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Why jet engines aren't made in China

aakash.substack.com

131–140 of 342 posts

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#131
post #2

This is a strange article. I did not find anything that is a blocker for China. China is a relative new comer to jet engines and this technology is tightly guarded by incumbents and needs time to mature. If China can master nuclear, space, chips, it seems a bit stretch to say they it is the Jer engines where they fail.

I even thought that the example of automobiles proved the jet engine analogy wrong. Sure, automobiles aren’t as complex as a jet engine, but they’re still complex, especially the internal combustion variants. Something like 10 years ago we were laughing at videos of Chinese cars spectacularly failing crash tests, and now China is selling to very heavily regulated markets. Same deal with things like high speed rail.

Very surprisingly it's never mentioned that car turbos have very similar requirements - spin at 10K+ RPM at 10000K+ for or tens of thousands of hours with little expected maintenance.

They are often made of superalloys, yet regular cars, down to econoboxes costing 20-30k or less have them, and are made by the millions.

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#132
post #121
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All the money and talent in the world can't replicate real users generating real data that you can use to improve Basically, China excellence in EVs and Solar was driven by the market being new. It's hard (almost impossible?) to outrank an incumbent very entrenched in a big market. You need a paradigm shift (ie: iphone vs nokia) to make the change.

Or good spies who steal the secrets + few years of subsidies to give runway for the new companies

You can steal ‘know’ but you can’t so easily steal ‘knowhow’. I could easily find all the information that I theoretically need to make a wooden chair. But to actually make it successfully would require years of practice at carpentry. At first, I can expect results comparable to Homer Simpson’s spice rack.

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#133
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they have excellent air defenses so it seems unlikely someone with superior planes is going to be able to go in and bomb them into submission . You seem to believe that China's military ambitions are purely defensive, but that is not the case. They have grandiose expansionist ambitions which include basically the entire South China Sea - which in spite of its name is shared by many countries. Not to mention their e…

But interestingly their ambitions are "local". This has a large impact on the machines and materials required. In other words, let's says the Chinese military jet engine is 15 years behind is say fuel economy. Which reduces range. If the conflict is local that doesn't matter overmuch. Equally operating from land, not carriers, reduces reach, but if what you want to reach is local then that doesn't matter. If China ha…

In a military context, the main technological gaps relating to jet engines are supercruise and maintenance hours. Both are potentially quite relevant in a ‘local’ conflict.

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#134
post #99

The more parsimonious explanation is that commercial jet engine production is downstream of commercial airbody production and China's currently limited by COMAC's scaling woes. All the money and talent in the world can't replicate real users generating real data that you can use to improve. I'd argue the opposite that jet engines have a market structure that's uniquely terrible for traditional free market societies.…

> The free market fundamentally doesn't have a good response to this problem The market may not for the most capital-intensive businesses, but US laws at least attempt to address the situation. In Boeing's case, for example, the McDonnell-Douglas merger likely could have been blocked under existing anticompetitive laws. The US's longstanding refusal to apply antiticompetition law causes a number of harms to consumers…

Condit would probably still set in motion the moves that enabled the rot - moving HQ, unrealistic targets for 7X7 (now known as 787), selling off portions of Boeing to skim just the cream at the top, and so on.

Not letting Boeing grab McDonnell-Douglas military projects might have stopped some of that, but it might have also accelerated it.

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly this is a good thing. I can endure buggy software but I don’t want to deal with buggy planes. Regulatory pressure is a market force and a useful one too. There’s a huge difference between ship fast and ship right - the latter one requires deep pockets and willingness to commit to ongoing risk. People always say big Pharma and aviation and such are oligopolies, and that’s bad, but they rarely see the capital…

> I can endure buggy software but I don’t want to deal with buggy planes A plane built for resilience against defective engine components would be very different from the airliners we fly today. I would assume more engines for redundancy, better protection against catastrophic failure, different designs to allow engines to function even if parts flew out, and so on. It’s an interesting design exercise to build from r…

Lol.

Do you think todays aircraft are not designed with the idea that the engine can fail?

And if you have unreliable components do you think redundancy is going to save you?

And lets be real - there already exist a aerospace arena where you have a higher number of CAT-events - it's called the military. And they deal with it by having a parachute for each passenger..

No - in effect building jet-engines (that are commercially viable i.e. fuel and efficeny) is not a easy to disrupt business. And the cost of entering it would be - high. And the benefit, well less obvious.

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#136
post #121
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All the money and talent in the world can't replicate real users generating real data that you can use to improve Basically, China excellence in EVs and Solar was driven by the market being new. It's hard (almost impossible?) to outrank an incumbent very entrenched in a big market. You need a paradigm shift (ie: iphone vs nokia) to make the change.

Or good spies who steal the secrets + few years of subsidies to give runway for the new companies

There may be a fraction of this, but the great thing about science is that it is verifiable.

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#137

This is also why China has heavily invested in high-speed rail. Even today, many people who are influenced by persistent misinformation and years of criticism toward China continue to question its high-speed rail system, asking why China doesn’t follow the U.S. model of relying on cars and airplanes instead. But China’s limited ability to rapidly scale commercial aviation means it would have to purchase large numbers…

China has invested into high-speed rail for the same reason that Japan, France and Spain did: the big cities tend to be in the "sweet spot" distance of 250-750 km from one another, which is very comfortable to ride in a high-speed train.

Distances over 1000 km are already favorable for passenger jets. Even in today's Western Europe, there just aren't that many really long distance trains (by which I mean something like Amsterdam-Barcelona or Copenhagen-Milan).

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#138

The more parsimonious explanation is that commercial jet engine production is downstream of commercial airbody production and China's currently limited by COMAC's scaling woes. All the money and talent in the world can't replicate real users generating real data that you can use to improve. I'd argue the opposite that jet engines have a market structure that's uniquely terrible for traditional free market societies.…

> The free market fundamentally doesn't have a good response to this problem, excess capital is taken out of these companies during good times and then they run to governments seeking bailouts during bad times but governments don't know how to mandate good corporate governance.

Sounds like the free market hasn't been tried, a key plank of the free market on the supply side is that incompetent managers have to go bankrupt and lose their capital or otherwise get squeezed out. If the government is going to bail people out then obviously the companies will take adopt a ridiculously risky management strategy because they get the upside and dodge the downside, so they just have to maximise the potential upside at any cost. No surprise if after getting a bailout people do exactly what they did that led to the bailout until they need another bailout. Why change?

The trick to "mandating" of good corporate governance is not to bail them out. Then at least the corporations will be governed in a way that they aren't likely to go bankrupt. Maybe even make things people want and sell them at a profit.

> here's a few industries where structurally, companies can only exit the market but it's almost impossible for a new company to enter. Airframes, jet engines, CPU manufacturing, lithography etc.

Is there actual evidence for this, or are the companies involved just doing a good enough job that the market doesn't see a need for new entrants? Because it actually seems a bit implausible that these technologies could just disappear or even become less available under a free market. What we actually see is the likes of NVidia or ASML, where other players can't catch up because the market leader is just pushing the cutting edge forward too quickly (spare a thought for Intel, who was the unbeatable colossus once).

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#139

The more parsimonious explanation is that commercial jet engine production is downstream of commercial airbody production and China's currently limited by COMAC's scaling woes. All the money and talent in the world can't replicate real users generating real data that you can use to improve. I'd argue the opposite that jet engines have a market structure that's uniquely terrible for traditional free market societies.…

> The free market fundamentally doesn't have a good response to this problem

Free markets don't exist.

The problem isn't what you think it is. It's Dunning-Kruger effect and 99% of the population is living it loud and proud.

Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China

#140
post #121
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All the money and talent in the world can't replicate real users generating real data that you can use to improve Basically, China excellence in EVs and Solar was driven by the market being new. It's hard (almost impossible?) to outrank an incumbent very entrenched in a big market. You need a paradigm shift (ie: iphone vs nokia) to make the change.

Or good spies who steal the secrets + few years of subsidies to give runway for the new companies

You mean like when the NSA is spying on Airbus for Boeing? :)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32542140

(it's particularly hilarious (in the bad way), that German secret services were participating in spying as well)

Thankfully some countries (here: Brazil) have some spine to react to it: https://www.reuters.com/article/business/saab-wins-brazil-je...

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