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US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

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Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#31

Post by everfrustrated »

adornKey wrote: post #17
PunchyHamster wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

solar farms are worst kind of power source for constant loads like datacenters running AI training

Why? Unlike loads involving a real physical process there is absolutely no need for AI-training to be constant.

You are correct in the sense that they can stop work in a way many generic server use cases can't (which is seen in lowering power supply reliability requirements as the article mentions), but running expensive servers at 50% utilization would dramatically affect the revenue generated per capital invested - IE you couldn't afford to buy the servers.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#32

Post by cucumber3732842 »

Humorist2290 wrote: post #19

Interesting analysis. In it they say Worse, the burden [generating energy] increasingly falls on the buyer [data center developers] I don't believe this is worse, but appropriate. The grid is a shared resource, used by enterprise and individuals. If some class of consumers demand an outsized share of that resource, they should pay an outsized share of its maintenance and development. I don't see that happening. It's…

It's not "worse" per-say in that the buyer is crunching the numbers and deciding to go with on-prem generation for a lot of their jiggling electrons.

But holy shit is something broken if that sort of approach is more economically effective (middle of nowhere Alaska not withstanding) than having the people who not only specialize in pipes for jiggling electrons, but have all sorts of preferable treatment from regulators and expertise in financing these sorts of things, just enlarge the size of the pipe to your door.

Furthermore, the grid wants to be as big as it can for basically all the same inflow/outflow smoothy reasons a bank or an insurer wants to be. Something is very, very broken here if big, highly financed corporate interests are saying "no I'm not gonna get all my power from the grid" and the grid is saying "actually this is fine". They should be jumping at the chance to essentially have someone else at least partly subsidize their improvements.

Everyone wants to whine about future volatility, will the data centers be around to pay for what they ordered, etc, etc. But the energy industry has a long, long, long track record of financing this risk away. Oil and related energy infra has been boom and busting for over a century.

30yr ago it would have been unfathomable that anyone without an extremely niche case would go where the energy is rather than just ordering up power from the grid.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#33

Post by everfrustrated »

logicchains wrote: post #15
alex_duf wrote: post #3

What an absolute ecological disaster. If bubble there is, now would be a great time for it to pop.

By that logic almost any kind of economic development is an ecological disaster because it uses power.

Welcome to European thought

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#34

Post by everfrustrated »

rapsey wrote: post #21
logicchains wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There is money now for a huge investment boom Not in western Europe, because they spent almost all their excess economic output over the past few decades on welfare/transfer payments.

That was my point. We in the EU are destroying ourselves. The US is racing ahead and investing in all kinds of power generation technologies.

The difference is Europeans expect government to "fix" things. Americans expect companies to do that.

Eg, the disastrous energy policies all across Europe which have made price of energy insanely high with no hope of ever coming down (these high prices are all locked in with long term contracts).

America just builds lots of new power. Because of fewer market distorting policies the new power comes online at cheaper marginal rates so the price doesn't go up. And now Texas has some of the greener and cheapest energy in the West.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#35

Post by everfrustrated »

marcyb5st wrote: post #5
alex_duf wrote: post #3

What an absolute ecological disaster. If bubble there is, now would be a great time for it to pop.

And especially terrible for the communities that have to live with gas turbines or other local power generators as neighbors. Noise and air pollution constantly [1]. But fuck them, they are poor people so we don't care about them /s . Additionally, people against data centers are accused of being paid by China [2] [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/13/elon-mus... [2] https://fortune.com/2026/06/10/k…

It wasn't long ago that every city had a coal power station right in the center of it. Things aren't nearly as bad as you suggest.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#36

Post by [deleted] »

clarionbell wrote: post #12
trhway wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternatively the crisis can be used to accelerate right development - quickly build up solar farms and transmission lines. Both of these can be done quickly if there were a political will. Yet, that will is missing. So, we're talking 40GW. Lets see what China does: https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-tre... "In the first two months of 2026, China added: 32.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacit…

I like how balanced their energy mix is. It is very obvious that China is optimizing for capacity and availability. There isn't really a push for clean energy sources for political, or climate, reasons. They are deployed when it makes sense, backed up by robust coal and nuclear sources. In Europe, we approach energy generation as a political, or climate problem. We are building solar and wind power sources, not to ma…

[deleted]

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#37

Post by usrnm »

parineum wrote: post #29
Humorist2290 wrote: post #19

Interesting analysis. In it they say Worse, the burden [generating energy] increasingly falls on the buyer [data center developers] I don't believe this is worse, but appropriate. The grid is a shared resource, used by enterprise and individuals. If some class of consumers demand an outsized share of that resource, they should pay an outsized share of its maintenance and development. I don't see that happening. It's…

> The grid is a shared resource, used by enterprise and individuals. If some class of consumers demand an outsized share of that resource, they should pay an outsized share of its maintenance and development. I don't see that happening. That makes sense up until you realize that the data centers aren't just burning watts for fun. They're providing a service that is in extremely high demand to a very high amount of th…

And we have a perfect instrument to express this relationship: money. If the service is really important to people they will pay money for it, and the companies can pay some of that money to utility providers. The economy works as intended, everyone is happy. Absolutely no need to invent subsidies or move the burden onto consumers

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#38

Post by stouset »

trhway wrote: post #4
alex_duf wrote: post #3

What an absolute ecological disaster. If bubble there is, now would be a great time for it to pop.

Alternatively the crisis can be used to accelerate right development - quickly build up solar farms and transmission lines. Both of these can be done quickly if there were a political will. Yet, that will is missing. So, we're talking 40GW. Lets see what China does: https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-tre... "In the first two months of 2026, China added: 32.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacit…

If we build a terawatt of green energy capacity then turn around and immediately use it for datacenters rather than to replace fossil fuel generation, we haven’t gained anything. If anything we’ve lost out.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#39

Post by toast0 »

clarionbell wrote: post #12
trhway wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternatively the crisis can be used to accelerate right development - quickly build up solar farms and transmission lines. Both of these can be done quickly if there were a political will. Yet, that will is missing. So, we're talking 40GW. Lets see what China does: https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-tre... "In the first two months of 2026, China added: 32.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacit…

I like how balanced their energy mix is. It is very obvious that China is optimizing for capacity and availability. There isn't really a push for clean energy sources for political, or climate, reasons. They are deployed when it makes sense, backed up by robust coal and nuclear sources. In Europe, we approach energy generation as a political, or climate problem. We are building solar and wind power sources, not to ma…

China is building all types of generation because they are rapidly growing their electric network (generation doubled from 2014 to 2024).

Europe's generation is roughly flat during the same period.

It doesn't make sense to build a lot of everything in a system without growth in generation. Replacing decommisioned generators would be enough. Growth in solar and wind generation (for ideological or economic reasons) means there's less reason to build new capacity of other types. There's complications there with firm vs intermittent capacity, but that's a different discussion.

US electrical generation was also flat from 2000 to 2020, but seems to be growing again since then, but not anywhere near China's growth rate.

Re: US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

#40

Post by Tade0 »

rapsey wrote: post #28
Tade0 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an (eastern) European this is to me a greater concern than the Russian invasion in terms of availability of gas for the winter, considering how so many of those places run on gas turbines. Putin only has a certain amount of the resource on tap and sells it to someone eventually. Meanwhile data centers will eat up whatever you throw at them at any price, especially that in principle they don't need to be connected…

The US has incredible gas reserves. Much more that can be exported with ships.

The issue is with the price - why bother shipping LNG half the planet when one can just sell it at a significant markup domestically?

When the price is right all kinds of contracts and agreements are usually thrown out the window - especially if the penalties are small enough to make it worth it.

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