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“Beyond the limit”: Satellites and mirrors in space pose threat to the night sky

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Re: “Beyond the limit”: Satellites and mirrors in space pose threat to the night sky

#201

Post by edelbitter »

Legend2440 wrote: post #22
edelbitter wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some scientific endeavors can be paused and maybe later relaunched, if funding has not dried up and temporarily-worthless machinery has not been left to rot. But stuff like mitigating the constant threat of big enough objects showing up on a collision course with earth should not be paused until those eye-catchers fall out of the sky. If there is something coming at us that can wipe out more than the stock price of o…

>the constant threat of big enough objects showing up on a collision course with earth I don't really think this is a serious risk. This is a once-in-a-million-years kind of event. Also, asteroid detection is not seriously affected by satellites. We can easily tell the difference between a moving satellite and a moving asteroid because of their speed.

We might have even seen the Chelyabinsk one coming, with current tech.. if only it had been coming at us from a slightly less bright direction. That one was probably in the once-in-a-hundred-years category.

Re: “Beyond the limit”: Satellites and mirrors in space pose threat to the night sky

#203

Post by throw0101a »

Legend2440 wrote: post #22
edelbitter wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some scientific endeavors can be paused and maybe later relaunched, if funding has not dried up and temporarily-worthless machinery has not been left to rot. But stuff like mitigating the constant threat of big enough objects showing up on a collision course with earth should not be paused until those eye-catchers fall out of the sky. If there is something coming at us that can wipe out more than the stock price of o…

>the constant threat of big enough objects showing up on a collision course with earth I don't really think this is a serious risk. This is a once-in-a-million-years kind of event. Also, asteroid detection is not seriously affected by satellites. We can easily tell the difference between a moving satellite and a moving asteroid because of their speed.

> I don't really think this is a serious risk. This is a once-in-a-million-years kind of event.

Perhaps the last event was one million years ago and we are now (proverbially) 'due'.

> The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that an independent and equally probable outcome which happened less frequently than expected is more likely to happen in the future (or vice versa).

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

It's like people who say "it sure is strange that we had a 'once-in-a-century flood' two years in a row": that's not how odds/probabilities work.

* https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/we-had-a-100-year-flood-two-years-...

Re: “Beyond the limit”: Satellites and mirrors in space pose threat to the night sky

#204

Post by hack1312 »

ben_w wrote: post #107
piloto_ciego wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a literal leftist by any reasonable metric, the recent trend towards “I wish it was 1995” and “AI is the worst” and “tech sucks now” from people I agree with on many other points frustrates me to no end. “You guys know we could basically live in a Star Trek style utopia if we get this right, right?” “The DATA cenTERS are STEALING the water and breaking Taleckshual ProPerty LERRS!” Like, I thought we were for pirac…

Mm. I know a (US) Green party campaigner who is a self-described communist (I forget which variety), who has yet to realise the contradiction between her love of trade unions and support of the environment when it presents itself in support of the famous UK coal miner's strikes.

There isn’t a contradiction supporting working class coal miners when there’s no plan to transform their labor into green energy.

Re: “Beyond the limit”: Satellites and mirrors in space pose threat to the night sky

#205

Post by manoDev »

stouset wrote: post #125
manoDev wrote: post #12

Should it be possible to coordinate orbits to create permanent clear spots on the sky where observatories are? A LEO no flight zone of sorts.

It’s not just about where the observatories are. It’s where they want to point to. Good luck figuring out which part of the night sky isn’t important for astronomy.

I understand that, but I would expect distant LEO satellites to appear close to the horizon, such that a relatively small aperture in the orbits would allow for a large cone of clear sky near the ground.

Re: “Beyond the limit”: Satellites and mirrors in space pose threat to the night sky

#206

Post by mirashii »

nablaxcroissant wrote: post #46

I'm not sure how exactly they are making these calculations but I just don't see it. Both Reflect and SpaceX are targeting SSO orbits where they are only reflecting for an hour or two at sunset. That isn't true of Starlink, but that constellation is already up there and if its fine right now, I don't see it getting much worse as the materials on it get refined to be less problematic. More regulations would just have…

> that constellation is already up there and if its fine right now

A lot of astronomers disagree.

Re: “Beyond the limit”: Satellites and mirrors in space pose threat to the night sky

#207

Post by reaperducer »

arjie wrote: post #13

These kinds of caps have for years been a dampener on human flourishing. My observation has been that those in stagnation or decline tend to attach themselves to these desires to hold the status quo. Anti-energy, anti-housing, anti-industry and so on because they've reached a local maxima in their ability to live and have chosen to spend their life in leisure. But there is the rest of the world, and if I'm told that…

These kinds of caps have for years been a dampener on human flourishing.

I am a human being. I flourish when I can see the planets and stars.

The utopia you describe sounds more like technological fetishism that benefits a select few, not the entirety of humanity.

Re: “Beyond the limit”: Satellites and mirrors in space pose threat to the night sky

#208

Post by [deleted] »

nablaxcroissant wrote: post #46

I'm not sure how exactly they are making these calculations but I just don't see it. Both Reflect and SpaceX are targeting SSO orbits where they are only reflecting for an hour or two at sunset. That isn't true of Starlink, but that constellation is already up there and if its fine right now, I don't see it getting much worse as the materials on it get refined to be less problematic. More regulations would just have…

[deleted]

Re: “Beyond the limit”: Satellites and mirrors in space pose threat to the night sky

#209

Post by reaperducer »

verdverm wrote: post #82
matthewdgreen wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't understand what these satellites were really like until I visited Zion National Park two weeks ago. Zion is an International Dark Sky park, and so I was really looking forward to seeing the stars. Instead we sat outside and watched dozens and dozens of fast-moving stars zip around on all sorts of trajectories. I'm not saying it ruined the experience (I'm not an astronomer, and it was kind of fun.) But it rea…

What time were you there? My understanding is that around dawn/dusk, the angles cause reflection, but for most of the time they are not visible. Also, what about planes? Those also cause similar light streaks. Another understanding I currently hold is that there is already a method for removing these artifacts

Also, what about planes? Those also cause similar light streaks.

Watch a time-lapse animation of aircraft movement. They follow fairly precise paths, and the number of them diminishes significantly at night.

In places like the ones listed above, they are uncommon at night. I've been to both. You might see one once an hour, if that.

Re: “Beyond the limit”: Satellites and mirrors in space pose threat to the night sky

#210

Post by garbagewoman »

ggreer wrote: post #92
upofadown wrote: post #55

>SpaceX plans to send one million more satellites into orbit, for space-based data centres, ... I think we should wait to see how the first satellite data centre works out. It seems fairly unlikely that it could be practical. It seems kind of nuts... >Reflect Orbital, a US start-up, aims to launch a constellation of very large mirror-like satellites to provide sunlight at night, with reflected beams that span at leas…

I can think of several practical uses. It would be very useful immediately after a disaster. Lighting up the night would make search & rescue much more effective. It would also allow for more solar power generation in an area, reducing pollution. Extra light at high latitudes in the winter would reduce seasonal depression. Are they worth the cost/tradeoffs? I don’t know. But there is practical value to lighting up th…

Mindblowing that people are actually ok with this
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