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GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

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Re: GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

#151
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It could keep it (disallow voting shares by law) and spend the dividends. And if the stock doesn't yield dividends?

For the general case: Redeem all stock collected as tax for ETF shares that track broad-market indices. ETFs almost always yield dividends. Toss whatever remains into a black box that no one is allowed to look at. When the government needs some revenue, pick something at random and sell it. It can also sell some ETF shares. The best part is this works for private companies too. If you work at a startup and get option…

> .... windfall

Odd that you refer to your efforts in a startup as delivering a windfall, as if you didn't earn/expect it, as if it's a lottery ticket.

Should we tax lottery earnings? Sure, why not, since we tax everything else.

But a startup is not a lottery ticket, and we are harming it, at least indirectly and likely directly, by taxing it before it even exists. Even just the paperwork to handle all of this is needless friction.

Re: GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

#152
post #54

Ouch. Two billion dollars. That could have been put into much better use, imagine being able to fund the Iran war for one more day.

It's funny how this kind of pricing works. A bag of weed captured is estimated at a thousand dollars. Ten movies pirated at twice that. We fire a JASSM in combat and it costs a lot of money. We fire it in training and it costs nothing. There is no financial impact estimated to require all elevators be big enough to turn a full length gurney around. A wealth tax will yield revenue for the next thirty years at 30 times…

> wealth tax

This isn't directed at your excellent comment, but about wealth tax in general (and the proposed California version specifically);

Should we tax the very people who are literally creating the future before they've even done so?

The progressive views on a wealth tax are an incredibly shocking blind spot, esp on this site, begun by those who are immersed in startups and believers that risking (venturing?) to pursue tech ventures can bring about a more excellent future for everyone, not just the founders. We dare to imagine a future that does not exist, and then we believe in it until it does.

If anything, we want to lubricate that path, not add friction. Hitting the VC's or founders who've made it hits everyone, all the way down the line.

Re: GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

#153
post #90

This isn't about radioactivity at all. It's about the millions of pounds of mercury used at the Y-12 plant at Oak Ridge,[1] resulting in a lot of low-level mercury contamination. [1] https://ehss.energy.gov/ohre/new/findingaids/epidemiologic/o...

I am quite confused about the mercury contamination being mentioned, to be honest.

There's a huge amount of mercury contamination at Y-12. The DoE wants to clean it up. The DoE asks for proposals for building an on-site plant capable of cleaning it up. And that's somehow... bad?

What's supposed to be the alternative here: shipping thousands of tonnes of contaminated dirt to an offsite processing plant? Dumping it all in the nearest lake? Burying it and pretending it doesn't exist?

There are dozens of examples of government agencies laser-focusing on one specific solution, but I just don't see how this case is bad enough that it warrants being explicitly mentioned as an example of the DoE not allowing for enough alternatives.

Re: GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Some people have to adjust their mortgage in order to pay property taxes. Most people pay property taxes out of their income. Most people get their income from wages and then pay the taxes with that. The people who are the target of a wealth tax get most of their income from investments and then to get money to pay a new tax would have to sell that proportion of the investments. It also doesn't really change anythi…

> Property tax to the extent that it's a tax on buildings/construction does precisely the opposite. Where land is more scarce the most efficient use is to build a high rise to maximize the amount of indoor living space per unit land, which is exactly the thing property tax taxes and thereby disincentivizes. Property tax breaks in my locale lead to empty lots and empty buildings, which is the least efficient use of la…

> Property tax breaks in my locale lead to empty lots and empty buildings, which is the least efficient use of land imaginable.

Property tax breaks create no such incentive. Consider that you own a lot in a high demand area. It may appreciate in value over time whether you develop it or not, but if you develop it immediately then you can rent it out and receive that value on top of any appreciation, so which is more profitable?

The policy that actually creates a strong incentive to underutilize land is rent control. Then the investor who wants the appreciation can't build something and rent it out in the meantime or when they go to sell the building later, its value will be lower because it's full of tenants paying below-market rents who won't leave until they die of old age. Whereas if they leave the lot vacant or the building empty then when it comes time to sell they can turn it into condos that sell for the full market rate. We would do well to pass a federal law banning rent control nationwide.

> Aside, I’m a fan of Georgism in theory.

Georgism is land value tax, not property tax. That's a completely different thing because it doesn't tax the buildings. But it also creates a weird incentive for developers, and correspondingly a huge perverse incentive for the government.

Because the obvious thing to do when there is LVT is to build multi-unit buildings, even if the surrounding area is low density and couldn't otherwise justify it. Which the government would then have the perverse incentive to suppress because they don't get any more LVT revenue but would have more residents consuming government services. And then you get the government suppressing efficient land use by e.g. mandating single-family zoning and large lots everywhere.

So to make it work you would have to deny the government the authority to impose zoning density restrictions or anything with an equivalent effect.

> I’m sure wealth managers are already devising strategies for reducing taxable wealth based on speculative laws and regulations. This shouldn’t be a reason not to proceed, but instead to put more resources to effective design.

The effective design looks like breaking up large corporations or taxing them directly (e.g. VAT) rather than taxing the holders of their shares.

And notice how the lobbyists frame this: VAT and corporate income tax are structurally similar. In both cases a tax is paid on the company's revenue minus its expenses; the expenses are then revenue to the supplier. The difference is what happens when the supply chain crosses a jurisdictional boundary. For corporate income tax, the tax is paid to the jurisdiction where the corporation reports profits, which it can structure its operations to choose and thereby avoid taxes. For VAT, the tax is paid to the jurisdiction where the corporation's customers are, which multinational corporations can't easily change. Their lobbyists then come up with nonsense arguments claiming that VAT is regressive but corporate income tax isn't, even though for a domestic supply chain they have the same effect and for an international supply chain it's corporate income tax that allows rich corporations owned by billionaires to have a tax advantage over small businesses owned by middle class domestic proprietors.

By contrast, there is no real effective design for a wealth tax because the problems with it are reality problems rather than design problems. People can enter into arbitrarily complicated contracts involving high uncertainty or private information or foreign parties, and regularly do, that the government has no way to accurately value. But as soon as they inaccurately value anything it becomes a tax shelter.

Re: GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Property tax breaks in my locale lead to empty lots and empty buildings, which is the least efficient use of land imaginable. Could you clarify what your locales property taxes are exactly? I'm trying to figure out whether you and Mouse are using the term the same way, in particular, tax on land or tax on buildings or both. (FWIW Wikipedia defines it as both.) It would also be very important to clarify how the tax…

It’s both in my locale, land and improvements. There’s a tax break for vacant commercial space, which leads to commercial RE holding companies to simply speculate on commercial RE and sit on vacant properties. They have such little incentive to find a tenant or even sell that commercial properties sit empty for years, despite plenty of prospective tenants taking tours. I’m on an HOA board in a building with commercia…

They passed a rule waiving taxes on commercial real estate but only if it's empty? That's one of those "any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice" polices.

Re: GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

#156
post #137
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the utility of wealth is not linear. a billionaire getting $100 probably has no use for it and they wont notice either way. but a homeless person getting $100 makes a big difference for them no matter if they use it to buy new clothes and apply for a job or spend it all on liquor. redistribution is actually good by itself because it maximizes the total wellbeing of society. all the negative effects on economic output…

Marginal utility tends to diminish as you consume more of a good, but you can't compare utility between individuals. Utility is ordinal, has no common scale and is subjective. It doesn't make sense to try and claim that redistribution will always maximize the total wellbeing of society.

I agree: there is no precise, objective way to compare the utility of two arbitrary wealth distributions, and redistribution does not always maximize the total well-being of society.

Yet I assert it's useful to ask if the status quo—one person has >$1T and many others don't have enough for basic needs like shelter, medicine, and food—is optimal or if it'd be better to redistribute some of this.

* We don't need the ability to quantify or rank all wealth distributions, just compare some of immediate relevance. That's much easier, in the same way that even though the halting problem is undecidable, we can prove some realistic program A will halt and some realistic program B may not.

* We don't need objectivity. Democracies decide many subjective things by majority vote (sometimes 2/3rds or whatever), directly or through representatives. I don't always agree with the outcome, but it's the system we have here in the US/California, and I assert it's better than a dictatorship or requiring 100% consensus to take any action.

Re: GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A wealth tax will yield revenue for the next thirty years at 30 times what it will yield this year. Isn't this the opposite of how a wealth tax works? The annual turnover for e.g. Apple stock is ~0.4%, so a 0.8%/year wealth tax would triple the number of sellers without adding any new buyers. The negative effect on the price is outsized because most people hold long-term rather than buying or selling in any given y…

> The annual turnover for e.g. Apple stock is ~0.4%, so a 0.8%/year wealth tax would triple the number of sellers without adding any new buyers. Is that assuming the tax money is going into the void? I agree it might force roughly 0.8% of shares to be sold in a given year. But as to not adding any new buyers: no one's being forced to buy stock in the same way, but shouldn't someone be getting the money and potentiall…

> Is that assuming the tax money is going into the void?

It assumes that it's going somewhere else, which, if it wasn't, would cause it to have no purpose or effect.

> shouldn't someone be getting the money and potentially using it to buy Apple stock?

Going from "predominantly what happens" to "it's theoretically possible occasionally" is a question of magnitude rather than direction.

> Most of them may waste it on silly things like food and rent, but some might end up with a surplus and become investors.

Or their spending it on food and rent results in an increase in rents, even for the people who didn't get any, which rents go in part to foreign investors who remove it from the jurisdiction, and then domestic people have even less to invest than before.

Compare this to the thing where you e.g. relax zoning rules to reduce housing scarcity so that rents come down and then domestic people have that money to invest.

> Same effect if say the income tax is lowered to make the wealth tax revenue-neutral.

Which is to say, same problem -- you've now created a preference for spending rather than saving/investing while increasing your reliance on the taxation of saving/investing.

> It's hard to for me to imagine a way to spend taxes that doesn't help someone. Even if the money is used on war—a net destruction of value and lives—there are some people selling missiles better off a result.

Things have both opportunity costs and externalities. If you take a billion dollars from a company building grid battery storage whose investors would will the profits to a malaria charity then the grid burns more fossil fuels, consumers pay more for electricity, more people get malaria, the pointless war kills innocent people, those populations get pissed off and commit acts of terrorism, and the defense contractor gets a billion dollars (this is supposed to be the benefit) which it uses to bribe the government to increase the amount of bombings. This is obviously a massive overall net loss and would be better off not happening notwithstanding that the defense contractor likes it.

Re: GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

#158
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although the argument does look fundamentally reasonable, I think its biggest weakness is it doesn't make an attempt to prioritise - yes taxes always make someone better off. So does wealth. A decision has to be made. Which is more valuable? We've got a highly reliable and effective system for working that out (aka the free market economy) and no alternative in 2nd place that doesn't typically lead to mass starvation…

> The people behind wealth taxes generally handwave explaining how their system will be better at allocating than the people who make a living of allocating wealth effectively because it is all just obvious that it doesn't need to be justified. Poor people will get more money if rich people have less, duh, QED. Even your straw man version of this argument is pretty convincing to me alongside graphs showing the extent…

> This is more a disagreement of values than facts, I think.

It's a disagreement over policy. Increasing inequality is bad, the question is what's the best way to do something about it? There are many alternatives with better characteristics than a wealth tax, like antitrust enforcement to break up concentrated industries and lower corporate profits through increased competition, zoning reform to reduce housing costs so that ordinary people keep more of what they earn instead of paying it to banks or landlords, tax reform to remove existing advantages in the tax code for huge multinational corporations over domestic small businesses owned by ordinary people, etc.

> High marginal income taxes (it was 91% in 1963, 70% until 1981, there's your compelling case where they turned out to be right, inequality was not growing then like it is now)

The high marginal rates in the mid-20th century were fake. The tax code at the time had so many loopholes that nobody really paid them. When the rates were lowered in the 1980s, many of the loopholes were closed at the same time, resulting in the "federal receipts as a percent of GDP" chart looking like this:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S

Which is to say, you'd have trouble using that chart to even guess when it changed.

Re: GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

#159
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We've got a highly reliable and effective system for working that out (aka the free market economy) and no alternative in 2nd place that doesn't typically lead to mass starvation because someone underestimated how much food was needed. This is an absolutely wild comparison. The choice is not "everything is purely market forces" vs "everything is centrally planned". We have all kinds of implementations across the wo…

Besides, modern market forces are central planning. Bezos central plans. So does Musk. So does whoever is in charge of Microsoft right now. To avoid this you need a wide variety of small to medium sized businesses instead of a few large ones. A wealth tax may help this happen.

What budget incentive does a wealth tax create for Congress when considering a non-tax policy that would reduce the wealth of billionaires by allowing more small and medium businesses to compete with them in their industries?

Re: GAO: DOE Is Prematurely Excluding Less Expensive Options for Nuclear Cleanup

#160
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although the argument does look fundamentally reasonable, I think its biggest weakness is it doesn't make an attempt to prioritise - yes taxes always make someone better off. So does wealth. A decision has to be made. Which is more valuable? We've got a highly reliable and effective system for working that out (aka the free market economy) and no alternative in 2nd place that doesn't typically lead to mass starvation…

> The people behind wealth taxes generally handwave explaining how their system will be better at allocating than the people who make a living of allocating wealth effectively because it is all just obvious that it doesn't need to be justified. Poor people will get more money if rich people have less, duh, QED. Even your straw man version of this argument is pretty convincing to me alongside graphs showing the extent…

> Even your straw man version of this argument is pretty convincing to me...

Wouldn't that make it not a straw man argument? It isn't an argument as pointing out an assumption that voting or committee can be better at allocating resources than a free market. It isn't a very well grounded one and it looks wrong when presented on its own but there isn't much I can do about that. It is popular and people find it convincing.

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