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Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

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Re: Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

#61

You need to resubmit this with a better headline: People prefer scrolling to sex enough that using the iPhone explains up to half of the U.S. birth decline since 2011.

Also should note that this is a working paper and not peer reviewed. Working papers are circulated to invite comments and discussion. Until some experts confirm their methodology I wouldn't take any of this for granted.

Re: Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

#62

Is porn birth control ? Yes it is. But why is porn free and ubiquitous ? Surely there's an enormous amount of money behind it, but where's the ROI ?

I'd say that smart phones are a bigger problem than porn.

If you are in the category that would sit and watch porn in the public, then you already wouldn't need birth control.

Re: Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

#64
This study uses iPhone usage and birthrates at the county level. The rural/urban distinction for counties has a strong correlation with wideband cellular data coverage, and that effect was even stronger in the early days of the iPhone when cellular data coverage was both weaker and more expensive.

Apple has better data. They know who has an iPhone, and they almost certainly know if they have kids. That info is probably available via ad brokers.

Re: Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

#65
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it costs $1200000 to raise baby What exactly are you planning to do with all that money anyway? Consume things?

The right question is "to what age". Get all McKinsey and calculate a TCO of a baby from conception to end-of-uni. $1.2M is low-end even for eastern EU, it's more like twice that. 0-to-23. $100K/year. This what a baby costs.

If I had $300k going through my bank account every year I really think I would have noticed by now.

Re: Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

#66

this comes to show that sex is just entertainment and it is being crowded out from all sides

There's a subgenre of dystopian sci-fi where the premise is that reality in general is destined to be eclipsed by matrix-like hyper-realities, and that people will vastly prefer those and cede reality to whoever's left. I guess the way this could work itself out is that if you prefer a hyper-reality, your genes do not pass on, and someone else's do, and within some number of generations we bounce back in response to…

However, medical care isn't evenly distributed, neither is education, and there's tons of cultural differences as well. The mutations happen, but if the next Einstein or Ramanujan dies in a war-torn ghetto, did the mutation really happen?

Re: Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

#67
Here's an anecdote that today's kids are too young to have experienced, but their parents also weren't around for it. I was in middle school when the iPhone became popular. It was pretty sudden, so the social effect was obvious. Their parents probably bought them iPhones because they were addicted too, but it's different when you're in school. Since then have been hoping for a day when this gets undone.

Re: Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

#69

this comes to show that sex is just entertainment and it is being crowded out from all sides

There's a subgenre of dystopian sci-fi where the premise is that reality in general is destined to be eclipsed by matrix-like hyper-realities, and that people will vastly prefer those and cede reality to whoever's left. I guess the way this could work itself out is that if you prefer a hyper-reality, your genes do not pass on, and someone else's do, and within some number of generations we bounce back in response to…

Interesting. It hadn't occurred to me that The Matrix would become more ubiquitous, but it seems there are plenty of mechanisms from avoiding that. People read novels 200 years ago, and i imagine that was a bit of blue pilling.

Re: Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

#70

You need to resubmit this with a better headline: People prefer scrolling to sex enough that using the iPhone explains up to half of the U.S. birth decline since 2011.

Seriously though, I'm gay so if I want I can literally go to a sex club and have sex, but scrolling is 100 times better than sex with a random person.

IMO the problem isn't that we choose scrolling over sex, but that having a smartphone makes independence easier, which removes opportunities and motivation to meet people. People talk to each other mainly when they need to solve practical problems. Remove practical problems and you remove social interaction.

I remember clearly that when my ex fixed my bike I had a strong impulse of being attracted to him. But realistically, when my bike is broken, I'd rather take it to a bike shop than ask someone for help and then do favors in exchange.

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