AI has torched the market for junior programmers • Hacker News Board

Re: AI has torched the market for junior programmers

#101

Post by charcircuit » Sat, Jul 04, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

gwerbin wrote: post #48

charcircuit wrote: post #7

The article makes the false assumption that you can only get better at software engineering by a 1:1 interaction when someone better. It doesn't address that AI can take this role. It doesn't address that there doesn't have to be a job market for junior developers for more senior developers to be created. There are other ways like reading or creating your own software to become senior level.

Juniors can't become seniors without doing real work and using their brains to do it. There is no profession, trade, or skill that you can get good at without doing it.

People don't have to be employed to do real work. Keep in mind even senior developers take time to ramp up at a job and learn the ropes of the position.

Re: AI has torched the market for junior programmers

#102

Post by thisisit » Sat, Jul 04, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

bluescarni wrote: post #58

I am not really seeing how the first chart can be construed as AI disrupting the junior job market... The 22-25 red line had plateaued before the release of ChatGPT and was already trending downwards by the time ChatGPT appeared. Additionally, it took a quite a while before vibe and agentic coding appeared and gained traction, and I cannot really see how the precipitous decline between say Jan 2023 and Jan 2024 can b…

I was just about to comment the same. It’s like a hammer in need of a nail. Here’s where ChatGPT released and jobs dovetails so it must be true.

It will also be interesting to see 2019 through 2021. There was a glut of hiring post COVID and companies have to think about every dollar they spend post ZIRP.

Re: AI has torched the market for junior programmers

#103

Post by ghaff » Sat, Jul 04, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

WillPostForFood wrote: post #89

I'd like to see a larger date range. The Stanford dataset starts in 2021 (covid, work from home, low interest rates, govt stimulus), which is one of the weirdest economic times in the last 100 years. It would be useful to see how Jrs are doing compared to ~10 years ago.

This is one of the problems with a lot of the data in this area. So many different things were/are happening in the space. Gold rush because tech is profitable including bootcamps, AI and companies planning for AI in the future, interest rates/overhiring, etc. etc.

That said, I find a lot of anecdotal information from many people in the space that tech was flooded by a lot of junior programmers who were basically in it for the money with minimal training and they're having a hard time of it. The same thing happened to webdev during dotcom.

Re: AI has torched the market for junior programmers

#104

Post by kappar » Sat, Jul 04, 2026, 8:54 PM UTC

m00x wrote: post #35

I've interviewed a ton of junior engineers. Our company was senior-heavy and we're just now diversifying. 80% of them should reconsider their career paths. They glaringly cheat during interviews, they can't answer basic software questions, and they're clearly in it just for the money. They were never interested in software. They just saw the success of software engineers that put in a lot of work, and were fooled by…

> They glaringly cheat during interviews

How so? I am curious what cheating you are experiencing and how you detect it.

Re: AI has torched the market for junior programmers

#105

Post by sixtyj » Sat, Jul 04, 2026, 8:55 PM UTC

sdevonoes wrote: post #91

sixtyj wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If people are unable to find joy in their paid work even after some time, they should consider doing something else. For sure, sufficient money is important part of this equation. But I strongly believe that if you find (your sort of) fun in what you do then you become faster and more efficient at it. Edit: Cleaning, nursing etc. Yes there are professions that almost no one wants to do. But that doesn’t mean that the…

Wheres the joy in cleaning public toilets? Should all of those workers leave?

It is a prejudice. You have to ask them. Ask nurses why they do what they do. Ask house cleaning stuff why they do it. For sure, a lot of people stay in their jobs because they don’t have any opportunity. But if you go deep enough you find out that a lot of them found some sort of fun while doing their cleaning-public-toilet-sort-of-job. (I have done my research so I know what I am talking about.)

Re: AI has torched the market for junior programmers

#106

Post by oblio » Sat, Jul 04, 2026, 8:56 PM UTC

vatsachak wrote: post #11

[flagged]

> It's not replacement, it's democratization.

At this point every statement that contains "democratization", coming from a tech person, is almost guaranteed to reduce our rights in the long run.

Re: AI has torched the market for junior programmers

#107

Post by petra » Sat, Jul 04, 2026, 8:56 PM UTC

petilon wrote: post #60

In silicon valley, apartment rents are up 20% relative to one year ago. People are getting hired, clearly. Not sure who.

Startups need more than just junior software developers, and AI opened many new opportunities for startups.

Re: AI has torched the market for junior programmers

#108

Post by ghaff » Sat, Jul 04, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC

m00x wrote: post #35

I've interviewed a ton of junior engineers. Our company was senior-heavy and we're just now diversifying. 80% of them should reconsider their career paths. They glaringly cheat during interviews, they can't answer basic software questions, and they're clearly in it just for the money. They were never interested in software. They just saw the success of software engineers that put in a lot of work, and were fooled by…

I do think that's part of it. A lot of people jumped into the roles when they saw it as an alternative to other types of STEM or, heck, any work and was likely to pay a lot more money.

Re: AI has torched the market for junior programmers

#109

Post by deadbabe » Sat, Jul 04, 2026, 8:58 PM UTC

throwaway4233 wrote: post #95

deadbabe wrote: post #2

Anecdotally we haven’t hired junior engineers in over a year and do not plan to.

Wouldn't you be losing out on the fresh ideas and perspectives new entrants into this field brings ? I had read "Valley of Genius: The Uncensored History of Silicon Valley" a few months ago and most of the disruptions in the industry came from engineers who brought in fresh perspective or had the energy to try something different.

I’m gonna be blunt: most of their ideas will probably be stuff they read off an LLM anyway and just reworded.

All our good ideas come from senior level people drawing from a rich history of experience and bold vision.

Re: AI has torched the market for junior programmers

#110

Post by MattPalmer1086 » Sat, Jul 04, 2026, 8:58 PM UTC

Chance-Device wrote: post #79

We don’t need to rebuild the ladder, and we don’t need juniors. By the time the seniors leave the job market, the software engineer profession as we know it simply won’t exist. I very much doubt that there will be the higher level architect position either. If Fable 5 is anything to go by, we’re all replaceable within 12 to 24 months. The rest is social inertia.

How will AIs train on new tech without new data to train on?

On the bright side, maybe that means the end of new javascript frameworks every 6 months :)