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"An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

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Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

#41

Post by DrewADesign »

sublinear wrote: post #22
Waterluvian wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a lot of jobs that have historically been automated were considered “intelligent” jobs. I’m not sure if this really is different or not. I also think there’s an enormous amount of white collar work that isn’t actually “intelligent” work. Especially in software development. The question I’ve been pondering isn’t about “where’s the intelligent work?” It’s, “what do we do when we’ve successfully vanquished work…

> I also think there’s an enormous amount of white collar work that isn’t actually “intelligent” work. Especially in software development. That is begging the question pretty hard.

To be fair, that sort of haughty sentiment is very common among developers just before the job market demonstrates how special they’re not.

Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

#42

Post by majormajor »

saimiam wrote: post #25
bayarearefugee wrote: post #4

> Key to this view is our expectation that over the long run AI will create many new jobs even as it destroys existing ones. Still waiting for anyone with this viewpoint to offer a single educated guess at what any of these created jobs might look like even in very broad terms. All I ever see is basically a religious belief that surely something will arise. I get that previous automation waves have lead to new jobs i…

1. AI weights managers - people whose job is to optimize model weights to yield highly specific outcomes 2. Agentic tourism - maybe you’ll be able to send your AI agent/robot to visit a place before you decide if it worth your time and investment 3. Vehicular trains on highways where vehicles going to similar destinations coordinate and move as a unit. There’ll be people optimising roads for this. E.g., exit lanes on…

Few of those seem like human jobs vs AI jobs in any scenario where AI is good enough to need to find massive amounts of new human jobs? Some of them explicitly aren't jobs, even in your description, like "send your AI agent/robot to visit a place."

(7) is basically "a mechanic/service technician" which is literally a job that already exists all over the place. Is is, at least, the only one that doesn't seem like one of these "agents" could do itself today, but in the world where the agents get that good, that level of robotic ability - the ability to manipulate a screwdriver with human dexterity - doesn't seem very far off at all and is being actively invested in by many many people.

Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

#43

Post by relativeadv »

saimiam wrote: post #25
bayarearefugee wrote: post #4

> Key to this view is our expectation that over the long run AI will create many new jobs even as it destroys existing ones. Still waiting for anyone with this viewpoint to offer a single educated guess at what any of these created jobs might look like even in very broad terms. All I ever see is basically a religious belief that surely something will arise. I get that previous automation waves have lead to new jobs i…

1. AI weights managers - people whose job is to optimize model weights to yield highly specific outcomes 2. Agentic tourism - maybe you’ll be able to send your AI agent/robot to visit a place before you decide if it worth your time and investment 3. Vehicular trains on highways where vehicles going to similar destinations coordinate and move as a unit. There’ll be people optimising roads for this. E.g., exit lanes on…

cute

Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

#44

Post by sublinear »

DrewADesign wrote: post #41
sublinear wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I also think there’s an enormous amount of white collar work that isn’t actually “intelligent” work. Especially in software development. That is begging the question pretty hard.

To be fair, that sort of haughty sentiment is very common among developers just before the job market demonstrates how special they’re not.

The most volatile jobs in software development have always been management. I'm not sure where you're going with the ragebait. I was asking a sensible question, not picking a dead-end argument.

Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

#45

Post by Stitch4223 »

nondevmendel wrote: post #29

A few points: 1. As a somewhat self-denying but admittedly obvious "tech bro", I can't help but cringe at some of the tech bro podcasts claiming that AI is not going to mass replace jobs. After a previous round of layoffs at my company due to financial constraints. We've managed to not just replace the bulk of our developers withy Claude, but seriously outperform them and build some serious, real-world applications i…

My role in IT was always to make myself obsolete. We’re in automation after all. AI doesn’t change that principle, it does remove some of the work I don’t like (when applied correctly).

Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

#46

Post by noncoml »

doobiedowner wrote: post #31
bayarearefugee wrote: post #4

> Key to this view is our expectation that over the long run AI will create many new jobs even as it destroys existing ones. Still waiting for anyone with this viewpoint to offer a single educated guess at what any of these created jobs might look like even in very broad terms. All I ever see is basically a religious belief that surely something will arise. I get that previous automation waves have lead to new jobs i…

Pid control was supposed to allow people that rotate valves to magically transform into software configurators. That never happened. Those people turned into janitors and an automated solution became a capital project. The janitorial staff gets fired in the end.

This generation is f*cked, just like that generation was. The new jobs are for the next generation.

Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

#47

Post by majormajor »

swalsh wrote: post #24
bayarearefugee wrote: post #4

> Key to this view is our expectation that over the long run AI will create many new jobs even as it destroys existing ones. Still waiting for anyone with this viewpoint to offer a single educated guess at what any of these created jobs might look like even in very broad terms. All I ever see is basically a religious belief that surely something will arise. I get that previous automation waves have lead to new jobs i…

Okay, work with me on this, because its a stretch. The new businesses created, might look very much like the old businesses that disappeared. But they're not focused on scale and profits. They're focused on an ideal of pushing the boundaries. Maybe a single craftsman making small one off hand made pieces. Maybe a pizzeria that puts out a small quantity of the best pizza. Little individual pursuits towards perfection.…

Take all the countries in the world and split them by "the ruling class enables people to do whatever small things they want" vs "the ruling class puts its own interest above everyone else's and uses technology for their own advantage and to strengthen their control."

Which count of countries comes out higher?

Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

#48

Post by saimiam »

ks2048 wrote: post #33
saimiam wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. AI weights managers - people whose job is to optimize model weights to yield highly specific outcomes 2. Agentic tourism - maybe you’ll be able to send your AI agent/robot to visit a place before you decide if it worth your time and investment 3. Vehicular trains on highways where vehicles going to similar destinations coordinate and move as a unit. There’ll be people optimising roads for this. E.g., exit lanes on…

I don't see why any of these can't be done by AI. Except (7), which frankly, I don't understand what you mean.

7 - what if bots want to fcuk humans?

You’re probably right that many jobs can eventually be done by AI but not on day 1. Between Day 1 of the brave new AI world and Day N, humans will be in the loop doing stuff that other humans will try to automate away ad nauseam. On Day N+1, there’ll be yet another HN question asking what exactly humans will be doing in the Braver Newer AI World.

Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

#49

Post by carlosjobim »

nemomarx wrote: post #16
carlosjobim wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What kind of jobs? Say we get real time translation between various languages. What will I do?

It means you can communicate with people from anywhere in the world and do business with them. Real time or not.

So whatever you do, now you have a larger market of potential customers, since your work in is not limited by language anymore.

Tourism is the largest economic sector on this planet. And high quality, cheap translations increase the reach explosively both for seller and customer.

Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]

#50

Post by noncoml »

swalsh wrote: post #24
bayarearefugee wrote: post #4

> Key to this view is our expectation that over the long run AI will create many new jobs even as it destroys existing ones. Still waiting for anyone with this viewpoint to offer a single educated guess at what any of these created jobs might look like even in very broad terms. All I ever see is basically a religious belief that surely something will arise. I get that previous automation waves have lead to new jobs i…

Okay, work with me on this, because its a stretch. The new businesses created, might look very much like the old businesses that disappeared. But they're not focused on scale and profits. They're focused on an ideal of pushing the boundaries. Maybe a single craftsman making small one off hand made pieces. Maybe a pizzeria that puts out a small quantity of the best pizza. Little individual pursuits towards perfection.…

Right. The uber rich are sure to share the wealth. Thanks for the laugh.

Americans are fucked. European on the other hand may start bring out the guillotines again.

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