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Please stop the AI confidence theater

elenaverna.com

121–130 of 282 posts

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#121

Ok I'll take the bait. > Look: I work at an AI company. I use AI all day. Looks like OP works at dropbox. Dropbox is not an AI company. It's not remotely one. Why does this matter? Because it undermines the entire point of the post. Later: > And if you’re watching that kind of hyped content: You can be part of the solution, too. Hold your favorite creators accountable! Ask them to show you the receipts! If you know t…

Haven't you heard? Every company is an "AI company" now.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#122

> Show me something truly life changing. i dont think there is any software on the planet that i would consider "truly life changing", so i find it a bit weird to hold ai up to that standard. as a note, i found this particularly funny: " It’s doing more harm than good. " followed immediately by " This post is sponsored by Firecrawl. Firecrawl is the web data API to search, scrape, and interact with the web at scale.…

> i dont think there is any software on the planet that i would consider "truly life changing", so i find it a bit weird to hold ai up to that standard. Surely you're kidding right? You can have a medical emergency while sitting on the can in a bathroom, and then call up your doctor who can magically see exactly whats wrong as if they are looking through a literal crystal ball portal, and then they can immediately se…

I don’t consider myself a wizard.

You seem a little full of yourself. (That’s putting it charitably. You seem full of shit.)

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#123

As a hobbyist exploring LLMs since Summer 2022 (electrician by trade)... I've been as blown away by generative AI results/output as I've been left laughing at its hallucinations . My first forays were via CrAIyon & ThisWordDoesNotExist .com . Now, four years later: I've finally been able to purchase a 5070Ti (from a ~1080Ti~ – so, an upgrade ). The past few days have been overwhelming as I explore the rights/wrongs o…

> Anybody have a good coding model (it's whatever language Atmel Arduino uses, by default) that runs on a 5070Ti, best? Atmel Arduino is mostly assembly (rarely used and assembly is generic to everything) and C. But you can’t use the usual C libraries because they are tailored to OS like Linux or Windows and the hardware those run on (i386, amd64, arm,…). That’s the primary constraint you need to implement in whateve…

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Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#126

> Show me something truly life changing. i dont think there is any software on the planet that i would consider "truly life changing", so i find it a bit weird to hold ai up to that standard. as a note, i found this particularly funny: " It’s doing more harm than good. " followed immediately by " This post is sponsored by Firecrawl. Firecrawl is the web data API to search, scrape, and interact with the web at scale.…

It's held to that standard because of the hype. Literally the boosters can't stop saying "THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING!"

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#127

Ok I'll take the bait. > Look: I work at an AI company. I use AI all day. Looks like OP works at dropbox. Dropbox is not an AI company. It's not remotely one. Why does this matter? Because it undermines the entire point of the post. Later: > And if you’re watching that kind of hyped content: You can be part of the solution, too. Hold your favorite creators accountable! Ask them to show you the receipts! If you know t…

I had a similar reaction to the "I work at an AI company" and finding out it was Dropbox. And I agree with you, they are not in any way an AI company that would be relevant for someone making claims about frontier intelligence.

I'm empathetic to their position though. It is entirely unsurprising to me that someone working in a growth role at Dropbox is unimpressed by the current state of AI relative to its broader claims in the market. They're not working on AI itself nor are they using applied AI where you see the biggest gains (e.g. SWE, ML, data science, etc.).

We still have a significant capability overhang at the frontier for a big chunk of knowledge work task domains, so I think its understandable (given the above selection bias) why someone would think the confidence is overblown. They have a point in their own domain.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#128
post #59
post #14

As someone who has worked closely to the marketing space, there’s a saying that goes something like: ‘then the marketers found about it and ruin everything’. Quick example: when amazon launched kindle self publishing, there was a golden age where wannabe writers could self-publish their books, and let the market dictate what survived and became successful. Eventually, some people got good money out of it. Then market…

There's an old Bill Hicks bit where during his already awkward standup, he takes a moment to somehow dial the awkwardness up further: If you're of a certain age, you'll know the bit: https://genius.com/Bill-hicks-on-advertisers-and-marketing-a... It's awkward because you can feel how much he means every word. Of course it's part of the act and you're supposed to find it funny, but at the same time, he very much means…

Incredible, Bill Hicks on HN. My life has come full circle.

Ironically Bill smoked like a chimney and for that we can also largely thank marketers.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#129
post #36

The article has solid observations, but I would correct one important thing. It's not AI confidence, it's AI psychosis. A lot of people I know are forced to use AI at work. They universally tell me that their coworkers generate awful PRs with bugs, nonsensical code and fake unit tests. But they also universally tell me that they are different, have special workflows and prompts that create good code. The psychology b…

AI is clearly a force multiplier, both negative and positive. The truth is there are prolific developers like Antirez who have built quality new projects at an incredible pace (Dwarfstar 4, Redis features). But as unpopular as it is to say it, in the working world ~80% of developers pre-AI mostly just attended meetings, did a little busywork and committed small patches here and there. Probably around 20% really moved…

This is also the dichotomy I'm seeing. This meme sums it up https://fixupx.com/danhockenmaier/status/2021617680525172840

I like to imagine a similar dynamic happening when previous transformative technologies were invented: when the power tools like the chainsaw were invented, I wonder if there was a cohort of carpenters that dismissed them because of how much damage they could do in unskilled hands.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#130

My observation is that a lot of folks still discounting the capabilities or impact of AI either aren't working with frontier intelligence or aren't using it right. While the coding horse has been beat within an inch of its life already, I'd recommend throwing Codex on 5.5 high thinking with Computer Use + auto approve at the next thing you're about to spend 5+ minutes on to start to get a feel for how well it handles…

I find that thinking/agent mode sometimes makes it worse/comes up with the same thing and just takes a long time. But I’m sure it’ll be different with fable for a few months until that hype blows over
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