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Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

reuters.com

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Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#301

Post by alex1138 »

chicken-stew wrote: post #294
Aperocky wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you end up with 2 to 3 times more code. That is HORRIBLE, because it means about 50-66% of the code is otherwise unnecessary. Those are eventually going to become unmaintainable garbage. However, if you get 2 to 3 times the code in the interim, that's probably less than what's needed. I find myself cycle through almost 10x-20x amount of code implementations to get what I want which is actually less code, simple so…

“How many Kloc did you submit today? I did 12.”

"How much on user account support?"

"..........."

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#302

Post by diogenescynic »

Facebook is already renting out their excess GPU capacity. Nvidia is giving out GPU capacity for investment stakes in startups. OpenAI is trying to get the government to take a 5% stake and needs to make the same amount of revenue within 3 years as Google does now or else they're going to default on their payments to Oracle. It may not be the same as the 'dark fiber' from the Dot-com bubble but it sure seems similar. Especially when this hardware is purchased ahead of delivery and ages so quickly it's not even clear it will be reusable after a few years. It's the scale of the investment in this stuff that is the issue. In 3 years, AI spending is off the charts compared to the railway bubble, Dot-com bubble, Roaring 20s, or really any other bubble. I don't think it's going to end well.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#303

Post by dfedbeef »

eloisius wrote: post #227
kaydub wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies are putting a ton of effort into getting to that point of having agents do the work unsupervised. Whoever gets there first is going to be the winner. I personally don't think it's possible and I haven't written a line of code since Sept 2025. There's an AI psychosis going on right now, especially among the execs or management class, and we all gotta nod our heads in agreement and burn through tokens.

If you have runway, it’s a good time to start your own thing or join someone who is. Personally, I cannot force myself to wade through slop PRs from careless coworkers. If that’s the job now, I’d rather run a hotdog stand or something. Luckily, I don’t think things are that dire. I think the companies issuing AI mandates are manufacturing sawdust, and even if it works, it would just enable them to burn through custom…

Pretty sure it's going to be a tough couple of decades, not just years.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#304

Post by zmmmmm »

segmondy wrote: post #11

The failure that is llama4 needs to be studied. Meta was kicking ass with llama3.x and then something happened, something really went wrong. what happened between that time and llama4? I think it happened after llama3.1, llama3.2 was nothing to write home about. We need the gossips, maybe a book

I would love to know that inside story. The whole saga is starting to look like one of the biggest own goals in history - Meta went from being widely respected and considered a peer with leading frontier labs to having no competitive technology. How a company seemingly willfully threw away a leading position in the most valuable tech race of all time should be a business case study, apart from a technology one.

I do have a theory : Llama3.1 marks the point where Zuck got seriously interested and took over the reigns in driving the work. From the minute he started directing things instead of considering the AI work as a quirky side project, things went downhill. He tried to force a huge scale up in Llama4 which didn't work. Then as we know he disbanded the whole team and brought in a new crowd of mercenaries who may or may not have had the technical skills but they came into an organisation in disarray and still driven by Zuck himself who is continually forcing decisions that are not well founded in the science.

All the above is an entirely evidence free fan fiction version of things, but I would be completely unsurprised if it is true.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#305

Post by deaux »

simonw wrote: post #175
deaux wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> at this time last year I couldn't even get Claude (using Cursor) to spin me up a service skeleton that would compile, let alone do anything meaningful I've been using it to do this for 2 years now. And many people with me. The change you mention is one of is primarily one of Overton windows, of vibes.

Which harness software were you using for this 2 years ago? VS Code Copilot? Cursor?

Exact same for me as WhatIsDukka.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#306

Post by deaux »

WhatIsDukkha wrote: post #264
simonw wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which harness software were you using for this 2 years ago? VS Code Copilot? Cursor?

Aider for me Very successful by just being careful and walking it forward. Yes its about 2 years, August 2024 from git it looks like.

Exactly the same for me. Sonnet 3.5+Aider made it possible.

I got downvoted though, apparently you and me are liars, haha. Easier to believe that than admit that their take of "I adopted it exactly when it became viable, now it's good, and before that it was a waste of time" was wrong. They're the people who were loudly claiming here last summer it was useless, asking "show me anything useful that has been coded using LLMs". Come to think of it, it has now been a few months since I saw one of those. Used to be every other thread.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#307

Post by zkmon »

> he expects that the social media giant will begin to experience more significant benefits from its AI investments within the next three to six months.

He is hallucinating just like AI, and unable to come to terms with the facts on the ground. Meta has lost plot about 5 years back - with metaverse, VR, glasses and AI. They should sit back and think with a calm head, about what exactly their core product is. Unfortunately there is none, except a few acquired ones: whatsapp and instagram.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#308

Post by ggm »

Investor money being pissed up against the wall, for little purpose? What else is new.

I'm amazed the backers are on board. I wouldn't be. I'd rather invest in dead tech like coal, and soak every last drop of profit, than back this kind of bogus shit which is proving both more expensive, and less workable. Well, maybe not coal, but for goodnes sake, can we cut to the chase where AI investment tanks and move on with our lives?

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#309

Post by alex1138 »

1eueje wrote: post #255
tjpnz wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're going to try to push those stupid glasses next. Not convinced they'll succeed since it's not just the technology problem they need to solve. How do I find PMF for a product which encourages others to physically assault my users, while also not having it banned in various countries? We're talking about a societal shift that would need to happen and nobody's going to trust Meta again where that stuff's concerne…

They’re DOA Only apple has the trust of its users to pull it off. And apple will make sure they do what they can to keep meta out

Possibly Snapchat? Snapchat already has spectacles whereas apple doesn't have their own glasses

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#310

Post by Gigachad »

zkmon wrote: post #307

> he expects that the social media giant will begin to experience more significant benefits from its AI investments within the next three to six months. He is hallucinating just like AI, and unable to come to terms with the facts on the ground. Meta has lost plot about 5 years back - with metaverse, VR, glasses and AI. They should sit back and think with a calm head, about what exactly their core product is. Unfortun…

He's like a crazy dictator going off the rails right now. Combined with trying to ruin the life of the author of Careless People for exposing his crimes against society, and his employees regularly leaking his internal announcements.
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