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US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

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Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#51

Post by leonidasrup »

cucumber3732842 wrote: post #48
psd1 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how you calibrate your "niche" scale, but foundries and aluminium smelting plants have commonly been sited near generators in Britain. I suppose that transmission losses matter at the GW scale; and also that a national grid is a complex system, with phase slump being a cause of failure even with sufficient generation capacity. Every DC I've visited - probably ten - has on-site generators, for redundancy. To…

>, but foundries and aluminium smelting plants have commonly been sited near generators in Britain. IDK about Britain, especially historically when you would have been building aluminum smelters. It's not normal in the US more or less since the advent of the grid. I'm sure people will be along shortly to construe exceptions or special cases where the fossil fuels were extra cheap as the norm or heat was what they als…

In most places aluminum smelters have been located near power plants, because aluminum smelters have large electricity demand and transporting large amounts of electricity over large distances is expensive (high capacity power lines are expensive).

Electricity costs are between 40% - 50% of costs of the finished aluminum.

Also, reliability.

"Due to the nature of the process, power outages have the potential to cause damage to production cells as the molten liquids could solidify in absence of adequate current. For this reason, production facilities need to be near secure and reliable sources of energy."

https://arcticecon.wordpress.com/2012/02/15/aluminium-smelti...

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#52

Post by ZeroGravitas »

everfrustrated wrote: post #31
adornKey wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Unlike loads involving a real physical process there is absolutely no need for AI-training to be constant.

You are correct in the sense that they can stop work in a way many generic server use cases can't (which is seen in lowering power supply reliability requirements as the article mentions), but running expensive servers at 50% utilization would dramatically affect the revenue generated per capital invested - IE you couldn't afford to buy the servers.

If it just costs more, similar to how it's possible to have a low water use datacenter, then in a perfect spherical cow economic universe then the lower cost option is better.

In the real world you'd need to add some cost to account for the externalities on water and GHG.

Do the numbers still work out for the gas powered plant? If not then you're just exploiting unaccounted for externalities.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#53

Post by psd1 »

logicchains wrote: post #20
rapsey wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a defeatist EU attitude that leads to the worse outcomes. Expensive power and a failing economy. There is money now for a huge investment boom, which is what is happening in the US and China. With EU failing completely.

>There is money now for a huge investment boom Not in western Europe, because they spent almost all their excess economic output over the past few decades on welfare/transfer payments.

Are you aware that public spending is a transfer from the public sector to the private, and that poor people spend approximately 100% of their income? Would you argue that stock buy-backs are a better use of public money?

At some point, probably in the 80s, the prophets of Mammon convinced policymakers that the liquidity of capital markets was the highest good, that no liquidity was enough, and that the financial class is inherently productive.

When we bailed out the banks in 2008, it amounted to a wealth transfer from the public purse to Jamie Dimon. That's your counterproductive welfare spending.

Texas had blackouts last year because free-market fundamentalism. Perhaps Texans should run their fridges on investment boom.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#54

Post by polski-g »

usrnm wrote: post #37
parineum wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The grid is a shared resource, used by enterprise and individuals. If some class of consumers demand an outsized share of that resource, they should pay an outsized share of its maintenance and development. I don't see that happening. That makes sense up until you realize that the data centers aren't just burning watts for fun. They're providing a service that is in extremely high demand to a very high amount of th…

And we have a perfect instrument to express this relationship: money. If the service is really important to people they will pay money for it, and the companies can pay some of that money to utility providers. The economy works as intended, everyone is happy. Absolutely no need to invent subsidies or move the burden onto consumers

The problem is that the datacenters need grid investments. And if the utility makes those debt-backed investments but then the DC goes bankrupt, households are on the hook for the debt servicing.

Utilities requiring ten year of prepayment from the DCs makes sense.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#55

Post by ZeroGravitas »

everfrustrated wrote: post #34
rapsey wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was my point. We in the EU are destroying ourselves. The US is racing ahead and investing in all kinds of power generation technologies.

The difference is Europeans expect government to "fix" things. Americans expect companies to do that. Eg, the disastrous energy policies all across Europe which have made price of energy insanely high with no hope of ever coming down (these high prices are all locked in with long term contracts). America just builds lots of new power. Because of fewer market distorting policies the new power comes online at cheaper m…

Texas's CO2 per KWh of electricity (which is roughly equal to the US as a whole) at about 330 is equidistant between China's (470) and EU's (190) it is not close to the greenest in the West.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#56

Post by expedition32 »

everfrustrated wrote: post #35
marcyb5st wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And especially terrible for the communities that have to live with gas turbines or other local power generators as neighbors. Noise and air pollution constantly [1]. But fuck them, they are poor people so we don't care about them /s . Additionally, people against data centers are accused of being paid by China [2] [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/13/elon-mus... [2] https://fortune.com/2026/06/10/k…

It wasn't long ago that every city had a coal power station right in the center of it. Things aren't nearly as bad as you suggest.

It's called progress. People like clean air and rivers that don't glow.

Sacrificing it all for making tech bros richer seems like a ridiculously bad play.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#57

Post by polski-g »

stouset wrote: post #38
trhway wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternatively the crisis can be used to accelerate right development - quickly build up solar farms and transmission lines. Both of these can be done quickly if there were a political will. Yet, that will is missing. So, we're talking 40GW. Lets see what China does: https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-tre... "In the first two months of 2026, China added: 32.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacit…

If we build a terawatt of green energy capacity then turn around and immediately use it for datacenters rather than to replace fossil fuel generation, we haven’t gained anything. If anything we’ve lost out .

You gained the datacenter, which is providing a highly desired service... Are you European?

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#58

Post by polski-g »

marcyb5st wrote: post #5
alex_duf wrote: post #3

What an absolute ecological disaster. If bubble there is, now would be a great time for it to pop.

And especially terrible for the communities that have to live with gas turbines or other local power generators as neighbors. Noise and air pollution constantly [1]. But fuck them, they are poor people so we don't care about them /s . Additionally, people against data centers are accused of being paid by China [2] [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/13/elon-mus... [2] https://fortune.com/2026/06/10/k…

If their property is damaged they can sue. We have a system for this.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#59

Post by leonidasrup »

trhway wrote: post #4
alex_duf wrote: post #3

What an absolute ecological disaster. If bubble there is, now would be a great time for it to pop.

Alternatively the crisis can be used to accelerate right development - quickly build up solar farms and transmission lines. Both of these can be done quickly if there were a political will. Yet, that will is missing. So, we're talking 40GW. Lets see what China does: https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-tre... "In the first two months of 2026, China added: 32.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacit…

Proponents of solar power always like to equate 1 GW of solar power capacity with 1 GW of wind power capacity or 1 GW of thermal power capacity, ignoring capacity factors, ignoring need for reliable backup.

Sometimes they ignore the transportation costs, as for example: capital costs for transporting 1 GW of electricity over 1,000 km using High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) technology costs more then the 1 GW peak solar power plant attached to the power line.

China builds everything solar, coal, wind, hydro, nuclear. So if you want follow the example of China, then you have to, like China, build everything and don't just pick one part of Chinas energy strategy.

Also I would not present China as an example of market capitalism, they have a very strong government capitalism. Probably the strongest government capitalism in the world.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#60

Post by marcyb5st »

everfrustrated wrote: post #35
marcyb5st wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And especially terrible for the communities that have to live with gas turbines or other local power generators as neighbors. Noise and air pollution constantly [1]. But fuck them, they are poor people so we don't care about them /s . Additionally, people against data centers are accused of being paid by China [2] [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/13/elon-mus... [2] https://fortune.com/2026/06/10/k…

It wasn't long ago that every city had a coal power station right in the center of it. Things aren't nearly as bad as you suggest.

Let's go back to have open air sewers while we are at it. I mean, if the goal is to bring back stuff that lowered life expectancy and reduce 50+ years of progress, I don't see why not. I really believe that as arguments go, yours is truly terrible.

Additionally, you proved my point that the majority really doesn't care about the folks whose quality of life worsen because someone built a datacenter close to their homes. Or the fact that turbines still pollute the air with NOx emissions (which cause lung cancer and other respiratory problems).

You are basically saying that it is not so bad, but (I guess) it is because you aren't close to a datacenter not depending on the grid. And I trust more hearing about live accounts of people being affected, than a "trust me bro, it is not as bad". Are the accounts cherry-picked? Maybe, but they are also supported by videos that substantiate what they are saying.

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