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How Kalshi Infects the News

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Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#201
post #67

Over the last 2+ decades gambling has increased massively. By "gambling" I include sports betting, prediction markets, online casinos and crypto (including NFTs). Yes, I'm including crypto under gambling. When ordinary people buy crypto it's mostly because they saw the stratospheric rise of Bitcoin, don't really understand why and don't want to miss out on the next Bitcoin.. Straight up. That's gambling. But why? Eas…

It's complicated. If you go put some dollars down on a prediction, the median person you're in it with doesn't have much evidence to support their position and is basically gambling. The median dollar you're up against is coming from some rich guy with knowledge somewhere between "airmchair expert in this topic" and "outright insider trading." And so it's a situation where for some people it isn't gambling at all; it even generates some useful info accessible to everyone; and it's easy not to notice that only a handful of rich people really benefit, because it feels like anyone "can win." The truth is kind of counterintuitive.

Also, having expert knowledge and then making money off of other people thinking they might have it and being wrong... is a choice.

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#202
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here at least I believe the gambling laws have changed. Most gas stations I go into now have "gaming" machines and there's always some soul sitting at them at any time of day. I'm mostly on team let-people-do-what-they-want-even-if-it's-bad-for-them but it's disheartening to watch a dad sitting there totally sucked into it and just ignoring their kid in a stroller behind them.

I think the limitation to team "let-people-do-what-they-want-even-if-it's-bad-for-them" is that it's rooted in outdated assumptions about what free will and coercion look like. Broadly speaking, libertarian notions of negative freedom assume a model of coercion with a very small footprint, primarily the threat of immanent physical violence. Similarly, it sees the exercise of free will as a binary action, rather than…

It's a really good point.

"It's not a war on drugs, it's a war on personal freedom. Always remember that" is all well and good but pretending 1960s ditch weed and fentanyl are a single problem with a common prescription either way is misguided.

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