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Ed Zitron on CNBC: GenAI Doesn't Work, and Big Tech Is Out of Hypergrowth Ideas

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Re: Ed Zitron on CNBC: GenAI Doesn't Work, and Big Tech Is Out of Hypergrowth Ideas

#21
post #10

Ed Zitron, He gets things others are missing. He also misses things others are getting. I think it’s nice to have a voice criticizing the fundraising aspect of these companies. I do think we’ll see at least one of them blow up. The technology is obviously useful though. Hundreds of thousands of developers have already changed the way they were working for decades. Some of the criticisms that the technology doesn’t wo…

Would you be able to quantify how useful it is? Trillions are at stake here, so you’ll need to get specific.

I can't quantify how useful GitHub is as a software developer either. That doesn't prove it's useless, just that it's hard to quantify.

Re: Ed Zitron on CNBC: GenAI Doesn't Work, and Big Tech Is Out of Hypergrowth Ideas

#22
post #4

I don't understand the people who have the patience to listen to Zitron. It's all one-tone takes with no place for nuance, you kind of know what he's going to say and the fact the mixes genuine criticism with bad faith arguments doesn't help.

> I don't understand the people who have the patience to listen to Zitron. It's all one-tone takes with no place for nuance... But that's why some people give him the time of day. A lot of people prefer to see things in black and white because it's easier on the brain. Basically, Ed is doing the easy part (pointing out the malinvestment) and not addressing the harder part, which is to predict what comes next in reali…

> and a couple decades on, immense wealth has been created

For whom? "Everyone". Maybe we can quote some "Everyone is better off now/the global standard of living has increased bullshit". Have you tried to get a job that pays enough to buy the average house in your area?

Re: Ed Zitron on CNBC: GenAI Doesn't Work, and Big Tech Is Out of Hypergrowth Ideas

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't understand the people who have the patience to listen to Zitron. It's all one-tone takes with no place for nuance... But that's why some people give him the time of day. A lot of people prefer to see things in black and white because it's easier on the brain. Basically, Ed is doing the easy part (pointing out the malinvestment) and not addressing the harder part, which is to predict what comes next in reali…

> It's a bit like the first .com boom. There was a huge amount of malinvestment and the bubble popping was painful That's the point though, isn't it? How detached from reality must you be to think this is ok? "Painful" is carrying a lot of weight in that sentence. Painful means people lost their jobs, families broke up, depression, probably suicide, other forms of violence... There must be a better way to go about th…

I won't dismiss the human cost but boom and bust cycles have existed for a very long time. This isn't a new thing today, and it wasn't new then either.

You can view these things 100% cynically, or you can also consider the possibility that markets over (and also under) shooting are also a form of discovery in which the value of new business models, technologies, etc. are determined. While I'm not personally a fan of today's financial engineering and have concerns about direct government investments in particular, net-net it's probably better to live in economies where capital is abundant and malinvestment is possible, than to live economies where the opposite is true.

From the .com days, I personally observed four categories of outcome:

1. Total financial ruin. If we're being honest, this was often the result of individuals who got rich very quickly and spent even more quickly.

2. Survival. Lots of people got laid off and eventually found new jobs when the economy recovered. Their experience was valuable. A decent number of these people went on to ride the recovery boom and are comfortable if not "rich" today.

3. Survival with a story to tell. People who survived and came away with a story to tell ("at one point I was worth millions on paper and 6 months later I was laid off").

4. Huge windfall. Some people made a lot of money and through luck and/or smarts, managed to walk away from the implosion wealth intact.

The truth is that nobody can predict with certainty the future. Markets are the place where humans make bets about the future. Expecting entirely orderly markets in which everything moves at a predictable pace in a predictable way, where no participants win or lose too much, just isn't realistic.

Re: Ed Zitron on CNBC: GenAI Doesn't Work, and Big Tech Is Out of Hypergrowth Ideas

#24
I believed that $10-30 billion/year TAM figure is sourced from this research report:

https://www.precedenceresearch.com/large-language-model-mark...

The TAM figure they arrive at is ~$36 billion by 2030. And for 2026 they claim a TAM of $10.6B

OpenAI alone is rumored to be on track for $30B of revenue in 2026. Add in Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Chinese providers, and the revenue being generated from LLM's in 2026 is plausibly in the range of $50-100B already.

Whatever your thoughts are on the cash burn to get there are irrelevant. There's at least $50B of LLM usage being paid for in 2026. 5x higher than the figure these research report companies are providing.

Re: Ed Zitron on CNBC: GenAI Doesn't Work, and Big Tech Is Out of Hypergrowth Ideas

#25
Folks if you believe this Ed guy, you're soon going be really disappointed.

LLMs are big, Codex app is huge. You can control the browser from within codex app with just natural language.

Tell codex to perform a few actions, you go get coffee and come back to work done. This is real boost in productivity.

Re: Ed Zitron on CNBC: GenAI Doesn't Work, and Big Tech Is Out of Hypergrowth Ideas

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you be able to quantify how useful it is? Trillions are at stake here, so you’ll need to get specific.

Some numbers for the people in the back. https://isaiprofitable.com/

The header looks not too bad until you realize that 2/3 of the industry revenue is Nvidia ... If you remove the shovel sellers (Micron/Nvidia/AMD) revenue is left at $183B.

Re: Ed Zitron on CNBC: GenAI Doesn't Work, and Big Tech Is Out of Hypergrowth Ideas

#27
post #10

Ed Zitron, He gets things others are missing. He also misses things others are getting. I think it’s nice to have a voice criticizing the fundraising aspect of these companies. I do think we’ll see at least one of them blow up. The technology is obviously useful though. Hundreds of thousands of developers have already changed the way they were working for decades. Some of the criticisms that the technology doesn’t wo…

> Hundreds of thousands of developers have already changed the way they were working for decades

I agree on this, but it doesn't mean that there is an automatic benefit on business side ... and business is what is paying our wages & tokens!

We are still in the discovery phase, but we don't know yet if there will be enough return to repay those hundreds of billions already invested and other few trillions that will be invested in the near future.

Re: Ed Zitron on CNBC: GenAI Doesn't Work, and Big Tech Is Out of Hypergrowth Ideas

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you be able to quantify how useful it is? Trillions are at stake here, so you’ll need to get specific.

Some numbers for the people in the back. https://isaiprofitable.com/

Some logic for those who don't do numbers:

Token rates need to double in order for the industry to "break even".

In reality, just "breaking even" is not enough. Venture capital expects a sizeable return on their investment. So look for token rates to triple.

In reality, most companies are not at all prepared to feed AI vendors what they need in order to become profitable.

Uber is an early example of what is in store.

https://aimagazine.com/news/why-uber-has-already-burned-thro...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/janakirammsv/2026/05/17/uber-bu...

Re: Ed Zitron on CNBC: GenAI Doesn't Work, and Big Tech Is Out of Hypergrowth Ideas

#30

I believed that $10-30 billion/year TAM figure is sourced from this research report: https://www.precedenceresearch.com/large-language-model-mark... The TAM figure they arrive at is ~$36 billion by 2030. And for 2026 they claim a TAM of $10.6B OpenAI alone is rumored to be on track for $30B of revenue in 2026. Add in Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Chinese providers, and the revenue being generated from LLM's…

> There's at least $50B of LLM usage being paid for in 2026

Just out of curiosity, where did you get the 50B figure?

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