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How employment changes when firms adopt generative AI
21–30 of 59 posts
Re: How employment changes when firms adopt generative AI
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
The claim is and always has been that automation increases net jobs. There's never been an automation revolution that worked otherwise. The counter claim that LLMs were special for some reason has never been supported. And a lot of its proponents have other axes to grind, like UBI, Socialism, Communism etc. It would suit their worldview for this time to be different, and so thats the message they push.
I'm not entirely sure that's the claim or conclusion. Like they said the companies increasing headcount are also being pumped full of $$$. That's a non-permanent state of affairs because it's heavily fueled by speculation about possible future scenarios which may or may not come to pass. I think the bigger conclusion is that LLMs are, for now, having a minimal effect on the labor market. And I think this makes sense.…
I't has been very good as suppressing wages.
Re: How employment changes when firms adopt generative AI
#23What is the value of saying this when ChatGPT was released in 2022? There’s no way there’s enough data to make any meaningful extrapolation about anything.
The current narrative is that AI is displacing jobs.
Similar to the current post there’s just not enough data to be conclusive.
Re: How employment changes when firms adopt generative AI
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
The claim is and always has been that automation increases net jobs. There's never been an automation revolution that worked otherwise. The counter claim that LLMs were special for some reason has never been supported. And a lot of its proponents have other axes to grind, like UBI, Socialism, Communism etc. It would suit their worldview for this time to be different, and so thats the message they push.
That’s not supported by the evidence. Current rates of employment are well below historic levels. In preindustrial societies nearly everyone was working to support themselves and their families, these days a huge percentage of the population is in education, retirement, prison, disability, etc. The only way jobs have kept up with automation is when you ignore population growth, but more people naturally increases the…
> That’s not supported by the evidence. Current rates of employment are well below historic levels.
What evidence?
Wasn’t employment in engineering down before all this could’ve gotten enough widespread traction to actually displace jobs?
Re: How employment changes when firms adopt generative AI
#25Skeptical of the study approach, but it is an entirely possible scenario if we don’t hit AGI. Many of the non-tech companies are only now starting to invest into AI. For many of them, AI might unlock new business approaches. Eg a company switches to real time pricing. Great, but suddenly you need people swapping price tags. Or you launch a project to replace paper price tags with electronic tags. Those need to be reg…
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Re: How employment changes when firms adopt generative AI
#26Too soon.
Re: How employment changes when firms adopt generative AI
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
The claim is and always has been that automation increases net jobs. There's never been an automation revolution that worked otherwise. The counter claim that LLMs were special for some reason has never been supported. And a lot of its proponents have other axes to grind, like UBI, Socialism, Communism etc. It would suit their worldview for this time to be different, and so thats the message they push.
That’s not supported by the evidence. Current rates of employment are well below historic levels. In preindustrial societies nearly everyone was working to support themselves and their families, these days a huge percentage of the population is in education, retirement, prison, disability, etc. The only way jobs have kept up with automation is when you ignore population growth, but more people naturally increases the…
>Current rates of employment are well below historic levels.
Ignoring for a second that net jobs and employment rates aren't really the same thing.
>In preindustrial societies nearly everyone was working to support themselves and their families, these days a huge percentage of the population is in education which may be investing in their future but isn’t directly producing anything. Retirement as a percentage of the population similarly exploded etc.
The first thing anyone does in employment statistics is remove non participants. Bringing them back in is weird. If you don't need or want a job its kind of a non sequitur to be lumped in with the employment seeking population. AI doomers aren't suggesting that its going to gainfully retire the population.
>preindustrial societies
Pre industrial societies can be loosely grouped into "People farming to make 3-5 times the food they need" and "city dwellers". Now that a single person can farm for 100s of people, we do have hundreds more city jobs going. We dont have a huge number of out of work farmers sitting around doing nothing. Likewise, Banks employ more people after introducing ATM's than before. Likewise cloud didnt leave IT people lining up at the dole office, but it just moved them from cleaning up on prem messes to cleaning up cloud messes and onprem messes.
Re: How employment changes when firms adopt generative AI
#28So, more skynet leads to more real jobs? I am confused. Wasn't the initial claim that AI kills all jobs? I feel the claim right now is not really correct. One needs to do a thorough analysis of the whole job market across different countries, say, over 5 years. Or at the least 3 years but very complete and unbiased either way.
The claim is and always has been that automation increases net jobs. There's never been an automation revolution that worked otherwise. The counter claim that LLMs were special for some reason has never been supported. And a lot of its proponents have other axes to grind, like UBI, Socialism, Communism etc. It would suit their worldview for this time to be different, and so thats the message they push.
there never has been a nuclear war, so why do some people worry about it, I dont understand, probably they have some axes to grind
Re: How employment changes when firms adopt generative AI
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
That’s not supported by the evidence. Current rates of employment are well below historic levels. In preindustrial societies nearly everyone was working to support themselves and their families, these days a huge percentage of the population is in education, retirement, prison, disability, etc. The only way jobs have kept up with automation is when you ignore population growth, but more people naturally increases the…
>Current rates of employment are well below historic levels. Ignoring for a second that net jobs and employment rates aren't really the same thing. >In preindustrial societies nearly everyone was working to support themselves and their families, these days a huge percentage of the population is in education which may be investing in their future but isn’t directly producing anything. Retirement as a percentage of the…
> Likewise, Banks employ more people after introducing ATM's than before.
that's a common trope, and its both true and false
true: more bank employees after ATM's
false: less bank employees after smartphone banking
Re: How employment changes when firms adopt generative AI
#30Skeptical of the study approach, but it is an entirely possible scenario if we don’t hit AGI. Many of the non-tech companies are only now starting to invest into AI. For many of them, AI might unlock new business approaches. Eg a company switches to real time pricing. Great, but suddenly you need people swapping price tags. Or you launch a project to replace paper price tags with electronic tags. Those need to be reg…
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That’s because Aldi /did/ the upgrade…?