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The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

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Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#51

Post by adastra22 »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #21
adastra22 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is my industry I know it well, apparently much better than these bozos. SpaceX launch is only “unprofitable” only in the accounting sense because they reinvest their profits into Starship. Their actual profit margin for launch of F9 is 62% - 80% depending on configuration. That is a margin unheard of in aerospace. There is literally no competition worth speaking of, and nobody to provide downward price pressure.…

China and other competitors have other ideas, even if you're not aware of them. When your whole pitch is that you're commoditising a technology, don't be surprised when you get a commoditised market.

China (and others, e.g. Blue Origin and Rocket Lab) are rushing to catch up to where SoaceX was 10 years ago. They are moving faster than anyone in aerospace has ever moved before, but SpaceX is still accelerating faster than that. By the time they catch up, the game will have again changed.

SpaceX and NVIDIA share this trait. They out-innovate, and know only one speed: the speed of light. The tortoise can only beat the hare if the hare takes a nap, and nobody is napping at SpaceX.

I’m not a fanboy. I have criticisms of SpaceX. But you are pattern matching to the common story of startups getting complacent and being surpassed by up-comers in China and elsewhere. But the innovators dilemma only applies if the innovator stops innovating. Two decades on, SoaceX is still innovating as much as they always have.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#52

Post by adastra22 »

ben_w wrote: post #19
adastra22 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is my industry I know it well, apparently much better than these bozos. SpaceX launch is only “unprofitable” only in the accounting sense because they reinvest their profits into Starship. Their actual profit margin for launch of F9 is 62% - 80% depending on configuration. That is a margin unheard of in aerospace. There is literally no competition worth speaking of, and nobody to provide downward price pressure.…

> And if you think, as Morgan Stanley seems to, that the only money to be made in space is selling launch of earth orbiting satellites, you’re going to miss out on the boom that is going to make the first quadrillionaire. I was with you up to this point. Quadrillionaire? Seriously? On species-wide economy of 0.1Q/year? On a timescale short enough that SpaceX remains a coherent entity and you don't have to account for…

The material wealth of the Earth is only a small, small fraction of the accessible material in the inner solar system, let alone the universe.

Starship fundamentally changes the game in ways people aren’t paying attention to because it pattern matches to sci-fi. But the economics are real: power and material far beyond what is available on Earth, on many cases at lower marginal price than terrestrial sources, and 1000x to 100000x reserves.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#53

Post by adastra22 »

close04 wrote: post #31
adastra22 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is my industry I know it well, apparently much better than these bozos. SpaceX launch is only “unprofitable” only in the accounting sense because they reinvest their profits into Starship. Their actual profit margin for launch of F9 is 62% - 80% depending on configuration. That is a margin unheard of in aerospace. There is literally no competition worth speaking of, and nobody to provide downward price pressure.…

> This is my industry I know it well How far ahead is SpaceX compared to the competition, a decade? More? Less? Is the gap closing or growing? > Their actual profit margin for launch of F9 is 62% - 80% depending on configuration. That is a margin unheard of in aerospace. Do you expect they maintain these margins on launch and whatever services they deliver from space as that gap is closing? Is their first mover advan…

The rest of the industry is about 10 years beyond SpaceX. But note that they are where SpaceX was a decade ago, which is not the same thing as “in 10 years they will catch up.” The gap is getting larger year by year, not smaller.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#55

Post by HeavyStorm »

ben_w wrote: post #7

My draft blog post about all the things that are up with space data centres keeps getting bigger and bigger. "The other half of the MS model is data centres. “Orbital compute deployments” start in 2028, reach cost parity with their earthbound equivalents by 2031, and put 364GW of rigs in space by 2040." With 25% efficient cells, at 500 km altitude, in a terminator-tracing SSO, this is enough to occupy a *contiguous*…

I'm not very informed on SpaceX plans, but one thing I think people gloss over is how much maintenance a data center requires. Parts fail, computers get stuck on crash loops, etc. A space data center would need workers - computer people, not astronauts - and a constant supply of parts tob replace hardware. Whoever wrote this proposal doesn't understand neither space nor data centers.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#56

Post by XorNot »

zpeti wrote: post #29
XorNot wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There just isn't that much demand for space. Space is cool to nerds like me, but what do I really need from it? I've got all the navigation satellites I could want (which I don't pay for) and the best satellite imagery I use is still hyperspectral airborne imagery. Now, of course that's not the full story but the use cases get rather specific beyond that: the launch market just isn't actually very big (afaik $30 bill…

Without doing a google search - optical fibers factories and pharma factories can deliver higher quality products when built in space. And I bet there are hundreds of other examples. Just because launch costs were high and these weren't viable before, doesn't mean they won't be viable now.

Fiber optic are currently so cheap that they are being used in expendable, single use applications in the Russia/Ukraine war in spools of 50+km.

You're talking about achieving highly marginal gains in product quality at the expense of having to launch into space literally every single part of the production process and recover it from space.

Which includes things like "ruggedizing what you launch so it can survive the launch" and "also ruggedizing it to survive the landing".

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#57

Post by small_model »

SideQuark wrote: post #48
small_model wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their lead is insurmountable, might bleed 1/2% to china but they own launch market and will do for the next century.

You’re claiming in 10 years they made something others won’t for another century? This has no historical precedent. China is going to eat them, just like they ate Teslas insurmountable lead in a few short years.

Whats the best selling car in the world? Model Y at 4x the price of number 2. So nope, your claim died on first hurdle. Try harder

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#58

Post by padjo »

ghtbircshotbe wrote: post #54

I have a hard time imagining how spx stock will drop to a reasonable price. You have to be a true believer at its current valuation, so who is going to sell? Maybe if enough insiders or stock options start selling it will drop.

Slowly at first, then quickly.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#59

Post by ben_w »

adastra22 wrote: post #51
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China and other competitors have other ideas, even if you're not aware of them. When your whole pitch is that you're commoditising a technology, don't be surprised when you get a commoditised market.

China (and others, e.g. Blue Origin and Rocket Lab) are rushing to catch up to where SoaceX was 10 years ago. They are moving faster than anyone in aerospace has ever moved before, but SpaceX is still accelerating faster than that. By the time they catch up, the game will have again changed. SpaceX and NVIDIA share this trait. They out-innovate, and know only one speed: the speed of light. The tortoise can only beat…

> They are moving faster than anyone in aerospace has ever moved before, but SpaceX is still accelerating faster than that. By the time they catch up, the game will have again changed.

That was a believable pitch up to around 2020 or so.

In 2018 they announced they were going to send a private crewed mission around the moon in 2023. Now we have the benefit of hindsight, it's 2026 and the vessel they were going to use has not yet had one circularised orbit.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but at this point Starship development is currently going slower than both the historical analogs, the Saturn V and the Space Shuttle.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#60

Post by ben_w »

small_model wrote: post #57
SideQuark wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re claiming in 10 years they made something others won’t for another century? This has no historical precedent. China is going to eat them, just like they ate Teslas insurmountable lead in a few short years.

Whats the best selling car in the world? Model Y at 4x the price of number 2. So nope, your claim died on first hurdle. Try harder

No, the best selling car in the world is the Toyota RAV4: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4

The best selling EV brand in the world is BYD: https://cleantechnica.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-03...

The best selling EV model in the world is the Model Y.

Saying "Oh but the Model Y" is like how when the original iMac came out, Apple turned out to be selling the single most popular model of retail PC in the US despite Apple also having 3% of the world market. Putting a lot of wood behind few arrows does make those arrows look bigger.

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