If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
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If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
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Re: If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
#2"In a forthcoming book, they argue that the collapse of advanced-country growth is not merely a result of the financial crisis; at its root, they argue, these countries’ weakness reflects secular stagnation in technology and innovation."
I'd argue it's a result of artificially low interest rates which effectively increased societal time preference. In short, we spent the last 40 years or so eating our future. We've run out of future to borrow from.
I'm glad to see Thiel is kind of in agreement. :)
Re: If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
#3I think if you just discount all modern innovations then it's easy to say nothing has changed of note. My TV looks better than ever. Should I just discount that as progress because it's still a picture displayed in my living room? If you suggest the iPhone 5 which allows me to get anywhere without planning with turn by turn directions, communicate with family on the road, make dinner reservations, and answer a work related question via email is not advancing anything just because the science behind it was settled in the 1970s? The amount of wealth and coordination in society to make that happen at such a low price is difficult to get your head around. It wasn't innovation policy that lead to these things though it was the result of the market providing services to people who want thme and individuals working very hard to make it happen.
Regulation (another word for taxes) and taxes are much higher than in prior periods. It should surprise no one that these have negative effects on growth. Combine that with taking on a lot of debt that cannot be repaid and you have a recipe for low growth. I'm afraid that any innovation policy that isn't just will just end up as gifts to those who are well connected.
Part of the problem is that some of the things we have now are totally amazing and we just don't care to notice.
Re: If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
#4Or we burned through all the easy to get materials....
Re: If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
#5Several economists write about the Great Stagnation a lot at www.marginalrevolution.com.
A couple things to think about:
- There have been a lot of very smart people who have thought growth can't solve the world's problems. They've been wrong. For example.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus
- This seems to have hit the great middle... The one downside of people getting hyper-productive with technology is the masses who can't keep up do get left behind. This is more a problem for the customers of YC than HN's readers.
Re: If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
#6I think they're both right: because there is more than one problem facing us.
The press like to focus on one issue at a time. Europe last week, US elections yesterday, fiscal cliff today and China tomorrow.
The reality is that there are many major problems.
Off the top of my head:
--
* People these days have everything they need. There are very few must-have items to spur sales
* The inventions so far cover a lot of what we need to live long in absolute safety and comfort. This is what Kasparov is noticing.
* Western Economies are 66% or more based on consumer spending ; any belt tightening has major impact
* People are still in too much debt, they're spending less
* Companies still have borrowed too much in the past: expecting boom years to continue 2050+
* Banks insolvent without support
* All governments bar Norway,Oz,Cananda? are in deficit
* Pensions are barely worth the contributions you put in over your lifetime. There has been no 5-8% increase as forecast
* Some countries have demographic problems where a lot of people will leave the income earning age
* It looks difficult for Democracies to reduce government spending. 'Pain-now', both real or perceived, is always deferred
[Edit for formatting, spelling]
Re: If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
#7I have one word for Thiel and Kasparov: Biology.
There are many known-unknowns in the sphere of biology, and by extension, medicine right now. We may be approaching the top of the s-curve for computational and industrial technology, but we are at the bottom left of the biology curve, and now we have the tools to start exploring that space systematically.
Re: If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
#8I think if you just discount all modern innovations then it's easy to say nothing has changed of note. My TV looks better than ever. Should I just discount that as progress because it's still a picture displayed in my living room? If you suggest the iPhone 5 which allows me to get anywhere without planning with turn by turn directions, communicate with family on the road, make dinner reservations, and answer a work r…
> "some of the things we have now are totally amazing and we just don't care to notice"
This is very true: Kasparov is frankly wrong to say the last 'revolutionary' technology was the Apple II back in the 70s. The past thirty years since then have brought many huge technological developments with lasting impact on global society. The internet, mobile telephony, DNA sequencing and profiling...
What Kasparov doesn't seem prepared to accept is that most innovation is iterative. This iteration can be compressed, but even dramatic events like the moon landings were based on decades of research and iterative development.
I just can't take someone seriously who claims there has been no revolutionary tech since 1977. It undermines some of the other points Kasparov is trying to make, particularly around growth and monetary policy.
Re: If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
#9I continue to be surprised at how little attention economists are paying to the role of tight oil supplies in dragging the economy. The 2008 crash was triggered by an oil price that spiked to nearly $150 a barrel in response to strong growth in demand against a flat supply. Since then, every time the economy tries to pick up, the oil price drifts back up to $100/barrel and GDP stagnates.
Re: If Peter Thiel And Garry Kasparov Are Right, Then We're In Trouble
#10I think if you just discount all modern innovations then it's easy to say nothing has changed of note. My TV looks better than ever. Should I just discount that as progress because it's still a picture displayed in my living room? If you suggest the iPhone 5 which allows me to get anywhere without planning with turn by turn directions, communicate with family on the road, make dinner reservations, and answer a work r…
> "some of the things we have now are totally amazing and we just don't care to notice" This is very true: Kasparov is frankly wrong to say the last 'revolutionary' technology was the Apple II back in the 70s. The past thirty years since then have brought many huge technological developments with lasting impact on global society. The internet, mobile telephony, DNA sequencing and profiling... What Kasparov doesn't se…
Kasparov did sound senile when he said that.