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As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

seattletimes.com

171–180 of 238 posts

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're looking at national politics, and on that score, yes, the ST is liberal. When it comes to local politics the Seattle Times is conservative. Your objection is a bit like people who object that the Democrats are conservatives, from a European perspective, except this is about the city itself. The current mayor is liberal, the previous mayor was conservative. They're both Democrats and would be defined as libera…

Using local labels to communicate to an (inter)national audience is a bit foolish, I think. In SF, we have a wealthy clique who are locally labeled as “progressives” and who are also contradictorily against new housing. They even veto’d building a new apartment complex on a parking lot! I’d personally call that clique “NIMBY” since their “progressive” label is essentially designed for propagating denialism among the…

Using (inter)national labels when discussing local politics is incoherent.

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#172
post #72
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the graph in the article, NYC is doing about average, and LA/SF are the other front-runners.

SF will recover after a few more AI billboards

Personally, as a long time visitor to SF, the billboards are one of the best parts ;)

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice attempt at recovery but your comment still doesn't make sense. You were talking about Seattle, and then suggested Bellevue was "greener pastures." Not that Seattle was "greener pastures" from Bainbridge lol. Also you just admitted that you don't live in Seattle. So I rest my case.

But couldn’t they have lived in Seattle before moving? I don’t follow your logic.

[deleted]

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the financial "instruments" ? The main claims from the article seem worrysome, IN particular, the 37% vacancy rate, as well as multiple buildings underwater[3], etc. Now, lets dissect the claims that this is part of some cycle, and not the result of new city hall management. The reality is that with Jumpstart, and with the vacancy rate, enterprises are not renting. But, the owner is stuck with the asset in w…

The financial instruments are commercial real estate loans. Those loans often do not allow the borrower to charge lower rent. Property taxes are not calculated that way. The property tax rate for a given year is backed into (a "mill rate") based on approved dollars of spending divided by total property value. If total citywide property value drops by 50%, the property tax rate doubles that year. So no, the property v…

Aren't same instruments being used in Bellevue as well?

"No lowering rent" rules are making downturn worse, but the trigger is something else.

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#175
post #43
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like the GP said: in offices the floor is often a big open space where light from windows can extend a long way. But once you start dividing up that big space into smaller residential units with walls, that light gets blocked.

I don't think bedrooms really need windows and in some ways they're preferable with the light & noise reductions. Even if that's solved the bigger problem is earthquake code. These older buildings aren't up to modern code and significant renovations would require structure changes.

Bedrooms are where people spend majority of their time when awake. It is where kids play, do homework, adults work from home, watch youtube, read internet.

Unless we are talking about super large appartment with tons of rooms, they need windows

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Those loans often do not allow the borrower to charge lower rent. I have never seen it substantiated that a promissory note in commercial real estate has a clause that dictates how the borrower can price their products or services. There will be terms for the borrower to be in default if they lose too much revenue or their expenses go up too much, such as leaving spaces empty: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/ds…

No there won't be clauses about rental amounts. It's not that straightforward. It boils down to collateral for the loan. A building has a value based on future rents. The owner borrows from the bank based on that value. The building is collateral for the loan. The rental rate (not occupancy ) determines the current building value. (Occupancy affects cash-flow, but not building value.) Reducing rent improves cash flow…

This is exactly the key - residential real estate is based on tons of pricing effects, and appraisals are much more "feels" than "reals", if you will (how people feel about the area, how they feel about the tower the previous owner added, how they feel about the location, etc).

Commercial real estate valuations are almost entirely a mathematical formula based on rents, current, whether they're collecting them or no. And if the rents drop (e.g., you start renting it at a lower square foot rate) the valuation drops, which can require recollateralization (e.g., unlike your house, the banks require that the loan NEVER be more than 50% LTV or something) so if the value of the property calculation makes it go above that, you have to pay down the loan or add additional property as collateral.

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#177

Seattle here, and a real estate nerd. This is almost entirely an artifact of the financial instruments used to pay for these buildings, regardless of any Seattle policy changes. The Seattle Times has always been a conservative rag, and their editorial board hates the new mayor, so they hit the "Seattle is dying" story as often as possible. They've got a long history of this whenever there's leadership they don't like…

Cities don't die they just go into hibernation for a few decades only to wake up and grow stronger.

The whole office real estate thing operates on a boom bust cycle.

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're looking at national politics, and on that score, yes, the ST is liberal. When it comes to local politics the Seattle Times is conservative. Your objection is a bit like people who object that the Democrats are conservatives, from a European perspective, except this is about the city itself. The current mayor is liberal, the previous mayor was conservative. They're both Democrats and would be defined as libera…

As a European, Democrats are absolutely not conservative from a European perspective. There are multiple dimensions but at least socially they push everything further to the left than in Europe. (Which is also in my opinion why they are losing elections) Almost every social topic is pushed to the extreme left by the Democrats. Simply look at how many weeks abortion is allowed in blue state and compare with most Europ…

Is this accounting for the fact that European countries with strict abortion laws don't really enforce them any more?

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Those loans often do not allow the borrower to charge lower rent. I have never seen it substantiated that a promissory note in commercial real estate has a clause that dictates how the borrower can price their products or services. There will be terms for the borrower to be in default if they lose too much revenue or their expenses go up too much, such as leaving spaces empty: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/ds…

No there won't be clauses about rental amounts. It's not that straightforward. It boils down to collateral for the loan. A building has a value based on future rents. The owner borrows from the bank based on that value. The building is collateral for the loan. The rental rate (not occupancy ) determines the current building value. (Occupancy affects cash-flow, but not building value.) Reducing rent improves cash flow…

> Reducing the rent triggers a re-evaluation of the building value, which in turn affects the loan. There's no discretion here, it's just math

What is “the” rent? The building has multiple tenants (usually), at various prices. It makes no sense that there is a specific price that the landlord cannot rent at to any one tenant that “triggers” a re-evaluation.

If the lender wants a continuous view into the collateral’s value, which any lender with two brain cells to rub together would, then it would require a minimum DSCR, which they do.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dscr.asp

>On the other hand, as long as the owner continues to pay the installment on the loan, and as long as the building remains the same value, the banker doesn't have to do anything.

This is not sufficient for most CRE loan covenants.

https://www.cohenandsteers.com/insights/the-commercial-real-...

> And 75% of CMBS office loans have a debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) greater than 1.5x (Exhibit 9). This helps to mitigate the risk of term default (i.e., a default prior to a loan’s maturity) since the net cash flow on the properties sufficiently covers interest payments. Generally, term default risk is more of a concern when the DSCR falls below 1.25x. But only 15.5% of CMBS office loans currently have a DSCR in this range.

> Yes, there are ways the price can be fudged a bit (bundling services, remodeling allowances and so on) but the "list price" of the rent can't come down without (automatically) triggering loan problems.

>Yes, there are ways the price can be fudged a bit (bundling services, remodeling allowances and so on) but the "list price" of the rent can't come down without (automatically) triggering loan problems.

DSCR cannot be fudged this way, without engaging in fraud. That’s the whole point, looking at cash flow for the specific collateral gives the lender insight into how well the collateral is being managed and market conditions.

>Since property companies tend to have multiple properties, cash flow is sufficient to pay the loan. So that's a lot better than triggering a revaluation.

Nothing I am reading indicates this is the case. The idea that lenders would want to pretend a business is fine just because they stop selling rather than sells at a lower price than at some point in the past is not passing the smell test. If lay people on the internet can figure out the folly in this concept, then surely the people betting millions and billions can.

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No there won't be clauses about rental amounts. It's not that straightforward. It boils down to collateral for the loan. A building has a value based on future rents. The owner borrows from the bank based on that value. The building is collateral for the loan. The rental rate (not occupancy ) determines the current building value. (Occupancy affects cash-flow, but not building value.) Reducing rent improves cash flow…

This is exactly the key - residential real estate is based on tons of pricing effects, and appraisals are much more "feels" than "reals", if you will (how people feel about the area, how they feel about the tower the previous owner added, how they feel about the location, etc). Commercial real estate valuations are almost entirely a mathematical formula based on rents, current, whether they're collecting them or no .…

Residential real estate has a lot of sweetheart terms due to government subsidies, especially in the US. That is why you don’t see 30 year fixed rates anywhere else, and 0% down loans anywhere else.

The DSCR equivalent for residential real estate is debt-to-income ratio. In a free market, it is conceivable that lenders offer lower interest rates for borrowers who periodically prove their DTI is sufficient. That is basically what refinancing is, and what people with adjustable rates mortgages have to do.

> residential real estate is based on tons of pricing effects, and appraisals are much more "feels" than "reals",

If you have looked at a residential real estate appraisal, there is a very real process of gathering comps, evaluating the structure, discounting for wear and tear of major maintenance items such as roof, HVAC, etc. If anything, because residential real estate sales volume is so much higher than commercial, residential is more “reals” than “feels”.

> if you will (how people feel about the area, how they feel about the tower the previous owner added, how they feel about the location, etc).

Who are these “people”? Because if we are talking about appraisers, this should disqualify their license to appraise. Appraisers should be mostly looking at competitive sale prices, per sq ft construction costs of major house components, and other objective criteria. Why else would a lender pay them to evaluate a property?

>Commercial real estate valuations are almost entirely a mathematical formula based on rents, current, whether they're collecting them or no

This is not true. Try calling up a lender and asking to borrow money without showing them cash flow, and they will hang up on you.

> And if the rents drop (e.g., you start renting it at a lower square foot rate) the valuation drops, which can require recollateralization (e.g., unlike your house, the banks require that the loan NEVER be more than 50% LTV or something)

They literally do this, via DSCR. If you stop renting space, your operating income goes down, which causes the DSCR to go down, which triggers a default, which means the lender can negotiate new terms, which could involve the borrower putting up more money, extended loan terms, change in interest rate, anything.

The alternative to a loan with a DSCR is usually a 5 year adjustable rate mortgage, which usually has a higher interest rate and then in 5 years, you still have to use your cash flow to qualify for another loan, so eventually someone will want to see income for the property

This is a good guide:

https://www.occ.gov/publications-and-resources/publications/...

On page 21, for underwriting standards:

> Effective CRE lending policies generally reflect the following for each type of loan or property:

>• Minimum standards for borrower or project net worth, support provided by guarantees (if applicable), borrower and guarantor cash flow, and debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR).

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