"An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
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"An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
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Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
#2> Rapid improvements in AI capabilities and growing corporate adoption have led to
predictions that the technology could lead to large-scale job losses before the end
of the decade. So, just how concerned should we be about an AI “job apocalypse”?
MIT’s Daron Acemoglu and Neil Thompson and GS’ Joseph Briggs generally agree
that these predictions likely won’t come to pass, though they differ on the scale of disruption ahead. Briggs expects significant labor displacement but only temporarily as new jobs eventually emerge. Thompson is less convinced about large-scale job displacement and takes comfort in the ability to anticipate changes, seeing AI as a rising tide rather than a crashing wave for labor. And Acemoglu expects a small net negative impact on labor over the next five years, with possible larger losses over the longer term if investment remains focused on replacing rather than complementing workers. Amid this debate, we find that AI’s impact on corporate labor needs—and earnings—remains too uncertain for markets to reward (for now).
A GS report - including discussions with MIT labor economists DAren Acemoglu (Nobel), Neil Thompson
Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
#3I tried to find a GS report from the top of the 2000 tech bubble but couldn't find one. I wonder what it would have said?
Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
#4> Key to this view is our expectation that over
the long run AI will create many new jobs even as it
destroys existing ones.
Still waiting for anyone with this viewpoint to offer a single educated guess at what any of these created jobs might look like even in very broad terms.
All I ever see is basically a religious belief that surely something will arise.
I get that previous automation waves have lead to new jobs in the past, but automating knowledge and intelligence is just fundamentally a different thing than anything we have automated in the past and what exactly stops AI from taking those new jobs too as soon as the need for them is recognized?
Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
#5> Key to this view is our expectation that over the long run AI will create many new jobs even as it destroys existing ones. Still waiting for anyone with this viewpoint to offer a single educated guess at what any of these created jobs might look like even in very broad terms. All I ever see is basically a religious belief that surely something will arise. I get that previous automation waves have lead to new jobs i…
I'm still waiting for this theory to demonstrate itself in countries that already have labour surplesses
Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
#6> Key to this view is our expectation that over the long run AI will create many new jobs even as it destroys existing ones. Still waiting for anyone with this viewpoint to offer a single educated guess at what any of these created jobs might look like even in very broad terms. All I ever see is basically a religious belief that surely something will arise. I get that previous automation waves have lead to new jobs i…
> All I ever see is basically a religious belief that surely something will arise.
Welcome to economics! Bullshit and conjecture all the way down.
Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
#7> Key to this view is our expectation that over the long run AI will create many new jobs even as it destroys existing ones. Still waiting for anyone with this viewpoint to offer a single educated guess at what any of these created jobs might look like even in very broad terms. All I ever see is basically a religious belief that surely something will arise. I get that previous automation waves have lead to new jobs i…
I think a lot of jobs that have historically been automated were considered “intelligent” jobs.
I’m not sure if this really is different or not. I also think there’s an enormous amount of white collar work that isn’t actually “intelligent” work. Especially in software development.
The question I’ve been pondering isn’t about “where’s the intelligent work?” It’s, “what do we do when we’ve successfully vanquished work itself?” Will we move towards utopia? Or will the power disparity only grow and broken capitalism be used against us?
Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
#8> Rapid improvements in AI capabilities and growing corporate adoption have led to predictions that the technology could lead to large-scale job losses before the end of the decade. So, just how concerned should we be about an AI “job apocalypse”? MIT’s Daron Acemoglu and Neil Thompson and GS’ Joseph Briggs generally agree that these predictions likely won’t come to pass, though they differ on the scale of disruption…
FWIW I think Acemoglu writes very well & I loved his book "Why Nations Fail" for introducing lots of interesting ideas to me, while also helping me understand my own (non-failed) society better.
Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
#9I tried to find a GS report from the top of the 2000 tech bubble but couldn't find one. I wonder what it would have said?
There's this, which seems uncontroversial.
https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Teaching/BA453_2004/Street_...
Re: "An AI Job Apocalypse?" – Goldman Sachs Report [pdf]
#10Why are AI boosters turning around and trying to suggest AI now won't take our jobs? Or less jobs than previously stated?
Meanwhile Meta has so much AI compute that they don't know what to do with, and they are ready to lease it out. And corporations suddenly want token austerity across the board. OpenAI is delaying their IPO until "next year."
Something is starting to give.