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Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

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Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#331

Post by naturalmovement »

nl wrote: post #188
naturalmovement wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dario's job is to be a cheerleader. He likely does not have the domain knowledge nor is authorized to be the recipient of such a letter. And that's ok. His role is to hire others competent in export matters. It's a learning experience for them.

I think you are missing some context here. One of the contributing factors that led to this control in the first place was that the commerce department couldn't get Dario on a call immediately: "Then White House started reaching out to Anthropic to speak with Dario Amodei, who was at a wellness retreat.... When Amodei was finally available past 1pm, he had three tense phone calls with a combo of ppl including Cairncr…

That link really sheds light on things.

It's shocking to me that Anthropic seems to be run with the same managerial chaos as depicted in early seasons of Entourage.

Dario may be a genius, but when it comes to running a big business — which involves dealing with governments and regulators — it's like he just fell off a turnip truck.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#332

Post by reacharavindh »

drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

All this will fly until a competitor from outside the US releases a “freedom” model that is even 90% as capable as Fable was without its shackles.

But, as a frustrated EU resident lamenting a lack of European option(Mistral is just not competitive enough), I will spread my money towards the Chinese models as well. Thank you Murica! You achieved your soft power by pushing us towards the Chinese :-)

This protectionism and hypocrisy (free markets and freedom!! Until it is us who needs to practice what we preach) is so tiring. I wish European nations would come together closer and put their differences aside and realise larger things together. Become the new power that the US is clearly stumbling away from being.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#333

Post by nl »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #321
dgellow wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No? They are actively in the race, what are you talking about

By "the race" I mean "the frontier, and the race to superintelligence." They are categorically behind. The best they can do with the capacity they have is to distill US models, but that doesn't enable them to reach the scale needed to leapfrog the US in the race to superintelligence.

It isn't distillation that gave GLM 5.2 it's jump in performance.

To quote Pat Toulme:

There’s a big misconception about how GLM 5.2 was trained. Yes, they distilled Claude and GPT 5.5 — but distillation is not how they matched Opus quality. Distillation only fixed the cold start problem in RL.

RLing an agentic coding model isn’t rocket science. In simplified terms:

1. RL needs trajectories — rollouts where the model actually completed a task in some env

2. No successful trajectory on a task = zero gradient = you can’t RL it. This is the cold start problem

3. Distillation solves it. You seed your model with knowledge from a smarter one (Claude, GPT) on tasks it can’t do yet

4. Now it produces positive trajectories on those tasks

5. RL on those trajectories and hill climb agentic coding

6. At that point you no longer need to distill and can solely hill climb RL to better models

This is an interesting curve. I’d argue it’s harder to get to Opus 4.8 from scratch than to go from Opus 4.8 → Fable/Mythos tier.

GLM 5.2 is already producing positive trajectories, so they have plenty to RL on — they’ll keep climbing to Mythos quality without distilling any further. They no longer need American models.

https://x.com/PatrickToulme/status/2069211575437627743

Not exactly sure what the finish line in "the race to superintelligence" looks like and even moreso it's unclear why you think being there first is a critical benefit.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#334

Post by amoss »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #233
K0balt wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This x 10 . I don’t understand how people are saying you can’t use LLMs to get crazy productivity gains. If you can’t write quality code with LLMs at ludicrous speed, you’re holding it wrong. You will have occasional bad days and regressions. But overall you’re still going to be able to 4x your progress.

I measured an ~8x increase in my project's commit count after AI, and I'm painstakingly reading, reviewing, understanding and editing everything the models write. It's gotten to the point I'm trying to slow down in order to let the new knowledge crystallize. I'm manually writing articles about what I'm doing as I go. I can only imagine what people are doing at their jobs with unlimited token budgets.

Kind of weird how LoC has become a metric for people to chase again.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#335

Post by nl »

naturalmovement wrote: post #331
nl wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are missing some context here. One of the contributing factors that led to this control in the first place was that the commerce department couldn't get Dario on a call immediately: "Then White House started reaching out to Anthropic to speak with Dario Amodei, who was at a wellness retreat.... When Amodei was finally available past 1pm, he had three tense phone calls with a combo of ppl including Cairncr…

That link really sheds light on things. It's shocking to me that Anthropic seems to be run with the same managerial chaos as depicted in early seasons of Entourage . Dario may be a genius, but when it comes to running a big business — which involves dealing with governments and regulators — it's like he just fell off a turnip truck.

Yeah, broadly agree. See my comment on the other story: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48742711

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#337

Post by rightbyte »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #282
drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

The EU has totally and utterly failed when it comes to frontier AI. They are out of the running, they won't catch up in time for superintelligence. There literally is not enough compute for sale in the world for them to do so. They crippled their own domestic entities with the AI Act. (see the Mistral CEO's rant.) If you want to use frontier models until then, you're gonna use what's available, and that's US models.

Not doing anything and avoiding the mania as much as possible seem to be a winning move.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#339

Post by rob74 »

miki123211 wrote: post #304
Aurornis wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. The switching costs of changing LLM providers is as low as it gets. All the individuals and startups I know try different models all of the time, even down to the level of choosing which provider to use based on the task. Bigger companies move slower but only beca…

Exactly! Even if you won't be able to use some model tomorrow, you can still make money by using it today! And in the age of limited compute, spiky workloads and constant outages, building a mechanism to fallback to a weaker model when your primary choice isn't available is smart anyway.

For many, that fallback mechanism is simply called Cursor - soon to be owned by Elon Musk. Which opens up a similar but slightly different can of worms...

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#340

Post by [deleted] »

softwaredoug wrote: post #123

The real problem in all this is lack of predictability. The White House is just making it up as it goes along. Investors, customers don’t know what the process is and can’t plan. In the end, we need actual laws that tell the market what kinds of models get paused / analyzed, how long that pause can be, etc. Otherwise there’s no standard and it will be easily abused and prevent investment in US AI companies.

[deleted]
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