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The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

construction-physics.com

41–50 of 74 posts

Re: The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

#41
post #2

I wonder if anyone ever did the math on whether trying to maintain a barrier at the Darian Gap with occasional failures was really a better financial choice than teaming up with South American countries to drive screwworms to extinction.

Releasing the steriles blindly is not enough, you gotta monitor the pest too. This is prohibitively expensive in rainforests and other areas with poor infrastructure.

Okay, maybe you could release the flies in large enough numbers not to need monitoring but I guess it would also be prohibitively expensive.

Re: The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

#42
post #36

> (Some anti-screwworm efforts may have been hindered by DOGE, which cut APHIS staff, screwworm monitoring programs, and may have delayed funding for the Mexico facility, but it’s hard to be confident about this, and the administration has unsurprisingly rejected these claims.) For an article that is so detailed in other areas, this feels like a very short dismissal of a topic that--regardless of direction--deserves…

DOGE probably didn’t help matters but the problem started to rise in 2023. My gut reaction was “damn that DOGE!” too but they didn’t start with cuts until 2025. So it likely just exasperated an already growing concern. This is the same kind of stuff anti-vaxers don’t get. We left South America out of the equation so when the circumstances of migration and feeding changed so did the status quo of a “screwworm free” li…

That's worse though. Cutting a program that had been successful for decades is short sighted, but people tend to begin focusing on the cost of prevention after so long. Memories fade and the question starts to become, "Why are we still spending so much?"

That's not what happened. DOGE carelessly cut a program in the middle of fighting a crisis.

Re: The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

#44
post #32

I have a question for folks who have background in interventions like these. Isn't there a risk that the artificially introduced reproductory pressures would select for screwworms that produce males that are resistant to radiation. My chain of reasoning is that not all the of the irradiated males would be completely sterile. If so, then the next generation would be a mix of hatchlings of not radiated parents and thos…

Not knowledgable, but irradiated flies should not be expected to be irradiated again. There are 3 population pools:

1. The Factory spawning population - This is self-sustained, and never encounters radiation.

2. A subset of the spawned males from the factory population are irradiated, making them sterile.

3. The wild population, consisting of the sterile males + wild males + wild females.

If for some reason the sterile population is not fully sterile (unlikely), then maybe there is a gene that helps for radiation resistance, but the children of that strain will not encounter radiation, so it fades away.

The factories are not going out to the regions where the flies are deployed to get new fly studs.

Re: The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

#45
post #32

I have a question for folks who have background in interventions like these. Isn't there a risk that the artificially introduced reproductory pressures would select for screwworms that produce males that are resistant to radiation. My chain of reasoning is that not all the of the irradiated males would be completely sterile. If so, then the next generation would be a mix of hatchlings of not radiated parents and thos…

I'd expect that if females start to breed more than once it would represent a problem. It's surprising it hasn't happened yet (for the ignorant of the field that I am at least)

Re: The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

#46
post #36

> (Some anti-screwworm efforts may have been hindered by DOGE, which cut APHIS staff, screwworm monitoring programs, and may have delayed funding for the Mexico facility, but it’s hard to be confident about this, and the administration has unsurprisingly rejected these claims.) For an article that is so detailed in other areas, this feels like a very short dismissal of a topic that--regardless of direction--deserves…

DOGE probably didn’t help matters but the problem started to rise in 2023. My gut reaction was “damn that DOGE!” too but they didn’t start with cuts until 2025. So it likely just exasperated an already growing concern. This is the same kind of stuff anti-vaxers don’t get. We left South America out of the equation so when the circumstances of migration and feeding changed so did the status quo of a “screwworm free” li…

I'm not saying it was DOGE--the article introduces a host of other causes--but I think both DOGE and those other causes deserved a lot more airtime than they got; what caused the problem is relatively briefly handled, but what actually went wrong is a key part of the story.

Re: The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

#47

> Overall, the screwworm program seems like a classic case of something becoming a victim of its own success: a problem got solved so thoroughly that we forget how big of a problem it was, and we gradually undermine the conditions that made the solution possible. Chesterson's Fence strikes again. It's so easy to wax poetic about how ineffective government spending always is and should be cut to the bone that we don't…

"Some anti-screwworm efforts may have been hindered by DOGE, which cut APHIS staff, screwworm monitoring programs, and may have delayed funding for the Mexico facility…" Yep.

There appears to be some controversy over whether DOGE's cuts directly caused this specific outbreak[1].

---

"Though it appeared DOGE did cancel funding to the FAO, which works to monitor and control outbreaks of screwworm, in 2025, it was not possible based on the available evidence to conclude that the canceled grant directly caused the outbreak in the U.S. or to determine how it might have affected the FAO's work to contain the parasite in Central America."

---

My interpretation would be that, as the parent article says, there were circumstances that have been leading to this outbreak for years. It may have happened even if Trump were never elected. However, one thing this article makes very clear is that screwworm control measures need to be in place across international borders. It takes efforts in Mexico and further South to stop screwworms before they reach the U.S.. Funding screwworm control in Mesoamerica is actually in the U.S.'s self-interest.

While this particular outbreak may have occurred anyways, cutting funding to screwworm control in Mexico and further South as a part of cutting foreign aid likely exacerbated the problem and will prolong the outbreak. The U.S., purely out of self-interest, should have been boosting funding to screwworm control South of their own borders in 2025, not slashing it.

--------------

[1]https://www.snopes.com/news/2026/06/12/doge-cuts-screwworm/

Re: The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

#48
post #32

I have a question for folks who have background in interventions like these. Isn't there a risk that the artificially introduced reproductory pressures would select for screwworms that produce males that are resistant to radiation. My chain of reasoning is that not all the of the irradiated males would be completely sterile. If so, then the next generation would be a mix of hatchlings of not radiated parents and thos…

I'm not sure radiation resistance is really a thing. Radiation causes physical damage, it's not like a virus or bacteria that an organism can potentially fight off with an immune response. The few males that might survive the gamma exposure with intact fertility are probably just ones that didn't get a full dose. It is rather amazing to me in fact that it's possible to sterilize the males without killing them.

Surprisingly, it is a thing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioresistance

Re: The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

#49
post #32

I have a question for folks who have background in interventions like these. Isn't there a risk that the artificially introduced reproductory pressures would select for screwworms that produce males that are resistant to radiation. My chain of reasoning is that not all the of the irradiated males would be completely sterile. If so, then the next generation would be a mix of hatchlings of not radiated parents and thos…

Not knowledgable, but irradiated flies should not be expected to be irradiated again. There are 3 population pools: 1. The Factory spawning population - This is self-sustained, and never encounters radiation. 2. A subset of the spawned males from the factory population are irradiated, making them sterile. 3. The wild population, consisting of the sterile males + wild males + wild females. If for some reason the steri…

Your 1. By itself would mitigate the risk I think.

Re: The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

#50
post #32

I have a question for folks who have background in interventions like these. Isn't there a risk that the artificially introduced reproductory pressures would select for screwworms that produce males that are resistant to radiation. My chain of reasoning is that not all the of the irradiated males would be completely sterile. If so, then the next generation would be a mix of hatchlings of not radiated parents and thos…

I'm not sure radiation resistance is really a thing. Radiation causes physical damage, it's not like a virus or bacteria that an organism can potentially fight off with an immune response. The few males that might survive the gamma exposure with intact fertility are probably just ones that didn't get a full dose. It is rather amazing to me in fact that it's possible to sterilize the males without killing them.

Everything is a thing. Immune systems are, when all is said and done, physics. Simpler forms of death tend to be harder to evolve resistance against, but given enough generations it will happen. For example, microorganisms regularly evolve increasing resistance to sterilizing chemicals, such as enterococcus faecium evolving resistance to isopropanol, various species of bacillus increasing their resistance to hydrogen peroxide, pseudomonas evolving resistance to benzalkonium chloride, etc.
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