71–80 of 169 posts
Nothing wrong, necessarily, but Tesla doesn’t belong to that seven they never have.
What TSLA lacks in cashflow, they more than make-up in TAM. Make-up as in create out of thin air. We'll have self driving cars in a few months, robots, semi-trucks, etc., etc.
Page 8 for Oracle's free cash flow trending negative is really quite impactful. The Bloomberg AI bubble diagram [1] shows how this could really blow up. If Oracle falls they could take the whole market with them. We're just waiting on the mag 7 or any closely linked companies to fail to raise investment.
Page 16 really outlines how insane these evaluations are. I think most countries see it, hence aggressive selloffs of US bonds [2]. But everybody is just too insanely heavily exposed to it all now, it's going to wipe out everything. It's going to be a very awful time when heavily debt strapped countries can't issue debt anymore.
I think what we're going to see is some insane moves to keep these companies afloat longer in some desperate attempt to delay the pop, which will just make a bigger bubble. I could see Nvidia for example issuing bonds in excess of $100bn soon if the market has appetite for it [3].
[2] https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-japan-uae-india-sell...
[3] https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-raises-over-21-5bn-...
Apollo should be smart enough to know that you can't draw any conclusions from 1 month of market data (especially when there was a big, relevant IPO).
I'm astoundingly unimpressed by the quality of this slide deck. There's no analysis except that crammed into slide titles, like it's designed to bombard a room full of analysts with so many graphs that they shut off their critical thinking. Could a freshman business student not make this? Could a freshman business student with an LLM not make something more convincing than this? I agree with the headline, but this re…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, but when their run ends they tend to underperform. Every time.
If a stock market observation has no predictive power, then it's worthless. I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."
Nothing wrong, necessarily, but Tesla doesn’t belong to that seven they never have.
What TSLA lacks in cashflow, they more than make-up in TAM. Make-up as in create out of thin air. We'll have self driving cars in a few months, robots, semi-trucks, etc., etc.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, but when their run ends they tend to underperform. Every time.
If a stock market observation has no predictive power, then it's worthless. I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."
You can tell these guys know nothing about LLMs or how they’re provided. I love how they show OpenRouter’s graph of token usage as if it speaks for usage across the board. DeepSeek looks like the king because people who use Anthropic and OpenAI use them on either a direct basis or AWS Bedrock … And the bar chart for token costs, really? As if that’s information? Their sources are the API docs ffs. If they had at leas…
Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN. Their argument that the Mag 7 is burning up all of their free cash flow is factually accurate, as the returns are not materializing for the investments being made (ie underperformance).
Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform: > […] Since 1926, the median ten-year return on individual U.S. stocks relative to the broad equity market is –7.9%, underperforming by 0.82% per year. For stocks that have been among the top 20% performers over the previous five years, the median ten-year market-adjusted return falls to –17.8%, underperforming by 1.94% per year. Since the end of Wo…
This is more of a mathematical axiom than a financial effect, because you're defining "underperform/overperform" with respect to an average that contains them.