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The AI Superforecasters Are Here

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Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here

#11

Post by guelo »

AIorNot wrote: post #7

For Pete’s sake lets outlaw prediction markets already instead of hyping them in crappy greed-posts like this one I am embarrassed this “rationalist, I’m so much smarter than you, so I know better” asshole Scott Alexander hasn't been skewered yet for promotion of gambling (prediction markets) that people like Trumps son are making millions of on https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/may/...

We elected con man so we're becoming a swindler nation. In a just world the Andreesen David Sacks types would be in jail stripped of all their money.

Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here

#12

Post by energy123 »

datadrivenangel wrote: post #2

If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it. And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?

They do. One guy with at least 7 figure PnL is a well known forecaster, SemioticRivalry.

Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here

#13

Post by ChrisMarshallNY »

glimshe wrote: post #5
datadrivenangel wrote: post #2

If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it. And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?

You got it (I was going to say "nailed it" but that's becoming an LLM marker). This is exactly what I feel about a lot of the paid investment advice out there. Compounding can make any decent alpha worth a ton, to the point that these people would be investment bankers and not advisors if they knew what they were talking about.

There was an old ad for eTrade that basically said that: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dFQ_W4p1XKY

Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here

#15

Post by datadrivenangel »

energy123 wrote: post #12
datadrivenangel wrote: post #2

If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it. And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?

They do. One guy with at least 7 figure PnL is a well known forecaster, SemioticRivalry.

Only news article I found on that suggests the guy is mostly just market making against bets he thinks are dumb? No mention of AI.

Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here

#16

Post by mc32 »

exe34 wrote: post #6
glimshe wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You got it (I was going to say "nailed it" but that's becoming an LLM marker). This is exactly what I feel about a lot of the paid investment advice out there. Compounding can make any decent alpha worth a ton, to the point that these people would be investment bankers and not advisors if they knew what they were talking about.

Same with get rich quick books.

With one exception : if it teaches you how to put out get rich quick content (books or otherwise).

Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here

#18

Post by brcmthrowaway »

So this person was known for thoughtful blog posts, but has since become a total AI booster. It's probably a gonzo-like effect through the various subcultures he aims to explore, but it paints a very bad picture of them. Imagine if Louis Theroux became a scientologist.

Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here

#20

Post by gwern »

datadrivenangel wrote: post #2

If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it. And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?

> And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?

That's precisely why you would want to make a startup to get investment now rather than self-fund and bootstrap. That alpha isn't going to last forever, especially because everyone has access to the frontier LLMs, which keep getting better, and will eventually beat your fancy harness or specialized finetune.

And also, perhaps more importantly, so you can start developing an alternative to prediction markets and become the new PM; as Scott notes, with superforecaster AI, it's unclear why you really need Kalshi or Manifold or anyone else, with all their fees and overhead. Leave them to the degens, and carve off the socially useful part to do much more efficiently - tokens are cheaper than transactions! This is the big prize, but you need to start now before someone else does it better or commoditizes it.

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