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GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

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Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#371

Post by etcimon »

Xunjin wrote: post #356
pocksuppet wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without the indecisive government action that was taken, millions more people would have died, but the economy would have done better. With decisive government action (see New Zealand), millions less people would have died, and the economy would have done better.

This argument is so flawed in many ways, economies are built by people for people. Extrapolate the numbers, let's say in the COVID Pandemic a country, take USA as example, has 10% percentage of their population killed by it, would that be better to the economy?

There's multiple ways to look at the economy, the raw exchange of dollar currency in a debt chase (shit I need to run faster & pay down this stuff!), there's the productivity of industrial output (shit we need to sell more junk and useless crap!), and there's the stock and productivity in optimal life cycles (Damn, that Nokia is a tank!)

If 10% of the population went away, it would affect 1 & 2, but in any true practical lens, there's a ton of cheap empty houses, while on the other hand building repairable stuff that lasts or enough cheaply is where economies move to more complex technologies by saving time and effort in useless endeavour of debt chases or consumption-oriented wasteful productivity

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#372

Post by sajithdilshan »

myrmidon wrote: post #367
alecco wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48816025 And EU leadership completely destroyed Europe's future by betting on depending on US and Chinese models. https://pleias.ai/blog/fable-eu

This is pure speculation at this point tbh. You could just as well read the european approach as a bet that frontier models will be unable to keep a significant edge over open competition (and thus not worth throwing subsidies at, because any economic advantage is fleeting at best). Looking at the data and related past experience, this looks like a pretty solid bet (despite the "risk" being hard to quantify).

> You could just as well read the european approach as a bet that frontier models will be unable to keep a significant edge over open competition

And that's a bet they will lose 100%. Once the Chinese starts imposing export bans/controlling the access to their models, Europe would be at the mercy of US/China to allow them access or just rely on miserable mistral

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#373

Post by Sevii »

mikae1 wrote: post #196
arcanemachiner wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4.7 Flash is a small model that's almost a year old, which is ancient. And yes, your dinky GPU will not run anything worthwhile. Just spend $5 on OpenCode Go and give GLM 5.2 a shot if you have the time. It's not quite as good as Opus, but it's more than good enough for many tasks.

> Just spend $5 on OpenCode Go $5 the first month , then price is doubled.

With OpenRouter you can pay flat rate and try nearly any model on the market.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#374

Post by Certhas »

cpursley wrote: post #252
nodja wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I don't see any historical analogues. The losers are quickly forgotten. Palm, Blackberry, AOL, MySpace. Yahoo, etc. Software gets replaced all the time too, you even listed one and didn't realize. 15 years ago you'd call office irreplaceable, now you have to add gsuite to the mix, in 15 years there might be others. I know people that have never had office installed on their PC and use spreadsheets daily. > It s…

Because nobody’s paying for tokens, they’re paying for monthly plans and right now those are still a better bargain.

Individuals, sure. For enterprise you can't get monthly plans. You have to pay per token.

It's a bit like saying "nobody pays for Microsoft Office". I certainly don't know anyone personally who has. Students get a free Education License and then your employer provides one for you...

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#375

Post by ben_w »

klipt wrote: post #344
ben_w wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We first became powerful because we did the industrial revolution before anyone else, and used more of that capacity to fight the world (and win) than to fight each other. When we fought each other, after the industrial revolution, that was the Napoleonic Wars and the two World Wars. > and ever since the creation of the EU it's been becoming less and less important on the world stage. I wouldn't say it was "ever sinc…

> the world's dominant power by virtue of having roughly half the total world population If human+ level AI takes off one would expect to see a great decoupling of power from population.

Sure, but until then, proportional to each of [population, education/educated workers, capital, instantaneous industrial base, energy supply].

Asia's diverse, but I'd say they seem to be doing pretty well with rapid improvements across all fronts.

In comparison, the US's weaker (not weak-weak, just weaker) areas currently seem to be educated workers, instantaneous industrial base, and energy supply (relative to rapidly growing demand from compute); while the EU's weaker areas currently seem to be capital and energy supply (from supply shock, as it doesn't have the compute). The US and EU both have coming demographic issues, but not as soon as the other stuff becomes more important. People talk about China having demographic issues too, but they're a dictatorship, they can make it shift if they care to.

(And Russia's losing a lot of people, more educated people, capital markets, industrial base, and energy supply).

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#377

Post by Hasz »

01100011 wrote: post #151

I'll agree but from the other direction. AI continues to absorb my job as a senior systems software engineer (c/c++) and after a couple months I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex. I have no idea what people are doing to burn so many tokens but for me this is laughably cheap and every day I discover new capabilities. I don't care if costs go up or down, it's so cheap for what I get that I…

Agentic loops are being promoted by the same people selling tokens, abstracting away the cost per token, and doing everything in their power to obfuscate costs.

I think a senior dev/architect + some good models is still the goated combination.

Generating code and building features, even before AI, was never the issue. Stability, knowing what to build when, and boring business problems (licensing, distribution, sales, etc) were the limits.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#378

Post by myrmidon »

sajithdilshan wrote: post #372
myrmidon wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is pure speculation at this point tbh. You could just as well read the european approach as a bet that frontier models will be unable to keep a significant edge over open competition (and thus not worth throwing subsidies at, because any economic advantage is fleeting at best). Looking at the data and related past experience, this looks like a pretty solid bet (despite the "risk" being hard to quantify).

> You could just as well read the european approach as a bet that frontier models will be unable to keep a significant edge over open competition And that's a bet they will lose 100%. Once the Chinese starts imposing export bans/controlling the access to their models, Europe would be at the mercy of US/China to allow them access or just rely on miserable mistral

Again, you are assuming that frontier models will stay meaningfully ahead long-term. Export controls/bans are pointless if this is not the case.

There is ton of strong indicators that they will not stay ahead: Assuming that technological progress of any kind follows some form of logistic function (where "gains", in this case "intelligence" become sub-linear at some point) is (long-term) a very conservative and proven assumption, and "automatically" negates your lead over time.

Similarly, purely "intellectual" advantage in disciplines like cryptography/computer chess/algorithm design never really stayed concentrated, either.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#379

Post by ryukoposting »

KronisLV wrote: post #3

They have a vision MCP to make up for the model itself not having the capability natively: https://docs.z.ai/devpack/mcp/vision-mcp-server I also found their web search to be mostly okay. Furthermore, in case this is of interest to anyone, if you use their ZCode harness then you get bigger Coding Plan quotas: https://zcode.z.ai/en Used it for a bit, it sits somewhere between OpenCode Desktop (still new but nice) and…

> Not even doing anything crazy, just parallel long form work on 2 projects... and at most 3 parallel code review sub-agents.

I had to read this sentence twice.

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