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GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

martinalderson.com

461–470 of 495 posts

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard it said that Oracle doesn't have customers. They have hostages.

Still, the clock is ticking. I don't know of any "new" company that would use Oracle instead of e.g. Postgres or would migrate to it. That's probably why they're pretty desperate to jump onto something new before the old source of income fizzles out.

My bet is that in some industries like banking, PG share is minuscule.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Open source is currently entirely reliant on Chinese models. So basically EU will be left behind unless we start doing something about it now. imo Mistral isn't enough by itself.

Pretty sure there would be a number of EU states who'd happily pump some money in if the EU were to mandate the ECB to (incentivise intermediary banks to) buy their corresponding long dated sovereign debt cheaply to fund it.

Perhaps, but in the same breath, from the limited things I've seen and heard, they're extremely reluctant to take any risk with these types of funding schemes when disbursing, so unless it's tried and tested it's not getting off the ground i.e. it's unlikely to lead anywhere considering current state of market.

I mean we can barely get EU to host with EU providers. Nevermind something so speculative.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#463

I'll agree but from the other direction. AI continues to absorb my job as a senior systems software engineer (c/c++) and after a couple months I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex. I have no idea what people are doing to burn so many tokens but for me this is laughably cheap and every day I discover new capabilities. I don't care if costs go up or down, it's so cheap for what I get that I…

It seems like you're basing your spend on the subsidized consumer subscriptions. The equivalent API costs for these subscriptions is usually 12-20x. Any overages (hourly/weekly/model) on these plans gets billed at rack API costs. Its not practical to expect these subsidies to last for very long.

My numbers come from the spend my company makes using our corporate plan. Not sure what the pricing is relative to any other plan. It's definitely not the consumer rate as we're a pretty big shop burning a lot of tokens as a whole.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we pay retail consumer prices (subscriptions). Those same tokens cost many thousands on enterprise billing:/

What makes you say that the parent you’re replying to uses a consumer subscription? Sounds to me like he’s using it for work.

Correct. This is not a consumer plan.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#465

> Of course, this was a hugely poor read of where the costs actually lie in AI. Training - while no doubt capex intensive - is a fixed, up-front cost. You spend hundreds of millions to train a model, then you are "done". I don't understand this point that people make. If you're consistently needing[0] to train new models and the cost of training relative to the % improvement seems to go higher, isn't this just a cons…

Anthropic has essentially trained one big model for more than one year. From Opus 4 to 4.8 all improvements were in RL and post training. Expensive, but not as intensive.

Is Fable/Mythos a new generation then?

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you say that the parent you’re replying to uses a consumer subscription? Sounds to me like he’s using it for work.

Because if this person was paying enterprise for tokens, they: 1. wouldn't write stuff like "I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex" 2. wouldn't think tokens are cheap

Not correct. I'm assuming it's an enterprise plan. I have no idea what deal my company has worked out with OpenAI but I do not yet have a personal account (but soon will when I have the time to spin up proxmox on my compute brick that's been gathering dust since last year).

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#467

I'll agree but from the other direction. AI continues to absorb my job as a senior systems software engineer (c/c++) and after a couple months I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex. I have no idea what people are doing to burn so many tokens but for me this is laughably cheap and every day I discover new capabilities. I don't care if costs go up or down, it's so cheap for what I get that I…

My guess is that they never close sessions, I always restart sessions after a few messages to clean context

I close out after a task is complete. I rarely want the previous context to feed into the next task.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#468
post #399

I'll agree but from the other direction. AI continues to absorb my job as a senior systems software engineer (c/c++) and after a couple months I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex. I have no idea what people are doing to burn so many tokens but for me this is laughably cheap and every day I discover new capabilities. I don't care if costs go up or down, it's so cheap for what I get that I…

5.6?

Yeah I just switched to 5.6-sol I think?

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you’re failing to understand is that meta is ultimately a US company. If meta unveils a powerful frontier model tomorrow and US impose a ban of its exports, regardless of how many research, data centres, meta has in EU, they will restrict access to the model for EU citizens, same way Anthropic did. Regarding the open weights, I don’t see meta doing that for their future models, especially once they have their ow…

meta researchers from eu will create new company and build model using knowledge they have.

In an imaginary world yes. Just because they know how, doesn’t mean that they can. It’s not like you can code a new model, you need compute power to train it, which they don’t have in EU.

Also meta could just take the best mind in EU research centres to US with millions of dollars as yearly payments

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not about intellectual advantage, but about capabilities as well. Assuming that Europe would get all the knowledge they need on the cutting edge technology on how to train a frontier model (which they won't because US and China would guard this as national secrets), who is going to setup infrastructure to train the model? Who is building the data centers (multi-year project) and who is going to build the energy…

EU already has supercomputers and data centers. Some examples: https://www.eurohpc-ju.europa.eu/supercomputers/our-supercom... The goal is to triple the number of data centers over the next years. It is not like there is nothing going on...

Again, super computers are not used to train frontier models. Please do your own research before blobbing just random links. By the time they triple those data centres the AI race is already lost
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