » Thu, Jul 09, 2026, 6:12 AM UTC

9cb14c1ec0 wrote: post #19

Question for the experts: does the power crunch mean that AI hyperscalers will turn off previous generation GPU datacenters to free up power for their new Vera Rubin GPUs?

I think it’s more likely we’ll raise prices until demand lowers enough to match supply.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#24

Post by linkregister » Thu, Jul 09, 2026, 6:20 AM UTC

pitched wrote: post #23

9cb14c1ec0 wrote: post #19

Question for the experts: does the power crunch mean that AI hyperscalers will turn off previous generation GPU datacenters to free up power for their new Vera Rubin GPUs?

I think it’s more likely we’ll raise prices until demand lowers enough to match supply.

Open models enforce a floor on prices, unless overall compute is so constrained that those prices rise also.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#25

Post by walrus01 » Thu, Jul 09, 2026, 6:20 AM UTC

cobbzilla wrote: post #18

walrus01 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to see a well reasoned plan to install small modular nuclear power at peoples houses that prevents the mentally ill, criminally reckless or terrorist minded people from cracking them open and obtaining access to the isotopes.

have you never visited a rural neighborhood? or an affluent neighborhood? there are still many neighborhoods where people leave their doors unlocked because it is actually that safe. not every location is rife with criminal activity, and many are well protected.

Serious question, do you actually think that if you distribute millions of small nuclear reactors to homeowners geographically spread out around all of North America, 0.000% of them will be dangerously mentally ill, criminally reckless or inclined to terrorist like activity? Based on the frequency and number of mass shooter type incidents, (or like, David Koresh and the Branch Davidians) this would be a very naive view.

It doesn't require a criminally minded 3rd party coming onto someone's "safe" property to do something horrible with a sawzall and/or oxy-acetylene cutting torch.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#26

Post by yehoshuapw » Thu, Jul 09, 2026, 6:22 AM UTC

cobbzilla wrote: post #18

walrus01 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to see a well reasoned plan to install small modular nuclear power at peoples houses that prevents the mentally ill, criminally reckless or terrorist minded people from cracking them open and obtaining access to the isotopes.

have you never visited a rural neighborhood? or an affluent neighborhood? there are still many neighborhoods where people leave their doors unlocked because it is actually that safe. not every location is rife with criminal activity, and many are well protected.

While that is true, if there is something worthwhile enough in a far and safe location - it won't stay that way

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#27

Post by linkregister » Thu, Jul 09, 2026, 6:23 AM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #8

We should have been building more nuclear. We’re not going to upgrade civilization with windmills and putting on sweaters. Think of how much power we’ll need for millions of robots?

Unit economics for renewables coupled with storage are excellent. I agree we should reform nuclear regulation to allow new nuclear plants to pencil out. I disagree that we should discount the value of renewables.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#28

Post by cobbzilla » Thu, Jul 09, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC

walrus01 wrote: post #25

cobbzilla wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have you never visited a rural neighborhood? or an affluent neighborhood? there are still many neighborhoods where people leave their doors unlocked because it is actually that safe. not every location is rife with criminal activity, and many are well protected.

Serious question, do you actually think that if you distribute millions of small nuclear reactors to homeowners geographically spread out around all of North America, 0.000% of them will be dangerously mentally ill, criminally reckless or inclined to terrorist like activity? Based on the frequency and number of mass shooter type incidents, (or like, David Koresh and the Branch Davidians) this would be a very naive vi…

have you never heard of tamper-proof containers? mess with it, it’s useless and you go to jail for a long time?

Plus, they’re ubiquitous, you don’t know who has one, max damage is minimal even worst case — go fish!

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#29

Post by cobbzilla » Thu, Jul 09, 2026, 6:35 AM UTC

yehoshuapw wrote: post #26

cobbzilla wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have you never visited a rural neighborhood? or an affluent neighborhood? there are still many neighborhoods where people leave their doors unlocked because it is actually that safe. not every location is rife with criminal activity, and many are well protected.

While that is true, if there is something worthwhile enough in a far and safe location - it won't stay that way

It’s everywhere. It’s in the shed in your backyard. Nobody knows it’s there. Lots of people have them. It’s an appliance.

The worst thing an evildoer can do is blow up your own house and the few around it. and no one does that because you go to jail forever.

The worst thing you can do is let it melt down, which means it quietly shuts itself down.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#30

Post by walrus01 » Thu, Jul 09, 2026, 6:41 AM UTC

cobbzilla wrote: post #28

walrus01 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question, do you actually think that if you distribute millions of small nuclear reactors to homeowners geographically spread out around all of North America, 0.000% of them will be dangerously mentally ill, criminally reckless or inclined to terrorist like activity? Based on the frequency and number of mass shooter type incidents, (or like, David Koresh and the Branch Davidians) this would be a very naive vi…

have you never heard of tamper-proof containers? mess with it, it’s useless and you go to jail for a long time? Plus, they’re ubiquitous, you don’t know who has one, max damage is minimal even worst case — go fish!

That's a very optimistic view of humanity that I can't say I share. If you give a sufficiently motivated person enough isolation and time, they can cut into just about anything. And possibly deal with cleaning up the results of any internal tamperproof countermeasures. In a world that contains people like the Las Vegas mass shooter or those who conducted the 2015 attacks in Paris, handing out isotopes to the ordinary person seems like a recipe for disaster.

We live in a world where multiple people are killed every year by tipping vending machines over onto themselves and you propose to make nuclear reactors a mass market consumer good that goes in everyone's garage?