Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've heard it said that Oracle doesn't have customers. They have hostages.
Still, the clock is ticking. I don't know of any "new" company that would use Oracle instead of e.g. Postgres or would migrate to it. That's probably why they're pretty desperate to jump onto something new before the old source of income fizzles out.
GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
461–470 of 495 posts
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#462Earlier quoted context omitted.
Open source is currently entirely reliant on Chinese models. So basically EU will be left behind unless we start doing something about it now. imo Mistral isn't enough by itself.
Pretty sure there would be a number of EU states who'd happily pump some money in if the EU were to mandate the ECB to (incentivise intermediary banks to) buy their corresponding long dated sovereign debt cheaply to fund it.
I mean we can barely get EU to host with EU providers. Nevermind something so speculative.
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#463I'll agree but from the other direction. AI continues to absorb my job as a senior systems software engineer (c/c++) and after a couple months I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex. I have no idea what people are doing to burn so many tokens but for me this is laughably cheap and every day I discover new capabilities. I don't care if costs go up or down, it's so cheap for what I get that I…
It seems like you're basing your spend on the subsidized consumer subscriptions. The equivalent API costs for these subscriptions is usually 12-20x. Any overages (hourly/weekly/model) on these plans gets billed at rack API costs. Its not practical to expect these subsidies to last for very long.
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#464Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because we pay retail consumer prices (subscriptions). Those same tokens cost many thousands on enterprise billing:/
What makes you say that the parent you’re replying to uses a consumer subscription? Sounds to me like he’s using it for work.
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#465> Of course, this was a hugely poor read of where the costs actually lie in AI. Training - while no doubt capex intensive - is a fixed, up-front cost. You spend hundreds of millions to train a model, then you are "done". I don't understand this point that people make. If you're consistently needing[0] to train new models and the cost of training relative to the % improvement seems to go higher, isn't this just a cons…
Anthropic has essentially trained one big model for more than one year. From Opus 4 to 4.8 all improvements were in RL and post training. Expensive, but not as intensive.
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#466Earlier quoted context omitted.
What makes you say that the parent you’re replying to uses a consumer subscription? Sounds to me like he’s using it for work.
Because if this person was paying enterprise for tokens, they: 1. wouldn't write stuff like "I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex" 2. wouldn't think tokens are cheap
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#467I'll agree but from the other direction. AI continues to absorb my job as a senior systems software engineer (c/c++) and after a couple months I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex. I have no idea what people are doing to burn so many tokens but for me this is laughably cheap and every day I discover new capabilities. I don't care if costs go up or down, it's so cheap for what I get that I…
My guess is that they never close sessions, I always restart sessions after a few messages to clean context
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#468I'll agree but from the other direction. AI continues to absorb my job as a senior systems software engineer (c/c++) and after a couple months I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex. I have no idea what people are doing to burn so many tokens but for me this is laughably cheap and every day I discover new capabilities. I don't care if costs go up or down, it's so cheap for what I get that I…
5.6?
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#469Earlier quoted context omitted.
What you’re failing to understand is that meta is ultimately a US company. If meta unveils a powerful frontier model tomorrow and US impose a ban of its exports, regardless of how many research, data centres, meta has in EU, they will restrict access to the model for EU citizens, same way Anthropic did. Regarding the open weights, I don’t see meta doing that for their future models, especially once they have their ow…
meta researchers from eu will create new company and build model using knowledge they have.
Also meta could just take the best mind in EU research centres to US with millions of dollars as yearly payments
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#470Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is not about intellectual advantage, but about capabilities as well. Assuming that Europe would get all the knowledge they need on the cutting edge technology on how to train a frontier model (which they won't because US and China would guard this as national secrets), who is going to setup infrastructure to train the model? Who is building the data centers (multi-year project) and who is going to build the energy…
EU already has supercomputers and data centers. Some examples: https://www.eurohpc-ju.europa.eu/supercomputers/our-supercom... The goal is to triple the number of data centers over the next years. It is not like there is nothing going on...