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Fable 5 is Back

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Re: Fable 5 is Back

#351
post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So... it IS China, not just companies in China. And why would the CCP want to give out open weights, hmm? Because they are all kindness and love? No. It is just their approach to counter dominance in the space by Western frontier labs. No need to make moral attributions..it is everything, and I mean everything, about Great Power Competition.

That is literally the point of world trade buddy... lmao Its just funny how there is some scary boogeyman around China. You do realise the idiotic west gave china everything - from know-how, techniques to IP by benefitting from lower costs of production? What they are doing is pretty fair game.

No,it's not just like world trade. It's world trade within strategic good, assets, and, capabilities relevant to national security...e.g. critical minerals, high end chips, and artificial intelligence, and others. Not all world trade is as central to national security, and is only relevant to national security in aggregate. I do agree that the U.S. made bad choices in terms of over-reliance on Chinese supply chains. Too much credence was given to the idea that capitalism would democratize China in the absence of other supporting factors/culture.

Re: Fable 5 is Back

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These days an LLM + a harness can one-shot playable Minecraft clones. This tech has come a long way since it was first released.

You are saying: it turns out that one-shot playable Minecraft clones are actually pretty simple. Maybe it seemed a hard problem to programmers, but why not just say that the verifiable-rewards training has shown that their skill is unusually simple?

Can't wait to see what unusually simple Erdos problem LLMs will expose next, hiding in plain sight for decades and seemingly intractable for professional mathematicians who weren't aware just how simple the problem was.

Re: Fable 5 is Back

#353
post #136
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I locked my default model to opus 4.6 around the time of the nerfs. Such better results compared to 4.7+ That's enshittification for ya I guess

The claims of 4.6 or 4.7 being superior genuinely make me laugh. Adapt your workflow if needed and use the superior model instead of just kneejerk believing they actually enshittified a model with zero evidence except vibes on an undeterministic model output. Jesus.

It was quite clear 4.7 was a dumbed down high efficiency model they put out in a rush to handle the capacity issues they were having at the time. I've experienced myself substantial degradation on basic reasoning tasks, which were fixed in 4.8.

Re: Fable 5 is Back

#354

I never strongly considered open weight models before getting throttled all the time from Claude. I bought a 1 year pro subscription but my bet is I won’t renew it. The Claude “usage” UX is very bad. At the most basic level, there is no way to know what you’re actually paying for if you buy a “pro” plan or a “max” plan. Dario will take your $200 but he will give you a secret number of tokens in return. I have no way…

You can easily figure this out though.

A 20x plan gives you between 8-10B tokens per week (99+% of which are cache_read), and has been for the past ~3 months (since I started tracking it). I have not seen any quota movement despite their claims to be raising or lowering usage limits.

Re: Fable 5 is Back

#355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whichever firm is distilling the frontier models and releasing the weights is doing god's work. I'll forever thank them for that.

They're great but in fact it is state financed economic war against the democratic world.

That could easily change if the frontier labs would release their (N-1)th model or (N-2)th model as open weights. Unfortunately, they won't.

Re: Fable 5 is Back

#356
I'm trying it right now for a side project of mine, compared to Opus it is effectively better at following instructions and somehow has better "depth" when reasoning on complex tasks. However, if it will not be part of subscriptions, I will not use it anymore.

Re: Fable 5 is Back

#357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are saying: it turns out that one-shot playable Minecraft clones are actually pretty simple. Maybe it seemed a hard problem to programmers, but why not just say that the verifiable-rewards training has shown that their skill is unusually simple?

I am saying 3 years ago there wasn't a snowballs chance in hell I could one shot a playable Minecraft clone, and there has never been a snowballs chance in hell a human developer could do so in 45 minutes. The difficulty of the task and human performance on that task hasn't changed. LLMs performance on that task has changed dramatically.

it could almost certainly regurgitate something like minetest

its in the training data, probably many times, and it was then, too

Re: Fable 5 is Back

#358
post #348

With this Fable release my goodwill for Anthropic went down. "Generous and exciting" were my thoughts when I bought the $100, then upgraded to the $200 sub last year. Now I get big FOMO because I won't be able to pay for Fable once off the sub, and I got the global limit reset at the same time as my weekly reset (Codex coupon for limit reset feels way better btw). The all-you-can-eat buffet put the nice items into a…

Codex is more generous with their subscribers because they are second place, and have to climb the reputation ladder. I suspect if OpenAI was in Anthropic's market position they too would have tighter sub limits, gate-keep where their oauth tokens can be used tighter, and play games that move users towards per-token spend.

> because they are second place

In popularity. Which is crazy because they are first when it comes to everything else for quite some time and Fable isn't changing that all that much because of muzzling.

Re: Fable 5 is Back

#359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. The "good guys" are the ones who provide permanent value: open weight models, hardware we can afford, purchase and own. The good guys offer sovereignty . The "you'll buy intelligence from us on a meter" rent seekers are technofeudalists. Just a bunch of "you'll own nothing and you'll be happy" oligarchs who must be resisted at all costs. Anthropic had a reputation for ethics at first but it quickly became clear i…

The purpose is the destabilization and discrediting of democracy. The Beijing state, in concert with Putin and ex-Khamenei, has no other purpose but to prove there is no democratic alternative. Sure, it turns out you get free things as e.g. one got free RT America.

> The purpose is the destabilization and discrediting of democracy.

Unless they made US elect trump it's hard to see how they might be damaging democracy more than the democracy damages itself.

Re: Fable 5 is Back

#360
It doesn't matter. The damage is done.

As a company I can not trust putting large sums of investment into using a product that may disappear the next day due to a government deciding at a whim that it should not longer be available. No contract can protect me from this and I doubt I would find an insurance that would cover this risk.

This forces me the build fallback solutions and diversify most likely resulting in not using the tech from the "high risk" provider.

Building a product on top of something like this is actually worse than building a product on top of Meta like Zynga did.

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