Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
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Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
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Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
#2You can tell these guys know nothing about LLMs or how they’re provided. I love how they show OpenRouter’s graph of token usage as if it speaks for usage across the board. DeepSeek looks like the king because people who use Anthropic and OpenAI use them on either a direct basis or AWS Bedrock …
And the bar chart for token costs, really? As if that’s information? Their sources are the API docs ffs. If they had at least modeled something to estimate token costs that would be interesting, but showing the public prices and calling it research is dumb.
Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
#3This seems healthy to me. A market where returns are less dependent on seven mega-cap names is probably more stable, not less. If earnings growth broadens out and capital starts flowing back toward quality and free cash flow outside the obvious AI winners, that should reduce concentration risk and make the whole market less fragile.
Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
#4You can tell these guys know nothing about LLMs or how they’re provided. I love how they show OpenRouter’s graph of token usage as if it speaks for usage across the board. DeepSeek looks like the king because people who use Anthropic and OpenAI use them on either a direct basis or AWS Bedrock … And the bar chart for token costs, really? As if that’s information? Their sources are the API docs ffs. If they had at leas…
Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN. Their argument that the Mag 7 is burning up all of their free cash flow is factually accurate, as the returns are not materializing for the investments being made (ie underperformance).
Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
#5You can tell these guys know nothing about LLMs or how they’re provided. I love how they show OpenRouter’s graph of token usage as if it speaks for usage across the board. DeepSeek looks like the king because people who use Anthropic and OpenAI use them on either a direct basis or AWS Bedrock … And the bar chart for token costs, really? As if that’s information? Their sources are the API docs ffs. If they had at leas…
"I love how they show OpenRouter’s graph of token usage as if it speaks for usage across the board."
I'm not sure what was said during what looks like a deck of a presentation? I'm hoping it wasn't this, because that's an obvious misfire.
Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
#6Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform:
> […] Since 1926, the median ten-year return on individual U.S. stocks relative to the broad equity market is –7.9%, underperforming by 0.82% per year. For stocks that have been among the top 20% performers over the previous five years, the median ten-year market-adjusted return falls to –17.8%, underperforming by 1.94% per year. Since the end of World War II, the median ten-year market-adjusted return of recent winners has been negative for 93% of the time. The case for diversifying concentrated positions in individual stocks, particularly in recent market winners, is even stronger than most investors realize.
* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4541122
Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
#7On slide 6, they list the Mag7 stocks (not defined in a foreword), but on slide 8 they list the free cash flow (FCF) of a somewhat different set of companies. Why not stick to the Mag7 FCF only? It muddies the waters.
Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
#8It is less that the Mag 7 is starting to underperform and more that a market correction is likely and coming very soon.
Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
#9You can tell these guys know nothing about LLMs or how they’re provided. I love how they show OpenRouter’s graph of token usage as if it speaks for usage across the board. DeepSeek looks like the king because people who use Anthropic and OpenAI use them on either a direct basis or AWS Bedrock … And the bar chart for token costs, really? As if that’s information? Their sources are the API docs ffs. If they had at leas…
Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN. Their argument that the Mag 7 is burning up all of their free cash flow is factually accurate, as the returns are not materializing for the investments being made (ie underperformance).
> Apollo Group has $1T assets under management, I believe them over most folks on HN
If only that's a measure of if they know how to time the stock market. The real measure is how much they earn not if their sales or marketing department manages to get more customers.
Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]
#10I guess "nothing lasts forever".