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Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

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Re: Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

#71
post #40
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet, the amount of redistribution that's happening has never been higher, far exceeding the era of "94% tax rate on the rich", never mind that nobody actually paid that rate because the tax code was full of exemptions at the time. https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20260221_IRC... https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20260221_IRC...

I don’t see how this graph shows that claim. It says it’s graphing the effect of welfare on income ratios between top 10% vs the bottom 50% then just has an arrow pointing down saying “Stronger redistribution” Where is the connection between the percentage being graphed and whatever their definition of “stronger redistribution” is? And I just realized the second graph includes capital gains for the fiscal income but…

>I don’t see how this graph shows that claim. It says it’s graphing the effect of welfare on income ratios between top 10% vs the bottom 50% then just has an arrow pointing down saying “Stronger redistribution”

The chart is supposed accompany an article, which explains what the metric is:

"""A simple measure of progressivity involves comparing the distribution of income both before and after tax. By this measure America redistributes about twice as much today as in the 1960s (see chart 1). Germany and Japan, the next biggest rich economies, also redistribute a lot more than they used to. So do Britain and Canada. Indeed by our estimate, seven in ten countries have more progressive tax-and-benefit systems than in 1990. The ones that have become less progressive tend to be dysfunctional (Belarus, Eritrea, Haiti) or were exceptionally redistributive to begin with (Norway, Sweden)."""

>And I just realized the second graph includes capital gains for the fiscal income but not for the after tax income? This just seems blatantly misleading with that detail being hidden in an asterisk.

1. If you read the original paper[1], they seem to be doing it for weird economics reasons:

"We then sequentially remove capital gains, which are not in national income"

I don't know enough about economics to dispute this, but given that they bothered to adjust for other factors like imputed rent and "corporation retained earnings", I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt unless there's convincing reason otherwise.

2. On page 16 they have an actual breakdown of all the adjustments, which lists the effect of removing capital gains at between 0.7% to 1.4%. In other words, not enough to change the conclusion.

[1] https://davidsplinter.com/AutenSplinter-Tax_Data_and_Inequal...

Re: Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

#73
post #19

Sounds more like people retire somewhat early - for 25-54yo labor force participation near all time high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 And here is one for 55+yo: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11324230 All is fine

Prime age is meant to filter college kids and retirees which makes sense but it is likely hiding the minor crisis in hiring for college grads. But I agree it's not disastrous just a yellow flag. The 20 year bull market has minted a lot of millionaires amongst the upper middle class and a lot of them are retiring early.

The 20-24 year olds seem to be at roughly the same point as since the great recession. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300036

Worth noting this is people who have a job, it includes the under-employed.

Re: Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

#74

Take an hour off at 2-3pm in any major US city and look at how many people are just milling about. Mostly shopping. There are a lot of people in the US that are not working. Pre-2008 retail was quiet in the middle of the day, now it booms. I can’t comment on if this is a good or bad thing, but I am surprised at how many people are causally walking their dog as I am rushing to compete an essential errand and get back…

I can't speak for anyone else, but I get my errands done at 12 - 3ish.

I work 8 AM - noon, 3 PM - 2 AM. (Exact ranges vary.)

I don't have an office and I've never met most of my coworkers.

I'm exceedingly angry that restaurants and stores are no longer open until midnight. I used to do 11 PM Target shopping, 2 AM Walmart shopping, etc. Nothing is open late anymore, and it sucks.

Re: Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

#75

Sounds more like people retire somewhat early - for 25-54yo labor force participation near all time high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 And here is one for 55+yo: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11324230 All is fine

I did retire somewhat early but also somewhat involuntarily and only after a somewhat fruitless search.

Re: Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

#76

Take an hour off at 2-3pm in any major US city and look at how many people are just milling about. Mostly shopping. There are a lot of people in the US that are not working. Pre-2008 retail was quiet in the middle of the day, now it booms. I can’t comment on if this is a good or bad thing, but I am surprised at how many people are causally walking their dog as I am rushing to compete an essential errand and get back…

You realize not everyone works a normal 9 to 5 right, you honestly think every person shopping are unemployed? Are tech workers this deeply out of touch with normal people?

Re: Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

#77
post #67

Take an hour off at 2-3pm in any major US city and look at how many people are just milling about. Mostly shopping. There are a lot of people in the US that are not working. Pre-2008 retail was quiet in the middle of the day, now it booms. I can’t comment on if this is a good or bad thing, but I am surprised at how many people are causally walking their dog as I am rushing to compete an essential errand and get back…

Asking because I'm genuinely curious myself, how much of this is unemployment vs the fact that so many more people work from home now compared to pre-2008? Many of those that WFH work a more flexible schedule and probably structure their days a lot differently than 20+ years ago.

Yes, remote and part-time. Shopping on Monday afternoons is enjoyable.

Re: Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you must pay tribute in the form of thousands of dollars in property taxes. Your first born child may also be acceptable.

€98/yr Not everywhere is America, fellow hacker.

To be fair, we were talking about Capitalism. There are few places more capitalistic than America currently.

But wow, 98€ is about how much it takes for me to take my family out to lunch at a fast food restaurant.

Re: Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

#79
post #76

Take an hour off at 2-3pm in any major US city and look at how many people are just milling about. Mostly shopping. There are a lot of people in the US that are not working. Pre-2008 retail was quiet in the middle of the day, now it booms. I can’t comment on if this is a good or bad thing, but I am surprised at how many people are causally walking their dog as I am rushing to compete an essential errand and get back…

You realize not everyone works a normal 9 to 5 right, you honestly think every person shopping are unemployed? Are tech workers this deeply out of touch with normal people?

I think a lot of people forget this. Similar to how the retired/disabled people in my life forget how busy life with a job can be.

At the gas stations I worked at, the shifts were 7AM-3PM, 3PM-11PM, and 11PM-7AM.

I used to do a lot of things at abnormal times. What does a quick beer after work look like when you're done at 7AM?

I also don't know many unemployed people cruising around malls looking for ways to spend money.

Re: Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

#80

Sounds more like people retire somewhat early - for 25-54yo labor force participation near all time high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 And here is one for 55+yo: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11324230 All is fine

I think you are grossly overestimating the number of people >55 years old who free willingly retire early because of having enough new worth. Already millenials' CVs are written off in recruitment pipelines.

> millenials' CVs are written off in recruitment pipelines

I think you've got something wrong here, "millennials" refers to people currently between 30 and 45 and are surely the least likely to be discriminated based on either age or inexperience.

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