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Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1852)

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31–40 of 72 posts

Re: Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1852)

#31
post #7

My intro to psychology classes was one of the most valuable classes I ever took, just with the way it systematically shattered my own notion of how much I could trust my own notions of perception and thought to be a rational and accurate reflection of reality. I definitely had a notion of how irrational “people” could be before that, but of course I somehow thought I was above all that.

Human beings are rational animals as such, but our exercise of that rationality can be quite weak and subject to character flaws and bad habits, and requires cultivation to refine, purify, and actualize.

Of course, we also must be careful here because you're using your own faculties to judge the content of the psychology class (as were the psychologists who produces the content you were learning). Skepticism falls into special pleading, because in order to take a skeptical stance toward the human intellect as such, one must somehow transcend the human intellect to be able to make those sorts of judgements [0].

I would also not say that we are inherently and constitutionally irrational. I would say rather - to use the old cliche - that the intellect's facility is like a muscle that needs to develop, to grow, and to be conditioned to become strong. I would also say that some have greater capacity and potential on constitutional grounds.

Furthermore, the cultivation of virtue is essential, as errors of reasoning are shaped by our vices and not just cognitive limitations or whatever. Indeed, the more intellectual power someone has, the more essential virtue becomes, lest the intellect destroy itself with rationalizations and abuse [1].

[0] Of course, what constitutes correct reasoning is a teleological matter. Otherwise, there is no reason to favor one conclusion over another or any conclusion at all.

[1] A coward of high intelligence will the rationalize powerful. In Chomsky's view, for instance, the overwhelming majority of intellectuals have historically acted as servants of power, rationalizing the status quo, and manufacturing consent. Or as Adam Zamoyski said pithily when discussion Napoleon's relationship with French intelligentsia, intellectuals are mostly tarts for power.

Re: Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1852)

#32
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but it is about the, very expected, shitshow caused by the AI hype. When companies think cramming AI in any random place is a magic bullet for replacing workers, shit breaks. Because AI is dumb af. LLMs are just the shittiest of the ways to do it. Do you honestly think this particular "cram AI in everything" isn't related to the current AI hype? Or that AI applications and companies providing things like this won…

Nah, the kind of AI they were using has been around for a long time (AlexNet is 13 years old), and before that they would have used classical computer vision. The only thing that happened here is that they didn't check it worked before firing everyone. That can happen with any automated system, AI or not.

I am referring to the hype causing it to be adopted now instead of a decade ago, not the specific implementation. The hype causing people to adopt AI of all kinds hastily without proper validation.

Re: Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1852)

#33
post #23

Excellent book. The high point for me was the enterprising fellow who set up a stall in London during the South Sea Bubble (the original bubble!), allowing people to invest in "An undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is." People lined up for a couple of days to give the fellow their money...after which the fellow disappeared, never to be seen again. No lies detected!

Wasn’t tbe Tulip Bubble the original bubble?

Yep, tulips 1630s, south sea 1720s.

Re: Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1852)

#34
post #14

This is a fun book, but it famously embellishes, exaggerates, and sensationalizes the tulip bubble [1]. The efficient markets people obviously don't like the story, but there doesn't seem to be much evidence that it happened on the same scale that Mackay portrays it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania#Modern_views

>Peter Garber argues that the trade in common bulbs "was no more than a meaningless winter drinking game, played by a plague-ridden population that made use of the vibrant tulip market."

So basically, it was the GameStop of the 1630s. Humans never change.

Re: Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1852)

#35
post #23

Excellent book. The high point for me was the enterprising fellow who set up a stall in London during the South Sea Bubble (the original bubble!), allowing people to invest in "An undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is." People lined up for a couple of days to give the fellow their money...after which the fellow disappeared, never to be seen again. No lies detected!

Wasn’t tbe Tulip Bubble the original bubble?

Yes, but the term "Bubble" comes from the South Sea Bubble.

Re: Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1852)

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why my favorite book is Thinking, Fast & Slow. It blew my mind and totally made me think about almost everything differently. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow

The content on "priming" (significant pillar of the book) has collapsed as part of the reproducibility crisis in psychology. More here: https://replicationindex.com/2017/02/02/reconstruction-of-a-...

As someone who used priming heavily at Google, and its wide use in social networks to billions in revenue. I’m gonna go with the academics trying to take this down are BS.

Adam Curtis even suggests lightly that the takedown of priming in academia was paid for to bury its actual effectiveness (and liability by implication)

Re: Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1852)

#37

Interestingly, Charles Mackay, the author of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, was himself one of the most ardent cheerleaders for the Railway Mania [0] "urging people to put their money into the railways and pooh-poohing those who were concerned." and "He had become famous by mocking the bubbles of the past - but had rather less to say about the far more serious bubble that he himself had he…

I happened to read Trollope's The Way We Live Now, which is a fantastic take on the railway mania, at the height of the dot com bubble. Really increased the enjoyment to read about it and see it unfold in real time.

Re: Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1852)

#40
This book is an interesting chronicle of financial bubble history, but a far more distilled and actionable understanding of crowd psychology is Gustav Le Bonn's "The Crowd - A Study of the popular Mind" (1895): https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/445
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