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Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

apollo.com

21–30 of 169 posts

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN. Their argument that the Mag 7 is burning up all of their free cash flow is factually accurate, as the returns are not materializing for the investments being made (ie underperformance).

> Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN Ah, the old _argumentum ad giletum Patagoniae_

in pecunia veritas , an old HN favorite.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#23
What has been the best way to determine return on the AI specific capex for hyperscalers?

I would naively expect Microsoft’s to be the highest since they are probably mainly just selling access to their capex through cloud since they aren’t seriously pursuing frontier AI, I’d imagine Google to be in the middle (selling TPUs, general cloud GPUs, Gemini, revenue lift on ads from better AI) but also spending heavily on infra to compete with OAI/ Anthropic, and then Meta to be on the low end since they are likely getting serious revenue lift from AI but not monetizing their models by API.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#25
post #20

I like that the invisible hand of market is slapping the Mag-7 for capex which is the only way to discipline them. Investors are waking up to say: hey, you are spending all your profits on data-centers, where is the return for me ? But, it surprises me that there are vast pools of capital which we collectively call the "market" that makes these calculations, or maybe a simpler causal explanation is the missing stock…

Why is Apple included though?

Share repurchases also aren't great I guess?

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#26
post #2

You can tell these guys know nothing about LLMs or how they’re provided. I love how they show OpenRouter’s graph of token usage as if it speaks for usage across the board. DeepSeek looks like the king because people who use Anthropic and OpenAI use them on either a direct basis or AWS Bedrock … And the bar chart for token costs, really? As if that’s information? Their sources are the API docs ffs. If they had at leas…

Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN. Their argument that the Mag 7 is burning up all of their free cash flow is factually accurate, as the returns are not materializing for the investments being made (ie underperformance).

If we're doing money=smart, the mag 7 control almost $4T in assets and cash, so wouldn't you trust them even more?

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#28
post #10

I guess "nothing lasts forever".

Of course. The rest 'n vest people at FAANG companies will tell you its lasts forever 6 years ago. Now they are scared for their jobs.

This is why we are seeing a correction at those companies, perks and free food going away with constant layoffs and all time low morale.

Now the party is at Nvidia. But I will tell you that that will not last forever either.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#29
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN. Their argument that the Mag 7 is burning up all of their free cash flow is factually accurate, as the returns are not materializing for the investments being made (ie underperformance).

If we're doing money=smart, the mag 7 control almost $4T in assets and cash, so wouldn't you trust them even more?

Not based on the evidence of how they allocate capital. Meta wasted $80B on the Metaverse, for example. Apollo allocates capital as their day job. Mag7 allocates by vibes.

https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/mark-z...

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/technology/mark-zuckerber... | https://archive.today/iEGAj

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#30

Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform: > […] Since 1926, the median ten-year return on individual U.S. stocks relative to the broad equity market is –7.9%, underperforming by 0.82% per year. For stocks that have been among the top 20% performers over the previous five years, the median ten-year market-adjusted return falls to –17.8%, underperforming by 1.94% per year. Since the end of Wo…

I mean these stocks have been performers for decades. If you posted this 10 years ago you'd look really wrong.
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