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The Beauty of Tautologies

scottsumner.substack.com

11–19 of 19 posts

Re: The Beauty of Tautologies

#12

> At one time, the stock market was closed at night and yet market indices often changed dramatically, even without a single share being traded. A hundred years ago, the Dow might close one day at 243 and open the following morning at 227, reflecting bearish overnight news. In that case, it is fairly obvious that the market moves on new information, not trading activity. To the extent that trading activity has any im…

Do you mean traders set up buy or sell orders and they get matched when market opens? That's... Just how markets work normally?

Yes and no. There's a distinct auction that runs and it is a distinct event and has its own rules. Eg 5 mins (idr exactly, it's been 6 years for me) before the opening cross you can no longer cancel auction orders, post-only. At the open, they run an opening match of all the auction orders, THEN normal trading begins.

Re: The Beauty of Tautologies

#13
Math is nothing but tautologies.

“The logic of the world, which is shown in tautologies by the propositions of logic, is shown in equations by mathematics.” Wittgenstein in Tractatus Logico Philosphicus (6.22)

Re: The Beauty of Tautologies

#14
It would help if the variables were defined somewhere near their point of use. Economists may have dedicated uses for P & Y as well known (to them) as π, but to the casual reader they are...just letters?

Re: The Beauty of Tautologies

#15
This seems to me like Ideology disguised as Tautology.

"Saving = Investment" is an accounting identity and not a causal law. He shifts by implying that 'saving' drives 'investment'. In accounting even unsold inventories are forced into the 'investment' bucket.

Re: The Beauty of Tautologies

#16
post #7

Tautologies are useful to detect errors in reasoning, but not necessarily in actual policy. The problem with tautologies is that usually the context where they are useful is very small. As an example, lets use Equation of Exchange and Cambridge Equation. Defining "Money" (M in the equation) has become nearly impossible when there are so many liquid assets and instruments that act money like. Central banks can't relia…

"All interesting questions are causal." I like that punchline !

Re: The Beauty of Tautologies

#18

> At one time, the stock market was closed at night and yet market indices often changed dramatically, even without a single share being traded. A hundred years ago, the Dow might close one day at 243 and open the following morning at 227, reflecting bearish overnight news. In that case, it is fairly obvious that the market moves on new information, not trading activity. To the extent that trading activity has any im…

OK, but the bids and asks that are established in this closed-over-night market are themselves based on something. And since trading activity is not going on, they are not based on trading activity. I think that's the article author's point, which seems to make sense.

It doesn't prove that trading is not (also) based on trading activity when the market is not closed.

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