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South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

arstechnica.com

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Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

#51

Post by jdw64 »

whatever1 wrote: post #4

I wonder how Germany missed the semi manufacturing train? They had literally everything: universities, manufacturing culture, expertise and supporting supply chains, cash. I forgot, they also had ASML, freaking next door!

Realistically, when it comes to the semiconductor market, there aren't many viable options outside of East Asia. I don't mean this in the sense that East Asians were somehow "chosen," but rather that the semiconductor industry inherently requires a large number of highly educated employees working together. The problem is that the working hours inevitably end up being very long. If you actually go work at one of those facilities, you have to wear a "cleanroom suit" (bunny suit), and it's physically demanding. What I'm saying is, you need highly educated personnel who can be mobilized at any time when a problem breaks out in the middle of the night, and who can be hired at relatively low cost. East Asia has a massive educational infrastructure — schools are very large-scale and the system is extremely well-developed — making it hard for other regions to compete. And indeed, the average working hours in countries that do semiconductor manufacturing are extremely long

In other words, it's an industry where you have to grind white-collar workers as if they were blue-collar laborers.

Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

#52

Post by DennisP »

yalogin wrote: post #25

Why is the whole world jumping on to humanoid robots? What am I not seeing that requires this level of investment in it?

For the optimistic case, read this piece by RethinkX:

https://www.rethinkx.com/blog/rethinkx/the-disruption-of-lab...

(Fwiw, >20 years ago RethinkX correctly projected the exponential cost declines of solar and batteries, when everybody else was drawing straight lines.)

Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

#53

Post by Schiendelman »

jayd16 wrote: post #47
Schiendelman wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't need to be at a consumer price point first, it needs to replace a human at an existing warehouse or manufacturing role first, and that's achievable in the next two years at this point. When you have arms that can reach into the dishwasher, you're also going to want them to put away your dishes. And so suddenly they need to get up high. And you're not going to have a SECOND set of arms at your washer/dryer…

Why not buy a second set of arms instead of legs or just a set a wheels?

I feel like if I write two paragraphs, nobody reads the second one...

Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

#54

Post by ElFitz »

dolebirchwood wrote: post #12

Why humanoid? Surely there must be a superior physical form factor than one mimicking human anatomy. Is it just supposed to be more psychologically acceptable?

> Why humanoid? Surely there must be a superior physical form factor than one mimicking human anatomy.

There probably (certainly) is. But if you want to build a multi-purpose platform, you’ll soon be faced with a dumb challenge: nearly all interfaces (door knobs, taps, electric switches, cutlery, sponges, every single button out there, pillow cases, wrenches, hammers, signs…) are made for humans. Placed at human hand level. At human eye level.

Nearly all environments (houses, streets, sidewalks, factory floors, offices, toilets, bathtubs,…) are made for humans. Wide enough and tall enough (or short enough, for bathtubs) to accommodate human bodies.

So until we can find one or more form-factors superior enough to justify we adapt everything around it or them, betting that the easiest way to build a single multi-purpose platform able to do most things (and not n platforms for n+ use cases) is to borrow the shape most things are made for wouldn’t surprise me. Plus, you get a wider market.

And then, once you have happy-ish customers, figure out which of these human attributes and shapes aren’t actually needed to do the job.

Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

#55

Post by scheme271 »

kart23 wrote: post #35
yalogin wrote: post #25

Why is the whole world jumping on to humanoid robots? What am I not seeing that requires this level of investment in it?

automating repetitive physical work doesn’t appeal to you?

Sure, but I'm not sure humanoid robots is the best form factor for this. E.g. something with a wheeled base makes movement calculations a lot easier since you don't need to deal with balance while moving.

Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

#56

Post by timerol »

GuB-42 wrote: post #17

The title sounds to me like: I am going to spend $1000 in groceries and dance lessons. That is, two very different things lumped together. Memory chips are like groceries, essential commodity parts, a no-nonsense investment. Humanoid robots are like dance lessons, it is cool, it is sexy, and it may pay off in the future, but the value is much less certain.

$585B on new fabs, $357B on AI data centers, and $5.8B on humanoid robots. One of those numbers is not like the others

Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

#57

Post by Schiendelman »

HerbManic wrote: post #50
Schiendelman wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humanoid robots that can do manual labor are going to be make or break for wealthy economies in the next two decades. Aging populations need help, and most successful nations do not have enough young people to do half the work they need done.

This is the path that Japan tried to go down and it hasn't worked out yet, but we have also solved a lot more of the technical issues since they began. going to be interesting to see if we pull it off this time.

I think they mostly tried to go down this path before we had the transformer. With VLA models, or really now "Large Behavior Models", what's possible has changed dramatically. I've seen robot arms fold laundry now. Textile work is insanely hard, now it's just putting a lot of learned behavior together.

Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

#58

Post by scheme271 »

Schiendelman wrote: post #42
jayd16 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the argument but its honestly ridiculous in my eyes. How about a set of arms that can reach into dishwasher and stack dishes and a washer/dryer to fold laundry... Except even without solving the bipedal movement, that doesn't exist at a consumer price point. Why are we pretending the hardest version of this is close to existing?

It doesn't need to be at a consumer price point first, it needs to replace a human at an existing warehouse or manufacturing role first, and that's achievable in the next two years at this point. When you have arms that can reach into the dishwasher, you're also going to want them to put away your dishes. And so suddenly they need to get up high. And you're not going to have a SECOND set of arms at your washer/dryer…

Stair climbing systems that work using wheels exist. Google stair climbing wheelchairs for a few examples.

Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

#59

Post by Aerroon »

yalogin wrote: post #25

Why is the whole world jumping on to humanoid robots? What am I not seeing that requires this level of investment in it?

All current jobs have human input and output interfaces. If you want to sell new technology then it will be easiest to accommodate the already existing infrastructure.

Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots

#60

Post by [deleted] »

Schiendelman wrote: post #40
GuB-42 wrote: post #17

The title sounds to me like: I am going to spend $1000 in groceries and dance lessons. That is, two very different things lumped together. Memory chips are like groceries, essential commodity parts, a no-nonsense investment. Humanoid robots are like dance lessons, it is cool, it is sexy, and it may pay off in the future, but the value is much less certain.

Humanoid robots that can do manual labor are going to be make or break for wealthy economies in the next two decades. Aging populations need help, and most successful nations do not have enough young people to do half the work they need done.

[deleted]
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