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Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

apollo.com

11–20 of 169 posts

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#11
post #7

On slide 6, they list the Mag7 stocks (not defined in a foreword), but on slide 8 they list the free cash flow (FCF) of a somewhat different set of companies. Why not stick to the Mag7 FCF only? It muddies the waters.

the FCF slide is for hyperscalers - which excludes TSLA, NVDA

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#12
This feels like telecom "massive demand, bad returns".

If a good enough model can be swapped in every few months, the value moves away from the model and toward cheap inference. That is great for users, but not always great for returns on huge capex.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#13
post #7

On slide 6, they list the Mag7 stocks (not defined in a foreword), but on slide 8 they list the free cash flow (FCF) of a somewhat different set of companies. Why not stick to the Mag7 FCF only? It muddies the waters.

Apple is not burning its cash on buildout, which would make their graph less interesting.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#14
I like that the invisible hand of market is slapping the Mag-7 for capex which is the only way to discipline them. Investors are waking up to say: hey, you are spending all your profits on data-centers, where is the return for me ? But, it surprises me that there are vast pools of capital which we collectively call the "market" that makes these calculations, or maybe a simpler causal explanation is the missing stock repurchase bid. At some point, one of the hyperscalers (msft ?) will break from the pack and announce reductions to capex and increase stock repurchases to stem the decline.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#15
post #2

You can tell these guys know nothing about LLMs or how they’re provided. I love how they show OpenRouter’s graph of token usage as if it speaks for usage across the board. DeepSeek looks like the king because people who use Anthropic and OpenAI use them on either a direct basis or AWS Bedrock … And the bar chart for token costs, really? As if that’s information? Their sources are the API docs ffs. If they had at leas…

Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN. Their argument that the Mag 7 is burning up all of their free cash flow is factually accurate, as the returns are not materializing for the investments being made (ie underperformance).

The Mag 7 spending around $700B on capex this year, expected around a trillion next year.

That's more than their combined FCF, and they're borrowing to bridge the gap.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#16
post #2

You can tell these guys know nothing about LLMs or how they’re provided. I love how they show OpenRouter’s graph of token usage as if it speaks for usage across the board. DeepSeek looks like the king because people who use Anthropic and OpenAI use them on either a direct basis or AWS Bedrock … And the bar chart for token costs, really? As if that’s information? Their sources are the API docs ffs. If they had at leas…

Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN. Their argument that the Mag 7 is burning up all of their free cash flow is factually accurate, as the returns are not materializing for the investments being made (ie underperformance).

> Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN

Ah, the old _argumentum ad giletum Patagoniae_

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#17

This feels like telecom "massive demand, bad returns". If a good enough model can be swapped in every few months, the value moves away from the model and toward cheap inference. That is great for users, but not always great for returns on huge capex.

The only mag 7 that had a shooter chance with models is Google rn so doesn’t seem like there being good enough models will be that negative for mag 7. Might even be better since they are the providers for the inference

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#19
See also:

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/magnificent-7-stoc...

> The once high-flying "Magnificent Seven" are looking more like the Dreadful Seven.

> The why: Wall Street is growing increasingly impatient with Big Tech's astronomical capital expenditures on artificial intelligence, projected to balloon 70% to exceed $700 billion this year.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#20

I like that the invisible hand of market is slapping the Mag-7 for capex which is the only way to discipline them. Investors are waking up to say: hey, you are spending all your profits on data-centers, where is the return for me ? But, it surprises me that there are vast pools of capital which we collectively call the "market" that makes these calculations, or maybe a simpler causal explanation is the missing stock…

Why is Apple included though?
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