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GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

martinalderson.com

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Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#421

Post by WarmWash »

Lalabadie wrote: post #416
WarmWash wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's five year plan is whatever Xi wants whenever he wants it. It's just a formal guideline, not a law or constitution people can sue the CCP over. Also, even if China decides it doesn't want to keep the crown jewels of productivity close to home, the US will ban their import. Maybe XzeRo_337 will be torrenting weights and have a VPN to access foreign providers, but Timmy and Ashley are just going to pay for their…

You're applying US cultural logic to Chinese bureaucracy

China is an authoritarian state with a single leader who has unilateral uncontested control for life.

China has no real bureaucracy (or any other structure for that matter) because at the end of the day, it's one guy who can do whatever he wants whenever he wants. For commoners and officials there is this faux bureaucracy, but for the elite at the top making decisions, there is zero.

If Xi doesn't want models exported, he's not having a legal delegation go to the supreme court of China to fight for his ruling. It just happens, regardless of whatever anyone else or any piece of paper in the country says, and there is zero recourse anyone who doesn't like it can pursue.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#423

Post by _def »

pixlmint wrote: post #199

Last month, I cancelled my Claude Pro subscription and instead used those 20$ to purchase Openrouter Credits. Most of my knowledge-seeking questions can be answered by Gemma4, for basic code editing, Qwen3.6 27b is enough, and for really difficult tasks, GLM5.2 doesn't leave me hanging. I'm by no means a heavy AI user, so I'm even saving money going the API Credit route and relying on the smallest possible model depe…

I literally burned through 20USD in a couple of hours on openrouter with deepseek v4 pro and opencode tasks - i'm sure i did something wrong

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#424

Post by sajithdilshan »

nightski wrote: post #402
sajithdilshan wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does meta has an AI training data center in EU? They can just operate and provide normal access to their services, just block AI access. This is already happening, apple would not release new Siri in EU (granted it's due to a regulation clash) but this would be a testing point. If Europeans are still paying the same prices for sub par services/products to their American counter parts, it's win-win situation for those…

Meta's FAIR has several R&D offices in the EU, yes. So you are saying their labs can conduct R&D on models in the EU, potentially even train them there, they just can't have production LLM inference serving or release the model weights? I'm just not seeing it. A not-insignificant portion of the AI/ML research community is in the EU.

What you’re failing to understand is that meta is ultimately a US company. If meta unveils a powerful frontier model tomorrow and US impose a ban of its exports, regardless of how many research, data centres, meta has in EU, they will restrict access to the model for EU citizens, same way Anthropic did.

Regarding the open weights, I don’t see meta doing that for their future models, especially once they have their own frontier models. Open weight models are kinda marketing strategy where they use it as a bait and switch. A lot of Chinese companies became popular with their open wight models and once they build that reputation they have no incentive to keep on releasing new open weighted models

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#425

Post by Yizahi »

skeptic_ai wrote: post #156
mgambati wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The inertia is legal and financial. People are paying Anthropic through AWS accounts because the simple reason of not dealing making new contract and legal agreements is enough of reason of the inertia. But, eventually, I’m quite sure that AWS will also provide open models with those contracts without any inertia. Copilot is already offering Kimi. My company has a deal with Devin and they provide new models all the t…

Also they pay for legal liability of code produced

Maybe for a fantasy of legal liability of output produced. I haven't heard of any LLM corpo being held liable for any output they generate. Even NYT lawsuit is going nowhere for 3 years in courts already, despite being the most grounded.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#426

Post by zuzululu »

kristianp wrote: post #213
zuzululu wrote: post #34

i would use glm 5.2 if the servers weren't in china i mean i guess my employers wouldn't know the difference but i'd like to play it safe and keep everything in america

If you look at https://openrouter.ai/z-ai/glm-5.2#providers there's about 28 providers, including z.ai and Alibaba. Most outside of China. I've never seen so many providers for a model on there before, glm 5.2 is popular.

thanks I see cloudflare has it. I will give glm 5.2 a try

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#427

Post by khimaros »

NostraDavid wrote: post #299
pixlmint wrote: post #199

Last month, I cancelled my Claude Pro subscription and instead used those 20$ to purchase Openrouter Credits. Most of my knowledge-seeking questions can be answered by Gemma4, for basic code editing, Qwen3.6 27b is enough, and for really difficult tasks, GLM5.2 doesn't leave me hanging. I'm by no means a heavy AI user, so I'm even saving money going the API Credit route and relying on the smallest possible model depe…

What do you use as interface to OpenRouter? I, too, am looking into using an API to see if I can reduce costs (I use OpenAI + Github Copilot, currently). TensorX instead of OpenRouter (because it's in Europe, and EURouter wanted 15% more money from me :P), but I'm not sure if I want to change a configuration in vscode every time I want to switch the model in the Claude extension (and having an API key in my settings…

pi.dev

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#428

Post by james2doyle »

_def wrote: post #423
pixlmint wrote: post #199

Last month, I cancelled my Claude Pro subscription and instead used those 20$ to purchase Openrouter Credits. Most of my knowledge-seeking questions can be answered by Gemma4, for basic code editing, Qwen3.6 27b is enough, and for really difficult tasks, GLM5.2 doesn't leave me hanging. I'm by no means a heavy AI user, so I'm even saving money going the API Credit route and relying on the smallest possible model depe…

I literally burned through 20USD in a couple of hours on openrouter with deepseek v4 pro and opencode tasks - i'm sure i did something wrong

Yeah sounds like maybe you got stuck in a loop? If you’re a big Deepseek fan, check out their Codewhale harness. It is actually really slick and you can use your OpenRouter account with it.

You can use any model you want but it is really tailored to work well with the Deepseek duo

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#429

Post by mynameisbilly »

jeremyloy_wt wrote: post #342
throwawayffffas wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asking claude to implement a single feature that takes under 30 minutes consumes 10-30 dollars of tokens in api costs.

And if the engineer bills for $100/hr or more, the trade off is worth it

Why is everyone still operating under the assumption the current token costs will remain so heavily subsidized? We could see $200-400/hr in token costs once these companies need to turn a profit

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#430

Post by guiriduro »

KoolKat23 wrote: post #392
myrmidon wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is pure speculation at this point tbh. You could just as well read the european approach as a bet that frontier models will be unable to keep a significant edge over open competition (and thus not worth throwing subsidies at, because any economic advantage is fleeting at best). Looking at the data and related past experience, this looks like a pretty solid bet (despite the "risk" being hard to quantify).

Open source is currently entirely reliant on Chinese models. So basically EU will be left behind unless we start doing something about it now. imo Mistral isn't enough by itself.

Pretty sure there would be a number of EU states who'd happily pump some money in if the EU were to mandate the ECB to (incentivise intermediary banks to) buy their corresponding long dated sovereign debt cheaply to fund it.
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